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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreMEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:48 · Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 6 yds to the Memph 24 lat. to Damonte Coxie for a loss of 15 yards to the Memph 24 lat. to Brady White for no gain to the Memph 24 to Damonte Coxie for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:21: Isaiah Wright 12 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Will Mobley Kick) — TEM win probability +15.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:08: Kenneth Gainwell 25 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +9.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:55: Kylan Watkins 23 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +9.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 12:48: Branden Mack 12 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Will Mobley Kick) — TEM win probability +18.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:58: Tyce Daniel 3 Yd pass from Brady White (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +23.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 15:00MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 47, tiedClose callPunted · 59.0% before the snapGo for it59.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:49TEM 4th & 1 at MEM 14, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snapGo for it46.9%71% to convertField goalTheir call46.5%−0.584% to makePunt45.0%−2.0average punt
- Q2 12:43TEM 4th & 3 at MEM 27, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snapGo for it61.8%52% to convertField goalTheir call61.0%−0.862% to makePunt55.9%−5.9average punt
- Q2 12:43MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 32, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snapGo for it41.6%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.9%average punt
- Q2 0:48TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 23, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it58.1%−3.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.0%average punt
- Q3 13:43TEM 4th & 6 at midfield, up 9Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snapGo for it65.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:48TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 27, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snapGo for it52.6%−2.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.3%average punt
- Q3 6:55MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 49, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt43.6%−3.3average punt
- Q3 5:26TEM 4th & 2 at MEM 41, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.3%57% to convertField goal55.3%−4.032% to makePunt56.1%−3.2average punt
- Q4 9:52TEM 4th & 2 at MEM 31, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.6%57% to convertField goal61.4%−4.254% to makePunt58.4%−7.2average punt
- Q4 2:46MEM 4th & 9 at TEM 43, down 2Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 33.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.4%−1.632% to convertField goal31.0%28% to makePunt26.8%−4.1average punt
- Q4 1:40TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 47, up 2Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it78.2%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 0:48MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 34, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.0%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.4%−2.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:51TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.6%97% to makeGo for two43.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:00MEM Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.8%97% to makeGo for two40.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:21TEM Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.8%97% to makeGo for two73.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:08MEM Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.7%97% to makeGo for two35.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:55MEM Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.8%97% to makeGo for two43.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:48TEM Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two83.8%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 9:58MEM Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.2%97% to makeGo for two34.5%−0.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMEMDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.2%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+13
36.2%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 13 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
36.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Harrison HandSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
36.2%
Adam Williams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2TD8 plays · 84 yds · 2:1537% → 40%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
37.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 10 yds to the Temp 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+16
37.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 1 yd to the Temp 35 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
50
+38
37.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 38 yds to the TEMPLE 12 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3INT4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
TEMDrive 4FG8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0941% → 43%
MEMDrive 5FUMBLE4 plays · 19 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q1 6:49
2ND & 1
50
+32
41.5%
Brady White sacked by DeAndre Kelly for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 12 Brady White fumbled, recovered by Temp Sam Franklin , return for 0 yards , return for 32 yds to the Memph 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6FG3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 49%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
45.0%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Jadan Blue, broken up by Quindell JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
45.0%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by Jacobi FrancisSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
48.8%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Jose Barbon, broken up by Jacobi FrancisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7FUMBLE6 plays · 56 yds · 0:0053% → 55%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
46.6%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to COXIE, Damonte, PENALTY TEM pass interference (BRASWELL,C.) 15 yards to the MEM40, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
46.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Khris BanksSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+43
46.4%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 43 yds to the Temp 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
45.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 19 Rodrigues Clark fumbled, forced by Dana Levine, recovered by Temp Quincy RocheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8FG14 plays · 54 yds · 5:5950% → 59%
MEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
TEMDrive 10FUMBLE10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q2 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
61.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 16 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
62.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 1 yd to the Temp 44Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+13
61.1%
RUSSO,Anthony pass incomplete to BLUE,Jadan (BLAKE, Sanchez), PENALTY MEM pass interference (BLAKE, Sanchez) 13 yards to the MEM43, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
62.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-5
61.7%
Re'Mahn Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 33 Re'Mahn Davis fumbled, recovered by Memph Joseph DorceusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD4 plays · 67 yds · 1:1637% → 47%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+36
63.4%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 36 yds to the Temp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3957% → 75%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by T.J. CarterSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
57.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 2 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
58.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 15 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
59.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 10 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
59.1%
RUSSO,Anthony pass incomplete to WRIGHT,Isaiah, PENALTY MEM holding (CARTER, TJ) 11 yards to the MEM12, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1330% → 43%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
69.3%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 10 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
68.9%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 19 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
67.8%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 14 yds to the Temp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT9 plays · -2 yds · 0:2062% → 62%
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
63.9%
DAVIS,Re'Mahn rush for 8 yards to the TEM38 (BROWN, Braylon), PENALTY TEM holding (HENNESSY,Matt) 10 yards to the TEM20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15END OF HALF4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Christian BraswellSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
63.8%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 12 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian Jones, broken up by Amir TylerSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-8
62.9%
Brady White sacked by Ifeanyi Maijeh for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 1:1763% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 2 yds to the Temp 27Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-10
65.5%
DAVIS,Re'Mahn rush for 54 yards to the MEM0, clock 13:43, PENALTY TEM holding (MOORE,Isaac) 10 yards to the TEM36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+14
64.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 6
50
0
64.8%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Kenny Yeboah, broken up by JJ RussellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD11 plays · 95 yds · 4:5936% → 51%
Q3 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+15
64.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 15 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+22
63.4%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 22 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
61.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 10 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-2
60.4%
Brady White sacked by Zack Mesday for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 46Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+18
62.0%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for 18 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
50.9%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 5 yds to the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20FUMBLE5 plays · 45 yds · 0:0059% → 61%
Q3 5:26
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+30
56.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jadan Blue for 30 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
60.7%
Branden Mack pass complete to Todd Centeio for 7 yds Todd Centeio fumbled, forced by T.J. Carter, recovered by Memph T.J. Carter , return for 3 yds to the Memph 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FUMBLE9 plays · 61 yds · 3:1545% → 49%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+23
55.4%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 8 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Sam Franklin) to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
52.6%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 3 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+24
54.2%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 24 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
51.3%
Brady White run for 3 yds to the Temp 45 Brady White fumbled, forced by Harrison Hand, recovered by Temp Amir Tyler , return for 13 yds to the Temp 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22TD5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5562% → 83%
MEMDrive 23TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5020% → 49%
Q4 12:48
2ND & 1
50
+10
76.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 10 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
76.6%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to GIBSON, Antonio (TYLER,Amir), PENALTY TEM holding (TYLER,Amir) 10 yards to the TEM30, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
75.1%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 27 yds to the Temp 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24DOWNS13 plays · 54 yds · 0:0062% → 64%
MEMDrive 25DOWNS9 plays · 27 yds · 2:3439% → 34%
Q4 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
61.9%
WHITE, Brady pass complete to MAGNIFICO, Joey for 7 yards to the MEM42 (RUSSELL,C.), PENALTY TEM holding (RUSSELL,C.) 10 yards to the MEM45, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
57.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 11 yds to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-2
60.5%
Brady White pass complete to Kenneth Gainwell for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0679% → 83%
Q4 1:40
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
82.9%
Adam Barry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Damonte Coxie at the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27DOWNS6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
82.4%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 8 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+10
81.2%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 10 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+6
84.0%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 6 yds to the Memph 24 lat. to Damonte Coxie for a loss of 15 yards to the Memph 24 lat. to Brady White for no gain to the Memph 24 to Damonte Coxie for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:58
Tyce Daniel 3 Yd pass from Brady White (Riley Patterson Kick)
-23.6
TD · Q4 12:48
Branden Mack 12 Yd pass from Anthony Russo (Will Mobley Kick)
+18.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16