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MISS

Ole Miss 10 at Memphis 15

MEM
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:00 · Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense+6.0Pregame prior+6.5Garbage-time factor+1.5Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:40: Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson PAT failed) — MEM win probability +8.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:49: Scottie Phillips 1 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick) — MISS win probability +20.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:49: Casey Griffith kickoff for 62 yds , Antonio Gibson return for 17 yds to the Memph 20 — MEM win probability +6.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:20: Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 22 — MEM win probability +4.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:00: Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 30 — MEM win probability +10.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 11MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 14:07MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:41MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:23MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:21MISS 4th & 22 at MISS 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:31MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:26MISS 4th & 12 at MEM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:42MEM 4th & 8 at MISS 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:26MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:11MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:00MEM 4th & 1 at MISS 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−2.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:57MEM 4th & 10 at MISS 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:59MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:24MISS 4th & 5 at MEM 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:37MEM 4th & 12 at MISS 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:11MISS 4th & 5 at MEM 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−6.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:06MEM 4th & 1 at MISS 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−3.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:32MISS 4th & 2 at MEM 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−2.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:40MEM 4th & 1 at MISS 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−10.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−6.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:32MEM 4th & 7 at MISS 42, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−3.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−2.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:00MEM 4th & 2 at MISS 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.6%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 5:23MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:40MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:49MISS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3839% → 39%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
60.9%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
60.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
61.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
61.0%
Mac Brown punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1961% → 61%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
61.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 5 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
61.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
61.0%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for no gain to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+1
60.9%
Adam Williams punt for 41 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0739% → 39%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
60.9%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+3
60.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
61.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+4
61.1%
Mac Brown punt for 54 yds , Pop Williams returns for 4 yds to the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
17 plays · 74 yds · 5:4261% → 65%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
60.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 6 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-5
61.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+10
60.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 10 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
61.0%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 8 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+15
61.3%
White, Brady pass complete to Coxie, Damonte for loss of 3 yards to the MEMPHIS42, PENALTY OLEMISS personal foul 15 yards to the OLEMISS40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
61.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+1
61.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+3
61.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+11
61.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
61.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Joey Magnifico) to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+1
61.4%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 14
OPP 34
-3
61.4%
Brady White pass complete to Pop Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 17
OPP 32
+20
61.0%
Brady White pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 5 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
61.9%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 10 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
61.9%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 6 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.2%
Brady White 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:3936% → 34%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
64.2%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
64.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-7
65.2%
Matt Corral sacked by La'Andre Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 13Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+2
65.6%
Mac Brown punt for 53 yds , Pop Williams returns for 2 yds to the Memph 15 MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Block (Ladarius Jordan) to the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2965% → 65%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
65.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
65.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
65.3%
Brady White run for 1 yd to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+1
64.8%
Adam Williams punt for 44 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4935% → 34%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
65.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+34
64.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 19 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (La'Andre Thomas) to the Memph 44 for a 1ST down. La'Andre Thomas ejected for targeting.Similar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
63.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+11
63.9%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
63.2%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-5
63.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 16
OPP 36
0
64.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+4
65.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 4 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
66.2%
Luke Logan 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3367% → 67%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
66.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 15 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
67.6%
Brady White pass complete to Pop Williams for 17 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
68.3%
Brady White pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-5
67.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Manuel Orona-Lopez) to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 19
OPP 44
0
67.6%
Brady White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+11
67.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
67.0%
Brady White pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5934% → 33%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
66.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 15 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
65.1%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+2
66.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
66.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jerrion EalySimilar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
67.5%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Pop Williams at the Memph 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0968% → 67%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
67.5%
Brady White pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 2 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+2
67.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
67.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Joey MagnificoSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
67.1%
Adam Williams punt for 61 yds, downed at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0632% → 32%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
67.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
68.1%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Quindell Johnson return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 2:2871% → 70%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+5
70.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
70.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
70.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
69.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
71.4%
White, Brady pass incomplete, PENALTY MEMPHIS illegal formation 5 yards to the OLEMISS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+5
70.7%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
71.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
70.7%
Brady White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
70.3%
Adam Williams punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5430% → 28%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Demarcus GregorySimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Demarcus GregorySimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-3
71.5%
Matt Corral sacked by Joseph Dorceus for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+21
72.0%
Mac Brown punt for 41 yds , Pop Williams returns for 21 yds to the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:4573% → 83%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
73.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
73.7%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 8 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+1
73.6%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 1 yd to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+10
72.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 10 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
74.1%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 6 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16INT
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:1481% → 84%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
80.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Memph 31 Patrick Taylor Jr. fumbled, recovered by Memph Obinna Eze for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
81.1%
Brady White pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 22 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
82.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
82.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+8
82.4%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 8 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
83.4%
Brady White pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 8 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+4
83.6%
Brady White pass intercepted Benito Jones return for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:4620% → 18%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
80.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 16 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
79.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 8 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+2
79.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
79.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
79.8%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-2
80.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
82.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Scottie PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3385% → 85%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
84.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 12 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
85.8%
Brady White pass complete to Pop Williams for 23 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
86.2%
Brady White sacked by Josiah Coatney for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+3
86.0%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 15
OPP 40
-5
85.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Encroachment (-5 Yards) to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+8
85.7%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 8 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
85.4%
Adam Williams punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:0915% → 20%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
84.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 10 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
84.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
84.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Miles Battle for 6 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
84.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
84.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 36 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.4%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
83.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 5 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
83.9%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
79.9%
Luke Logan 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4482% → 83%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
82.1%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 14 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
83.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-5
83.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Manuel Orona-Lopez) to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+5
83.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+10
82.9%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 10 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-3
83.3%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1120% → 40%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
80.3%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 5
50
+7
79.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 7 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
80.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
80.5%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+3
81.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+3
83.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 3 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
80.1%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (Carter, T.J.) 15 yards to the MEMPHIS17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
79.7%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+15
80.5%
Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.8%
Scottie Phillips 1 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:4870% → 73%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
70.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+23
71.1%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 23 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
74.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
74.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
74.4%
Brady White pass complete to Pop Williams for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
72.6%
Brady White run for 1 yd to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
75.6%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-1
75.8%
Kenneth Gainwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-1
74.9%
Brady White sacked by Quentin Bivens and Ryder Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
73.0%
Adam Williams punt for 41 yds, downed at the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
73.8%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24END OF GAME
17 plays · 39 yds · 6:0084% → 95%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
83.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+4
83.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+11
83.2%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 11 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
86.3%
Traveon Samuel run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
87.7%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
88.0%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+4
89.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 4 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
91.5%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
91.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 9 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
94.8%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 7 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
95.2%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 5 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 25
-5
94.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:49
Scottie Phillips 1 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick)
-20.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:00
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 30
+10.7
TD · Q2 0:40
Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson PAT failed)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com