Kent State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2793rd
  Defense+0.2517th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense50.5%98th
  Defense48.0%8th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2025th
  Defense+1.2941st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3399th
  Defense+0.2510th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2146th
  Defense+0.2925th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense56.6%98th
  Defense51.8%15th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.5%81st
  Defense39.0%3rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.6498th
  Defense3.4012th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.8%77th
  Defense15.5%33rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.5%55th
  Defense14.6%22nd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kent State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   TA&M
2. W
   VMI
3. L
   IOWA
4. L
   MD
5. W
   BGSU
6. W
   BUF
7. L
   WMU
8. W
   OHIO
9. W
   NIU
10. L
    CMU
11. W
    AKR
12. W
    M-OH
13. L
    NIU
14. L
    WYO

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kent State.

Players, 2021

1. Dustin CrumQB427 plays · +0.311 pts/play · 12th of 219 QBs
   2.49WAR1.63 to 3.34
2. Marquez CooperRB194 plays · +0.200 pts/play · 32nd of 387 RBs
   0.73WAR0.53 to 0.91
3. Xavier WilliamsRB83 plays · +0.210 pts/play · 137th of 387 RBs
   0.33WAR0.24 to 0.43
4. Dante CephasWR86 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 47th of 474 WRs
   0.22WAR0.12 to 0.32
5. Keshunn AbramWR53 plays · +0.198 pts/play · 68th of 474 WRs
   0.20WAR0.14 to 0.25
6. Nykeim JohnsonWR67 plays · +0.139 pts/play · 94th of 474 WRs
   0.17WAR0.10 to 0.25
7. Ja'Shaun PokeWR35 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 242nd of 474 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.13
8. Andrew GlassPK20 plays · +0.227 pts/play · 46th of 128 kickers
   0.09WAR0.02 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kent State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  358358113th of 130Roster talent: 358, 113th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  132132106th of 130Recruiting: 132, 106th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  90%90%27th of 128Returning production: 90%, 27th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −6.4−6.493rd of 130SP+ rating: −6.4, 93rd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kent State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.16 of the 0.23 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs BUFQ4 0:31 4th & 6 at KENT 31, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
2. at CMUQ3 13:03 4th & 1 at KENT 30, down 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
3. at OHIOQ4 13:00 4th & 2 at OHIO 37, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
4. at WMUQ2 0:01 4th & 3 at WMU 3, down 9Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
5. at NIUQ2 4:59 4th & 13 at NIU 32, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.7 pts
6. vs M-OHQ2 0:00 4th & 4 at M-OH 4, down 2Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
7. at OHIOQ4 3:04 4th & 2 at OHIO 10, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
8. at WYOQ4 13:01 4th & 2 at WYO 12, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

63rd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kent State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   TA&M
2. W

   VMI
3. L

   IOWA
4. L

   MD
5. W

   BGSU
6. W

   BUF
7. L

   WMU
8. W

   OHIO
9. W

   NIU
10. L

    CMU
11. W

    AKR
12. W

    M-OH
13. L

    NIU
14. L

    WYO

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Kent State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.47
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.12
• Timeouts−0.17
• Other+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.26

Game by game

• TA&ML 10-41 at TA&M3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −6
• VMIW 60-10 vs VMI90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +12
• IOWAL 7-30 at IOWA8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −12
• MDL 16-37 at MD17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −21
• BGSUW 27-20 vs BGSU88% → 98%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +17, Timeouts +1
• BUFW 48-38 vs BUF71% → 6%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −65: Scoreboard −55, Clock −3
• WMUL 31-64 at WMU31% → 0%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −32
• OHIOW 34-27 at OHIO63% → 89%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +7
• NIUW 52-47 vs NIU63% → 95%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +3
• CMUL 30-54 at CMU43% → 0%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts −1
• AKRW 38-0 at AKR83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +23
• M-OHW 48-47 vs M-OH44% → 41%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −3: Timeouts −25, Clock +15
• NIUL 23-41 at NIU63% → 1%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −51, Possession & field position +2
• WYOL 38-52 at WYO41% → 1%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Kent State's side.

Closest call

KENT 27-24 CMU (2016) - Kent State dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.