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TLSA

Tulsa 7 at Memphis 45

MEM
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:56 · Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Pregame prior+36.1Home team on offense+2.3Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:14: Sutton Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:46: Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 34 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +4.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:04: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 14 yds for a TD Tulsa Penalty, Defensive Offside (Seth Morgan) declined (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +4.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:58: Timeout Memphis, clock 01:58 — TLSA win probability +1.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:07: Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +4.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:55TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:52TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:19TLSA 4th & 9 at MEM 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:00TLSA 4th & 3 at MEM 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:27TLSA 4th & 10 at MEM 40, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:23MEM 4th & 1 at TLSA 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:53MEM 4th & 7 at TLSA 32, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:20MEM 4th & 21 at TLSA 41, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:07TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 37, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:07TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 37, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:53TLSA 4th & 13 at MEM 48, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:33MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 36, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:43TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 46, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:00MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:14MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:46TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:04MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:07MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:53MEM Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:50MEM Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:549% → 9%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 4 yds to the TLSA 21Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
90.9%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
90.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 10 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
90.7%
Angus Davies punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 36 , Sutton Smith returns for no gain to the MEM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:4691% → 90%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
90.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 1 yd to the MEM 37Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-3
90.5%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Ty Cooper for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 34Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+21
90.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 21 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
90.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 9 yds to the TLSA 36Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+1
90.2%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
90.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 4 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
90.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
89.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 9 yds to the TLSA 16Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+5
89.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the TLSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
89.5%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 7Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
90.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Matt Adcock for 7 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4710% → 10%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
89.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 2 yds to the TLSA 21Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-4
89.9%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 17Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
90.0%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
90.0%
Angus Davies punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the MEM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 4:2890% → 89%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
90.0%
Sutton Smith run for 6 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
90.0%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
89.8%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for no gain to the MEM 49Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
89.6%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
89.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 14 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
89.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-2
89.8%
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 32Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-38
89.3%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Elijah Green return for 38 yds to the MEM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5112% → 12%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
88.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for no gain to the MEM 34Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
88.0%
Braylin Presley run for 6 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+11
88.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 11 yds to the MEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
87.6%
Kirk Francis run for 3 yds to the MEM 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-1
87.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 15Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-1
87.7%
Braylin Presley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 16Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
88.0%
Seth Morgan 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:5589% → 92%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 4 yds to the MEM 24Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
88.4%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 6 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
88.4%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 35Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
88.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
50
+47
88.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 47 yds to the TLSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.8%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:1810% → 14%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
90.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 25Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
90.6%
Braylin Presley run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
90.5%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 30Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+23
90.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 23 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
90.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 9 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-2
89.9%
Braylin Presley run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+6
90.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 6 yds to the MEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
85.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 34 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8INT
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:2288% → 88%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+26
87.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 26 yds to the MEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
87.8%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 35Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
88.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
50
+8
88.3%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 8 yds to the TLSA 42 Greg Desrosiers Jr. fumbled, recovered by MEM Greg Desrosiers Jr.Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
88.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.3%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the TLSA 38Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
88.1%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
87.8%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Elijah Green return for no gain to the TLSA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4213% → 13%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
86.7%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
86.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 3Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
87.1%
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Chris Bracy return for no gain to the TLSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:1888% → 92%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
88.0%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 6 yds to the TLSA 14Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
92.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 14 yds for a TD Tulsa Penalty, Defensive Offside (Seth Morgan) declined (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:129% → 10%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
90.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 15 yds to the TLSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
90.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 7 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 24
-15
90.0%
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Kamari Wilson return for 15 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:2892% → 97%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
91.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+14
92.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 14 yds to the TLSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
92.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the TLSA 4Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
92.9%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the TLSA 4Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
97.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:373% → 3%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 15 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
97.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 20 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.9%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
97.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Jacob EmmersSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
97.3%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
97.3%
Angus Davies punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the MEM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
97.3%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 5:0097% → 97%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
96.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Cortez Braham Jr.Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-5
96.6%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Ross,Christian) 5 yards from MEM16 to MEM11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+29
96.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 29 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
97.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.0%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-10
97.1%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Lewis,Brendon pass complete short middle to Ross,Christian caught at TUL44, for 4 yards to the TUL42 (Coney,Ray) PENALTY MEM Holding (Adams,Chris) 10 yards from TUL46 to MEM44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+8
97.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+7
97.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Bryce Anderson for 7 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+6
97.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
97.3%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
97.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
97.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
97.2%
Gianni Spetic 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:103% → 3%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
97.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 6 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
97.5%
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Samson Israel return for no gain to the MEM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:1098% → 98%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
97.7%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+21
97.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 21 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.7%
CJ Smith run for no gain to the TLSA 30Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-13
97.8%
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 23
OPP 43
+2
98.0%
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 21
OPP 41
0
97.8%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:062% → 2%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
98.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 16 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
98.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
98.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
98.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Grayson TempestSimilar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
98.1%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Ajay AllenSimilar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 8
OWN 37
-1
98.2%
Angus Davies run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 36Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 8
OWN 37
-1
98.2%
Angus Davies run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 3:0399% → 100%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
98.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 12 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
98.5%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+12
98.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
98.7%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.7%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:550% → 0%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 8 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.8%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep right to Tease,Micah thrown to MEM25 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Denis,Jaidyn) 15 yards from TUL40 to MEM45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Dominic Richardson for no gain to the MEM 45Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 47Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 4 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 8
OPP 43
-5
99.9%
PENALTY TUL False Start (Duffel,Brody) 5 yards from MEM43 to MEM48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Angus Davies punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:17100% → 100%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
99.8%
Sutton Smith run for 7 yds to the MEM 17Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
99.8%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the MEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ger-Cari Caldwell for 3 yds to the MEM 24Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 36Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Brady KluseSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Brady KluseSimilar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jewlyen Roberts for 5 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
99.9%
Zion Booker run for 10 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the TLSA 38 Ajay Allen fumbled, recovered by MEM Mond ColeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
99.9%
Arrington Maiden run for 10 yds to the TLSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the TLSA 28Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+18
99.9%
Arrington Maiden run for 18 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:500% → 0%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 5 yds to the TLSA 35Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
100.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Kirk Francis run for no gain to the TLSA 45 Kirk Francis fumbled, recovered by TLSA Kirk FrancisSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
100.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 46Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Ajay AllenSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Angus Davies punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
99.9%
B. Lewis takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 13
OWN 14
-2
100.0%
B. Lewis takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 12
-2
100.0%
B. Lewis takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:07
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q2 7:46
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 34 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
-4.6
TD · Q2 2:04
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 14 yds for a TD Tulsa Penalty, Defensive Offside (Seth Morgan) declined (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com