2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadVMI aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreVMI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:58 · Xavier Williams run for 7 yds to the VMI 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:38: Dustin Crum run for 35 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +0.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:35: Nykeim Johnson 14 Yd Run (Mandela Lawrence-Burke Run for Two-Point Conversion) — KENT win probability +2.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:20: Andrew Glass 20 yd FG GOOD — VMI win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:31: Bryan Bradford run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:45: Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 3 of 6VMI made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:52VMI 4th & 9 at VMI 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q1 6:58VMI 4th & 15 at VMI 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q1 6:58KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt90.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 6:58KENT 4th & 2 at VMI 42, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.6%57% to convertField goal90.1%−0.430% to makePunt90.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:36VMI 4th & 3 at VMI 44, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:20KENT 4th & 3 at VMI 3, up 22Close callKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.7%44% to convertField goalTheir call93.6%−0.193% to makePunt93.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 8:32VMI 4th & 5 at VMI 30, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 5:34KENT 4th & 1 at VMI 44, up 32Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%70% to convertField goal97.4%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call97.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 11:55VMI 4th & 10 at KENT 26, down 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.8%64% to makePunt0.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 11:51KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 48, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:43VMI 4th & 8 at KENT 41, down 50Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%34% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:42KENT 4th & 4 at VMI 49, up 50Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:35VMI 4th & 9 at KENT 37, down 50Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%32% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.140% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8VMI made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:31KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:38KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.0%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:35KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick93.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:31KENT Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:45KENT Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:34KENT Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:25KENT Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:45VMI Touchdown, down 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:36KENT Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2990% → 90%
VMIDrive 2PUNT11 plays · 15 yds · 1:3110% → 10%
Q1 13:23
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+10
89.9%
Seth Morgan pass complete to Korey Bridy for 10 yds to the VMI 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 21
OWN 27
+15
89.8%
Morgan,Seth pass incomplete to Thomas,Leroy PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Hines,Elvis) 15 yards from VMI27 to VMI42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
89.8%
Seth Morgan pass complete to Aidan Twombly for 1 yd to the VMI 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1490% → 90%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
89.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 9 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3510% → 10%
Q1 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-8
89.9%
Seth Morgan sacked by Jabbar Price for a loss of 8 yards to the VMI 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5TD12 plays · 69 yds · 3:2391% → 93%
Q1 6:58
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+14
90.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 14 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+10
90.4%
Xavier Williams run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
92.6%
Nykeim Johnson 14 Yd Run (Mandela Lawrence-Burke Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 6INT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:547% → 7%
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
92.8%
Seth Morgan pass complete to Jakob Herres for 7 yds to the VMI 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7FG9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1693% → 93%
VMIDrive 8INT11 plays · 46 yds · 3:067% → 9%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
93.2%
Seth Morgan pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 3 yds to the VMI 40Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+8
93.2%
Seth Morgan pass complete to Michael Jackson for 8 yds to the VMI 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 8
50
+15
93.2%
KENT ST Penalty, Targeting (Khalib Johns) to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.6%
PENALTY KSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting VMI UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9TD8 plays · 96 yds · 1:4393% → 96%
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+24
93.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Luke Floriea for 24 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
93.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 5 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+51
93.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 66 yds to the KENTST 1 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Marquez Cooper) to the VMI 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:594% → 3%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.7%
Seth Morgan pass complete to Jakob Herres for 5 yds to the VMI 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 2:5894% → 98%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
94.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 12INT8 plays · 30 yds · 2:532% → 2%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.0%
Seth Morgan pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 9 yds to the VMI 29Similar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.9%
Seth Morgan pass complete to Jakob Herres for 5 yds to the VMI 42Similar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
97.7%
Bridy,Korey rush for 5 yards gain to the KSU41 (Lawrence-Burke,Mandela) PENALTY VMI Holding (Strand,Shane) 10 yards from KSU46 to VMI44. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13TD9 plays · 77 yds · 1:5699% → 99%
Q2 2:41
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+10
98.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Devontez Walker for 10 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+30
98.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Devontez Walker for 30 yds to the VMI 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
99.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · 2 yds · 0:451% → 1%
VMIDrive 15FG11 plays · 46 yds · 3:041% → 1%
Q3 14:59
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
99.2%
Collin Ironside pass complete to Korey Bridy for 5 yds to the VMI 37Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+5
99.1%
Ironside,Collin pass incomplete to Jackson,Michael PENALTY KSU Offside (Cook,Antoine) 5 yards from VMI37 to VMI42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
99.2%
Collin Ironside pass complete to Rashad Raymond for 5 yds to the VMI 48Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+26
99.1%
Collin Ironside pass complete to Julio DaSilva for 26 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD11 plays · 75 yds · 6:1799% → 100%
Q3 11:51
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+18
99.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 18 yds to the VMI 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 17INT8 plays · 40 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q3 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+26
99.8%
Collin Ironside pass complete to Julio DaSilva for 11 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Capone Blue) to the KntSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18TD5 plays · 80 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
VMIDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 34 yds · 1:170% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 21TD15 plays · 99 yds · 5:570% → 0%
Q4 8:42
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+5
100.0%
Ironside,Collin pass incomplete to Cooper,Andre broken up by Smith,Heskin PENALTY KSU Offside (Mitchell,Brian) 5 yards from VMI05 to VMI10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
100.0%
Collin Ironside pass complete to Andre Cooper II for 6 yds to the VMI 18Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+6
100.0%
Collin Ironside pass complete to Andre Cooper II for 6 yds to the VMI 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-2
100.0%
Collin Ironside sacked by Brandon Coleman for a loss of 2 yards to the VMI 47Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+15
100.0%
Ironside,Collin pass intercepted by Coleman,Brandon at KSU47 Coleman,Brandon return 4 yards to the VMI49 (VMI) PENALTY KSU Illegal Use Of Hands (Bolden,Nico) 15 yards from VMI47 to KSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+32
100.0%
Collin Ironside pass complete to VJ Johnson for 32 yds to the KntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22TD2 plays · 49 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER7 plays · 10 yds · 2:360% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:31
Bryan Bradford run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q1 3:35
Nykeim Johnson 14 Yd Run (Mandela Lawrence-Burke Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+2
FG · Q2 14:20
Andrew Glass 20 yd FG GOOD
-0.9