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MEM

Memphis 39 at Penn State 53

PSU
2019 · Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · Dec 28, 2019 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.5PSU 63.4%Riley Patterson 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 36 - HOME 38 · Q3 3:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:32 · Riley Patterson 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior+5.2Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:15: Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +8.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:16: Brady White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +13.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 0:38: Brady White pass intercepted for a TD Garrett Taylor return for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:01: Riley Patterson 42 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +12.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:31: Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Clifford pass to Pat Freiermuth for Two-Point Conversion) — PSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:51PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52MEM 4th & 20 at PSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:31PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:55MEM 4th & 12 at PSU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:56PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:41MEM 4th & 14 at MEM 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:01MEM 4th & 29 at MEM 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:01MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:24MEM 4th & 14 at PSU 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:13PSU 4th & 20 at MEM 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−4.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:32MEM 4th & 10 at PSU 23, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:53PSU 4th & 1 at MEM 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−3.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−14.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:01MEM 4th & 8 at PSU 24, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−8.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:17PSU 4th & 7 at MEM 41, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%
    32% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:56PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:44MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:14PSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:47PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:51PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:15MEM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:51PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:16MEM Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:38PSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:31PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0667% → 67%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
66.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
66.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+59
66.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 59 yds , Traveon Samuel returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:5933% → 34%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
66.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+40
66.8%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 40 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
66.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 6 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
66.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
66.5%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 7 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
66.4%
Kenneth Gainwell run for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
66.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 15 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
66.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-10
66.1%
Calvin Austin III run for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 20
OPP 30
0
66.4%
Brady White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 20
OPP 30
+48
66.3%
Riley Patterson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5566% → 68%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
66.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 31 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
67.5%
Journey Brown run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1133% → 36%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.0%
Kedarian Jones run for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
67.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+56
67.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 56 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
66.2%
Brady White pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 9 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+5
66.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1265% → 64%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by Jonathan Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
64.7%
Sean Clifford sacked by Bryce Huff and Chris Claybrooks for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
64.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:3635% → 38%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
64.6%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 12 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
64.3%
Antonio Gibson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
64.1%
Brady White run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
64.0%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
63.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+19
63.9%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 19 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
63.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-10
63.2%
Gainwell, Kenneth rush for 11 yards to the PENNST6, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (Thomas, Brian) 10 yards to the PENNST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 20
OPP 27
0
63.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kenneth GainwellSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+8
64.0%
Brady White run for 8 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+37
61.9%
Riley Patterson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5863% → 61%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.7%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
62.4%
Noah Cain run for 15 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
63.1%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
63.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-2
62.7%
Sean Clifford sacked by Xavier Cullens for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
61.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 39 yds, downed at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1539% → 38%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
61.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
61.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Patrick Taylor Jr.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-5
61.4%
White, Brady pass complete to Taylor Jr., Patrick for 8 yards to the MEMPHIS24, PENALTY MEMPHIS illegal formation 5 yards to the MEMPHIS11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 11
0
61.4%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
61.6%
Adam Williams punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:2763% → 68%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
62.6%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
62.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 10 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
63.1%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
63.0%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+8
61.9%
Sean Clifford run for 8 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
62.0%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+15
61.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 15 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.1%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -19 yds · 2:1234% → 33%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
65.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
65.9%
Kenneth Gainwell run for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-9
66.1%
Brady White sacked by Micah Parsons for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 11 Brady White fumbled, forced by Micah Parsons, recovered by Memph Obinna Eze , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+5
66.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-10
66.4%
Brady White sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 6Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 29
OWN 6
0
67.2%
Adam Williams punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:1468% → 75%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
68.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Jonathan Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+16
67.0%
Sean Clifford run for 16 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
69.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 19 yds to the Memph 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.6%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:3926% → 25%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
73.7%
Brady White run for 5 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+5
73.8%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 5 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
74.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Brian Thomas) to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
74.2%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for no gain to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
75.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
75.5%
Adam Williams punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
81.6%
Journey Brown run for 56 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3521% → 28%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.3%
Calvin Austin III run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
79.1%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 7 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
80.2%
Brady White pass complete to Tyce Daniel for 9 yds Tyce Daniel fumbled, recovered by Memph Kenneth GainwellSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+10
79.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 10 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+41
79.8%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 41 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
80.0%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.7%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:2375% → 84%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
75.3%
Ricky Slade run for 44 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
77.6%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
78.5%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+6
77.9%
Ricky Slade run for 6 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
78.9%
Ricky Slade run for 4 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
79.1%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+4
77.1%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
78.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Nick BowersSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
78.1%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16END OF HALF
12 plays · 49 yds · 0:5017% → 22%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.6%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 12 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
82.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 2 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
82.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Antonio GibsonSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+13
82.0%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 13 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
79.9%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 7 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+8
79.0%
Brady White pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 8 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
78.7%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 7 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+44
78.3%
Riley Patterson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4320% → 36%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
79.9%
Brady White run for 5 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
79.9%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 12 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+30
79.4%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 30 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
77.6%
Kedarian Jones pass complete to Brady White for 25 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.9%
Brady White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0671% → 71%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Austin Hall return for no gain to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4536% → 34%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-9
63.8%
Brady White sacked by PJ Mustipher for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+10
67.0%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 10 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-5
65.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Obinna Eze) to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
67.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+51
66.1%
Riley Patterson 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:0466% → 70%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
65.8%
Journey Brown run for 8 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+20
67.5%
Journey Brown run for 20 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
69.2%
Clifford, Sean pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the PENNST49 (Joseph, Morris), fumble forced by Joseph, Morris, fumble by Clifford, Sean recovered by PENNST Menet, Michal at PENNST49, PENALTY MEMPHIS substitution infraction 5 yards to the MEMPHIS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+13
69.2%
Noah Cain run for 13 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
70.1%
Noah Cain run for 10 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
70.1%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-4
70.2%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
68.8%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Hamler, KJ, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (Francis, Jacobi) off-setting, PENALTY PENNST Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-10
68.8%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to George, Daniel for 16 yards to the MEMPHIS1, PENALTY PENNST holding (Fries, Will) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 20
OPP 27
0
66.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 20
OPP 27
+45
69.9%
Jake Pinegar 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:4031% → 37%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
69.0%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 14 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
67.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 10 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
65.3%
White, Brady pass incomplete to Jones, Kedarian, PENALTY MEMPHIS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MEMPHIS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+10
68.0%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 10 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+10
64.8%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
64.8%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 9 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
63.2%
Kenneth Gainwell run for no gain to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
64.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
62.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
63.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
64.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Antonio GibsonSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
63.4%
Riley Patterson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:3865% → 67%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
65.2%
Journey Brown run for 44 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
70.2%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
70.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+6
68.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 6 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
66.9%
Journey Brown run for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:1536% → 16%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
63.8%
Kenneth Gainwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+5
64.5%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 5 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+15
83.8%
Brady White pass intercepted for a TD Garrett Taylor return for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:3617% → 28%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.9%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 11 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
82.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 13 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
80.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+7
81.8%
Brady White pass complete to Kameron Wilson for 7 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-5
80.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Brian Thomas) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 9
50
+24
82.6%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 24 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
79.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Antonio GibsonSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-9
79.9%
Brady White sacked by Micah Parsons for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+11
84.8%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 11 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
71.9%
Riley Patterson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2983% → 96%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.7%
Journey Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
82.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Daniel George for 7 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
83.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Daniel George for 8 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
85.1%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
85.6%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+20
85.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 20 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
86.7%
Noah Cain run for 11 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
87.2%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+7
87.6%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
87.7%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+3
88.3%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Clifford pass to Pat Freiermuth for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26INT
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:546% → 7%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.0%
Antonio Gibson run for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+31
93.8%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 31 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
93.2%
Brady White sacked by Robert Windsor for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+27
93.7%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 27 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
92.8%
Brady White pass intercepted Marquis Wilson return for 13 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27DOWNS
15 plays · 49 yds · 4:1997% → 99%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
96.6%
Journey Brown run for 18 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
97.0%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+9
97.7%
KJ Hamler run for 9 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
98.0%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
98.1%
Journey Brown run for 6 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
98.2%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.3%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
98.5%
Devyn Ford run for no gain to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+1
98.7%
Ricky Slade run for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+5
99.3%
KJ Hamler run for 5 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
98.6%
Brady White sacked by Jayson Oweh for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:38
Brady White pass intercepted for a TD Garrett Taylor return for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+19.3
TD · Q3 12:16
Brady White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
-13.7
FG · Q4 12:01
Riley Patterson 42 yd FG GOOD
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com