2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:03 · Andrew Glass 24 Yard Field Goal Missed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 10:02: Seth Small 36 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +1.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:27: Dustin Crum pass intercepted for a TD Leon O'Neal Jr. return for 85 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:49: Devon Achane run for 63 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:31: Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:27: Collin Schlee run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 5:23KENT 4th & 11 at TA&M 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call5.1%85% to makePunt4.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:11TA&M 4th & 7 at KENT 31, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call94.1%54% to makePunt94.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:49KENT 4th & 3 at TA&M 47, down 7Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:07TA&M 4th & 1 at KENT 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.5%71% to convertField goal93.1%−0.458% to makePunt92.4%−1.1average punt
- Q2 10:24KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q2 3:20KENT 4th & 11 at TA&M 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q3 14:04KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.927% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q3 10:02TA&M 4th & 6 at KENT 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snapGo for it89.4%−0.338% to convertField goalTheir call89.7%79% to makePunt86.6%−3.0average punt
- Q3 6:14KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q3 1:52KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 40, down 24Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:43KENT 4th & 15 at KENT 28, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 4:25KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 34, down 31Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:18KENT 4th & 8 at TA&M 8, down 31Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%26% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%−0.190% to makePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:27TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:27TA&M Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:49TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:31TA&M Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:27KENT Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:26TA&M Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0397% → 96%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
96.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 12 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
96.4%
Smith, Ainias rush for 4 yards to the KENTST24, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Green, Kenyon) 10 yards to the KENTST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 20
OPP 38
-1
96.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 39Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 21
OPP 39
+14
96.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 14 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+14
96.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 14 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+6
96.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 6 yds to the KntSt 4Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
96.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2FG12 plays · 68 yds · 3:484% → 5%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
96.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 11 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
95.9%
Crum, Dustin rush for loss of 4 yards to the KENTST31, PENALTY TEXASAM face mask 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTST.Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 10
50
+12
95.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 12 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-5
95.3%
Dustin Crum sacked by Shemar Turner for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3FG6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0495% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 1:065% → 5%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
95.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 19 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
95.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
94.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 2 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+1
94.9%
Josh Smith punt for 39 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 1 yd to the TexAM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5DOWNS14 plays · 61 yds · 5:2295% → 94%
Q1 0:12
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+13
94.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 13 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
94.6%
Haynes King sacked by A.J. Musolino for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 42Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+13
94.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 13 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:316% → 6%
Q2 11:09
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
93.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 8 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7INT10 plays · 57 yds · 4:4994% → 93%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+27
93.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 27 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-16
93.4%
Haynes King pass intercepted Elvis Hines return for 16 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 1:538% → 8%
Q2 4:25
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+14
91.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 14 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
91.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Bryan Bradford for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 49Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+4
91.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 4 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9INT7 plays · 57 yds · 2:0192% → 93%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
91.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 11 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
91.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 23 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
92.6%
Haynes King pass intercepted Elvis Hines return for 2 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10INT5 plays · 42 yds · 0:409% → 11%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
89.4%
Dustin Crum pass intercepted, touchback. Leon O'Neal Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:479% → 8%
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
91.3%
Crum, Dustin pass complete to Abram, Keshunn for 9 yards to the KENTST30, PENALTY KENTST ineligible downfield on pass (Floriea, Luke) 5 yards to the KENTST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+5
91.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
91.7%
Josh Smith punt for 44 yds , Ainias Smith returns for no gain to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13FG9 plays · 47 yds · 3:4391% → 92%
Q3 13:21
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+18
91.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 18 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
91.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 14 yds to the KntSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
91.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds to the KntSt 16Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-10
91.3%
King, Haynes pass complete to Smith, Ainias for 11 yards to the KENTST5, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Green, Kenyon) 10 yards to the KENTST26, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14INT TD11 plays · 68 yds · 2:278% → 4%
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+12
91.5%
Dustin Crum sacked by Fadil Diggs for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
90.0%
Cooper, Marquez rush for 7 yards to the TEXASAM15, PENALTY KENTST personal foul 15 yards to the TEXASAM37, NO PLAY, PENALTY TEXASAM personal foul 15 yards to the TEXASAM22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTST.Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-85
95.7%
Dustin Crum pass intercepted for a TD Leon O'Neal Jr. return for 85 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:004% → 4%
TA&MDrive 16TD5 plays · 82 yds · 2:0997% → 99%
Q3 5:02
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+5
96.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 5 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:491% → 1%
TA&MDrive 18INT3 plays · 56 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
KENTDrive 19PUNT3 plays · -4 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-4
99.0%
Dustin Crum sacked by DeMarvin Leal for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+13
99.1%
Josh Smith punt for 28 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 13 yds to the TexAM 41 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Owen Jebson) to the TexAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20TD7 plays · 53 yds · 3:0599% → 100%
Q4 13:40
2ND & 7
50
+12
99.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 12 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
99.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 14 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
99.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 13 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-3
99.2%
Haynes King sacked by CJ West for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 14Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21TD12 plays · 75 yds · 2:530% → 1%
Q4 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
99.9%
Schlee, Collin rush for 9 yards to the TEXASAM0, PENALTY KENTST illegal formation 5 yards to the TEXASAM14, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD5 plays · 44 yds · 1:2499% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23FUMBLE5 plays · 9 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 4:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-3
99.9%
Josh Smith punt for 57 yds , Ainias Smith returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 6 Ainias Smith fumbled, recovered by KntStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24MISSED FG4 plays · -2 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 3:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
99.9%
Collin Schlee sacked by Shemar Turner and Jardin Gilbert for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25INT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
99.9%
Crownover, Earnest rush for loss of 1 yard to the TEXASAM34, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Matthews, Luke) 10 yards to the TEXASAM25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-28
100.0%
Zach Calzada pass intercepted Nico Bolden return for 28 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26END OF GAME10 plays · 23 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q4 0:44
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+6
100.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Javaughn Williams for 6 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+15
100.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Javaughn Williams for 15 yds to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
100.0%
Collin Schlee sacked by Jahzion Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:27
Dustin Crum pass intercepted for a TD Leon O'Neal Jr. return for 85 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q3 3:49
Devon Achane run for 63 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
+1.9
FG · Q3 10:02
Seth Small 36 yd FG GOOD
+1.7