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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:01 · Adam Williams punt for 76 yds, downed at the Tulan 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:08: Justin McMillan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +5.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:08: Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 3 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +6.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:49: Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 46 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +13.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:19: Kenneth Gainwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +6.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 12:54: Riley Patterson 29 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 12:03TULN 4th & 14 at MEM 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snapGo for it42.7%−0.116% to convertField goalTheir call42.8%84% to makePunt42.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:54MEM 4th & 4 at TULN 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.0%48% to convertField goal56.8%−0.127% to makePunt56.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:04MEM 4th & 4 at TULN 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.8%48% to convertField goal56.7%−0.151% to makePunt56.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 9:03TULN 4th & 7 at midfield, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snapGo for it32.4%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%average punt
- Q3 12:54MEM 4th & 9 at TULN 11, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snapGo for it91.3%−0.727% to convertField goalTheir call91.9%87% to makePunt87.5%−4.4average punt
- Q3 12:51TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 49, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q3 7:53MEM 4th & 6 at TULN 16, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.338% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%81% to makePunt95.4%−3.3average punt
- Q3 5:16TULN 4th & 23 at MEM 39, down 30Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.17% to convertField goal0.7%−<0.136% to makePunt0.7%average punt
- Q3 3:28MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 31, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 15:00TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 34, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 8:01MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 18, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:44TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 9, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:26MEM 4th & 9 at TULN 39, up 30Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%32% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:05TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 15, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:04MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.6%97% to makeGo for two58.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:20MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick62.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call62.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:08TULN Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.1%97% to makeGo for two41.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:08MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.6%97% to makeGo for two68.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:49MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.4%97% to makeGo for two80.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two90.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:47MEM Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:07TULN Touchdown, down 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1FG8 plays · 61 yds · 2:5742% → 42%
MEMDrive 2TD12 plays · 65 yds · 3:5058% → 59%
Q1 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
57.8%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to JONES, K, PENALTY TLN illegal use of hands (MOODY, M.) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
50
-1
58.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+5
58.1%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 5 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
58.2%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 2 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+6
58.1%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 6 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+32
59.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 32 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3INT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
MEMDrive 4TD5 plays · 46 yds · 2:4761% → 64%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
60.5%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for no gain to the Tulan 46Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+30
60.4%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 30 yds to the Tulan 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
64.2%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1237% → 42%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds to the Tulan 34Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
62.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 4 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-10
62.4%
JONES, A. rush for 23 yards to the MEM33 (GONZALEZ, C), PENALTY TLN holding (DUBLIN, C.) 10 yards to the TLN34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+10
63.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 10 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+22
62.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 22 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+15
61.8%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 15 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
62.6%
Justin McMillan run for 10 yds to the Memph 1 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (Darnell Mooney) to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+8
63.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 8 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD14 plays · 49 yds · 3:5061% → 70%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
61.4%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie MEMPHIS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 15
OWN 46
-3
60.2%
Brady White run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 45 Brady White fumbled, recovered by Memph Kenneth GainwellSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+21
60.4%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 21 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-15
63.4%
WHITE, Brady pass complete to GIBSON, Antonio for 14 yards to the TLN0, clock 10:46, PENALTY MEM pass interference (COXIE, Damonte) 15 yards to the TLN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+22
61.5%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 22 yds to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
63.4%
GAINWELL, K rush for no gain to the TLN1 (GRAHAM, L.), PENALTY MEM illegal shift 5 yards to the TLN6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.1%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 3 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
MEMDrive 8TD10 plays · 90 yds · 4:4970% → 85%
Q2 6:38
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+12
69.8%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 12 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+6
70.9%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 6 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
71.7%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 5 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+46
85.4%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 46 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
82.1%
Justin McMillan pass intercepted Thomas Pickens return for 8 yds to the Tulan 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD3 plays · 21 yds · 1:1686% → 93%
TULNDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12FG8 plays · 64 yds · 1:5892% → 98%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+68
91.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 68 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
92.5%
Brady White run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 17 Brady White fumbled, recovered by Memph Brady WhiteSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+6
92.4%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 6 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14FG7 plays · 64 yds · 3:3898% → 99%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+37
98.1%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 37 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+15
98.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 15 yds to the Tulan 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
98.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian Jones, broken up by Jaylon MonroeSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+5
98.2%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 5 yds to the Tulan 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15INT14 plays · 36 yds · 2:371% → 1%
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
98.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 14 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
98.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 8 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 12 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell Mooney, broken up by Austin HallSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-13
99.3%
Justin McMillan sacked by Everitt Cunningham for a loss of 13 yards to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 23
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Justin McMillan pass intercepted Quindell Johnson return for no gain to the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:28
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+1
99.6%
Adam Williams punt for 49 yds , Amare Jones returns for 1 yd to the Tulan 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:180% → 0%
MEMDrive 18TD6 plays · 53 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q4 12:56
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+14
99.8%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to MAGNIFICO, Joey, PENALTY TLN pass interference (BROOKS, L.) 14 yards to the TLN31, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 27 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19TD5 plays · 85 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+37
99.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 22 yds to the MEMPHIS 47 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (Thomas Pickens) to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 32 yds for a TD, (Sterling Stockwell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 10
-5
99.9%
McMILLAN, J. pass incomplete to MCCLESKEY, J., PENALTY TLN pass interference (MCCLESKEY, J.) 5 yards to the TLN5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Cameron Carroll, broken up by Xavier Cullens TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+31
99.9%
Ryan Wright punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the MEMPHIS 45 TULANE Penalty, kick catching interference (Lawrence Graham) to the Tulan 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:26
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Adam Williams punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:49
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 46 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q2 9:08
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 3 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 0:19
Kenneth Gainwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+6.8