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MEM

Memphis 42 at Tulsa 41

TLSA
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Adam Williams punt for 42 yds, downed at the Tulsa 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior−7.1Home team on offense−8.6Score differential−3.8Garbage-time factor−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:33: Kenneth Gainwell run for 62 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +15.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:27: Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 9:33: Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +31.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:14: Jacob Rainey 26 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +14.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:26: Kenneth Gainwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +43.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:39TLSA 4th & 11 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03TLSA 4th & 4 at MEM 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:53TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:49MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 34, up 14
    Close callPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:03TLSA 4th & 10 at MEM 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:25TLSA 4th & 4 at MEM 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:32MEM 4th & 10 at TLSA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:53TLSA 4th & 8 at MEM 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:19TLSA 4th & 9 at MEM 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:19MEM 4th & 1 at TLSA 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%−2.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:15TLSA 4th & 2 at MEM 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−1.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:25MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.4%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:14TLSA 4th & 6 at MEM 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−20.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00TLSA 4th & 3 at MEM 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−42.0
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−60.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:40MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:03MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:25MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:40TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:22MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:15TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:33MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:27TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:33TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:26MEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
24.2%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
24.2%
Brady White run for 3 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+5
24.2%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 5 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
24.2%
Antonio Gibson run for 7 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-10
25.0%
GAINWELL, K rush for 54 yards to the TLS0, clock 13:04, PENALTY MEM holding 10 yards to the MEM36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+15
25.1%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 15 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
24.9%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 24 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
24.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
24.5%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 20 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+22
24.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 22 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
25.1%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 11
50
0
25.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 11
50
0
24.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 11
50
+8
24.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 43 yds , Traveon Samuel returns for 8 yds to the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:4375% → 77%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
25.2%
Kenneth Gainwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+3
25.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 3 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+43
25.4%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 43 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
24.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
22.9%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 40 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
23.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
23.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
23.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+12
23.8%
Zach Smith run for 12 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
24.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
24.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
24.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+37
23.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 42 yds for a touchback TULSA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.6%
Kylan Watkins run for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
22.5%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
22.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Tyon Davis MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
23.0%
Adam Williams punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
23.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-4
23.5%
Zach Smith sacked by Desmond Hawkins and Joseph Dorceus for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+6
23.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+11
23.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 55 yds , Traveon Samuel returns for 11 yds to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1178% → 78%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.1%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
21.9%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
22.1%
Kenneth Gainwell run for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
22.3%
Adam Williams punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:2124% → 29%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
23.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
23.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 15 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
28.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4329% → 28%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
29.2%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
29.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by T.J. CarterSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-5
28.3%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Shamari Brooks) to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+5
27.6%
SMITH, Z. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, J., PENALTY MEM offside defense 5 yards to the MEM23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
28.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
27.6%
Jacob Rainey 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:3873% → 81%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
27.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 15 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
26.1%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
25.8%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
25.7%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+20
25.8%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
25.5%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+6
25.5%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
25.5%
Kenneth Gainwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
25.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian Jones, broken up by Manny BunchSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
25.8%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to GAINWELL, K (BURNETT, Y.), PENALTY TLS pass interference 5 yards to the TLS2, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.4%
Calvin Austin III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4521% → 31%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.0%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
21.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 28 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
22.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
22.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
22.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+2
22.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 2 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+14
22.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 14 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
22.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Memph 6Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
22.8%
SMITH, Z. pass incomplete to STOKES, K., PENALTY MEM pass interference 4 yards to the MEM2, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
22.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:1075% → 82%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
25.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Antonio GibsonSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
25.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for no gain to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
25.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kenneth GainwellSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+29
26.7%
Adam Williams pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 29 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
25.0%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.8%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 5 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 1:2919% → 24%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
20.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
20.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
21.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to T.K. WilkersonSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
21.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+36
20.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 36 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
22.5%
Zach Smith sacked by Tim Hart and Bryce Huff for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 13
OPP 20
-7
21.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Bryce Huff for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+17
19.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 17 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 3
OPP 10
-5
20.8%
TULSA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 15Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
23.8%
Jacob Rainey 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:5279% → 82%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Antonio GibsonSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.8%
Antonio Gibson run for 11 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
20.6%
Brady White pass complete to Antonio Gibson for 39 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
19.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Tyon DavisSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
19.2%
WHITE, Brady pass complete to JONES, K for 24 yards to the TLS1 (BUNCH, M.;JACKSON, D.), PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the TLS15, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+33
17.8%
Riley Patterson 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:4122% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
22.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to James Palmer, broken up by Austin HallSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
21.0%
SMITH, Z. pass incomplete to STOKES, K., PENALTY MEM pass interference 7 yards to the TLS35, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
22.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
23.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 11 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
23.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 15 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
24.7%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
24.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
23.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
21.6%
Jacob Rainey 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Quindell Johnson Jacobi Francis return for no gain to the Memph 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
20.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 9
50
0
20.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte Coxie, broken up by Diamon CannonSimilar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 9
50
+8
20.6%
Traveon Samuel run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-1
21.2%
Kenneth Gainwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:4722% → 37%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
22.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+14
23.0%
Zach Smith run for 14 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
23.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
24.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
23.3%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd to the Memph 31 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Zach SmithSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+31
36.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 31 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3467% → 82%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
33.5%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 18 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
18.2%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 62 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:0220% → 39%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
19.7%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+20
19.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 20 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
20.7%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+32
19.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 32 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
23.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
23.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+9
21.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 9 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
23.3%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
23.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+14
21.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 14 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
23.3%
Keylon Stokes run for 3 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:2271% → 69%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
29.3%
Brady White pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 7 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
28.0%
Brady White pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 5 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
27.4%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 2 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-5
27.4%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to COXIE, Damonte, PENALTY MEM ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MEM39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
29.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Antonio GibsonSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+4
30.0%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
31.4%
Adam Williams punt for 42 yds, downed at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 5:1933% → 72%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
32.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-1
32.8%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+10
31.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
33.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
33.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
34.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
36.0%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+16
36.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 16 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
37.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
37.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 9 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+6
37.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
39.7%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
39.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 13 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
71.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FUMBLE
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
61.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 4 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
60.7%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 4 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
61.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for no gain to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+2
63.6%
Brady White run for 2 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
60.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+6
61.3%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 3 yds to the Memph 24 Kenneth Gainwell fumbled, forced by Trevis Gipson, recovered by Tulsa Zaven Collins , return for 6 yds to the Memph 24 Zaven Collins fumbled, forced by Trevis Gipson, recovered by Tulsa Allie Green IV , return for no gain to the Memph 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4073% → 86%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
73.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+6
73.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
73.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
73.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
71.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
85.8%
Jacob Rainey 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:4127% → 70%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.8%
Antonio Gibson run for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+59
74.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 59 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.4%
Kenneth Gainwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26MISSED FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 4:2646% → 37%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by Quindell JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
44.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 12 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
50.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
51.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+10
49.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
52.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
54.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+9
59.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 9 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
59.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
58.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+1
53.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Memph 12Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
36.9%
Jacob Rainey 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:26
Kenneth Gainwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
-43.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-36.9
TD · Q4 9:33
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)
+31.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com