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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreARK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:30 · Lachlan Carrigan punt for 50 yds , Kam Shanks returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:41: Rohan Jones run for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK) — ARK win probability +6.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:35: Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK) — ARK win probability +10.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:31: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 38 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +7.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:40: Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MEM win probability +16.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 4:51: Sutton Smith run for 64 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MEM win probability +37.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:57MEM 4th & 12 at ARK 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snapGo for it33.1%−0.322% to convertField goalTheir call33.4%75% to makePunt32.4%−1.0average punt
- Q1 7:33ARK 4th & 5 at MEM 48, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snapGo for it65.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q1 6:30MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 11, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.3%−0.527% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q2 11:08MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it35.6%−1.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%average punt
- Q2 4:29MEM 4th & 7 at ARK 28, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snapGo for it27.3%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call27.4%60% to makePunt24.4%−3.0average punt
- Q2 2:37ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 30, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snapGo for it71.4%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.7%average punt
- Q2 0:04ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snapGo for it70.2%−1.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.8%average punt
- Q3 11:37MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it23.3%−1.026% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%average punt
- Q3 10:42ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 9, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snapGo for it72.5%−2.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.6%average punt
- Q3 7:25MEM 4th & 13 at ARK 29, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.3% before the snapGo for it20.8%−1.520% to convertField goalTheir call22.3%58% to makePunt17.5%−4.8average punt
- Q3 4:16ARK 4th & 17 at MEM 28, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snapGo for it71.9%−2.514% to convertField goalTheir call74.4%60% to makePunt68.0%−6.3average punt
- Q4 6:26ARK 4th & 17 at MEM 40, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snapGo for it71.6%−3.015% to convertField goal74.3%−0.234% to makePuntTheir call74.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:50ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.6%97% to makeGo for two66.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:20MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.0%97% to makeGo for two40.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:37ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.9%97% to makeGo for two62.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:41ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.3%97% to makeGo for two71.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:35ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.0%97% to makeGo for two81.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31MEM Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.4%97% to makeGo for two25.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:40MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick33.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call32.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:51MEM Touchdown, up 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick63.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call63.0%−0.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARKDrive 1TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0573% → 73%
MEMDrive 2FG14 plays · 55 yds · 4:2828% → 29%
ARKDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1271% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3730% → 29%
Q1 6:30
4TH & 10
OWN 11
-2
29.4%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 50 yds , Kam Shanks returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
29.8%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Jaidyn Denis return for no gain to the MEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD12 plays · 71 yds · 5:5630% → 37%
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
30.0%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+5
30.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
50
+20
31.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Kluse for 20 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+10
32.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Kluse for 10 yds to the ARK 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3364% → 70%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+10
34.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 10 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2633% → 32%
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-9
33.8%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Quincy Rhodes Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the MEM 25 Memphis Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the MEM 25Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.0%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 47 yds , Kam Shanks returns for 6 yds to the ARK 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD7 plays · 66 yds · 3:0467% → 76%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
32.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Braylen Russell for 8 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+6
31.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 6 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
31.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 21 yds to the MEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10MISSED FG8 plays · 47 yds · 3:0125% → 25%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
25.2%
Sutton Smith run for 33 yds to the ARK 31 Sutton Smith fumbled, recovered by MEM Sutton Smith for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4575% → 75%
Q2 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+7
25.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds to the ARK 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
23.7%
CJ Smith pass intercepted Miguel Mitchell return for no gain to the ARK 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD4 plays · 52 yds · 0:4777% → 88%
MEMDrive 14TD9 plays · 75 yds · 0:5716% → 25%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
15.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 22Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
15.3%
Lewis, Brendon pass incomplete, PENALTY ARK pass interference 15 yards to the MEMPHIS37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
15.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 8 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
25.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 38 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2178% → 77%
Q2 0:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Devin Bale punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sutton Smith at the MEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1724% → 22%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 4 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
23.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+6
23.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 6 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-4
23.4%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Bradley Shaw for a loss of 4 yards to the MEM 40 Brendon Lewis fumbled, recovered by MEM Brendon Lewis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
21.7%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kam Shanks at the ARK 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4577% → 76%
Q3 10:42
4TH & 13
OWN 9
+11
23.6%
Devin Bale punt for 61 yds , Sutton Smith returns for 11 yds to the MEM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19FG6 plays · 30 yds · 3:0723% → 25%
ARKDrive 20FG9 plays · 47 yds · 3:0177% → 79%
MEMDrive 21TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3620% → 39%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+40
20.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 40 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+12
22.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the ARK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
39.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT9 plays · 53 yds · 2:2571% → 75%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+42
28.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jalen Brown for 42 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+15
25.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 15 yds to the MEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-5
25.2%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Kamari Wilson return for 5 yds to the MEM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23INT4 plays · 22 yds · 1:5232% → 36%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-19
35.7%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Julian Neal return for 19 yds to the ARK 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 5:2972% → 76%
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
25.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Mike Washington Jr. for 4 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
22.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 4 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-2
22.4%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the MEM 35 Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MEM 45Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+12
22.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 12 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-9
19.7%
Taylen Green sacked by Crews Law for a loss of 9 yards to the MEM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD4 plays · 94 yds · 1:2728% → 64%
ARKDrive 26FUMBLE12 plays · 68 yds · 3:2642% → 46%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
55.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 7 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
53.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Mike Washington Jr. for 10 yds to the MEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-5
53.9%
Arkansas Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MEM 25Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+2
53.9%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 7 Mike Washington Jr. fumbled, recovered by MEM Chris BracySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27END OF GAME11 plays · 10 yds · 1:1173% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:51
Sutton Smith run for 64 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+37.2
TD · Q3 1:40
Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+16.6
TD · Q2 1:35
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
-10.8