Kent State
- SP+
- −7.5 (#100)
- FPI
- −3.8 (#87)
- Resume
- #45
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Advanced stats
CollegeFootballData's play-by-play measures of how efficient and explosive a team was, placed against every other FBS team. How it works →
Profile vs. FBS, 2020
Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.
- EPA per playExpected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
- Success rateShare of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
- ExplosivenessAverage EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
- Rushing EPAEPA per designed run.
- Passing EPAEPA per pass play.
- Standard downsSuccess rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
- Passing downsSuccess rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
- Line yardsRushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
- Stuff rateShare of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
- HavocShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2020
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kent State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Kent State.
Players
YardLine's player model credits every play's value to the players involved, so each one's season can be measured in wins above a typical backup. How it works →
Players, 2020
Quarterback is the most valuable starting slot by a wide margin: the gap between a top-decile and a median FBS quarterback is about twice the gap at any other position.
- Dustin CrumQB126 plays · +0.281 pts/play · 50th of 212 QBs0.66WAR0.45 to 0.89
- Marquez CooperRB47 plays · +0.194 pts/play · 189th of 338 RBs0.17WAR0.14 to 0.20
- Isaiah McKoyWR31 plays · +0.177 pts/play · 121st of 409 WRs0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
- Xavier WilliamsRB20 plays · +0.209 pts/play · 263rd of 338 RBs0.08WAR0.06 to 0.10
- Matthew TrickettPK3 plays · +0.208 pts/play · 85th of 97 kickers0.01WAR0.01 to 0.02
By position group, against FBS
Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.
Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kent State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works
Talent and roster
How much talent the roster had, by recruiting ratings, and how much of it showed up on the field, against every other FBS team. How it works →
What it had and what it did, 2020
- Roster talent: 270, 113th of 127 in FBSRoster talent247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
- Recruiting: 126, 114th of 127 in FBSRecruitingAverage 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
- Returning production: 80%, 25th of 127 in FBSReturning productionShare of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
- SP+ rating: −7.5, 100th of 127 in FBSSP+ ratingThe result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.
Talent conversion
Kent State's SP+ of −7.5 is 2.7 points above the −10.2 its roster talent predicts, 46th of 127 in FBS.
The same comparison on each side of the ball, positive is better for both.
Conversion by season
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kent State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at BUFQ3 10:01 4th & 1 at KENT 34, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
- vs EMUQ3 10:29 4th & 2 at KENT 37, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
- at BUFQ1 8:16 4th & 2 at BUF 10, down 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
- at BGSUQ1 5:40 4th & 4 at BGSU 22, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at BUFQ4 4:58 4th & 1 at BUF 20, down 29Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts
- at BGSUQ2 0:03 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, up 28Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
Every call this season (23)
- Q1 12:374th & 2 at BGSU 10, tied · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 11:134th & 1 at BGSU 41, up 4 · Went for itAgreed
- Q1 5:404th & 4 at BGSU 22, up 4 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 8:544th & 1 at BGSU 36, up 14 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 0:034th & 6 at BGSU 29, up 28 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q3 13:464th & 12 at KENT 1, up 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q3 10:424th & 12 at KENT 18, up 28 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:574th & 5 at BGSU 5, up 35 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q1 14:174th & 14 at KENT 21, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q1 8:164th & 2 at BUF 10, down 14 · Kicked a field goalClose call
- Q2 15:004th & 2 at BUF 40, down 11 · Went for itAgreed
- Q2 12:144th & 7 at BUF 27, down 11 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q2 1:004th & 1 at BUF 17, down 11 · Went for itAgreed
- Q3 10:014th & 1 at KENT 34, down 11 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 9:214th & 18 at BUF 18, down 25 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 4:584th & 1 at BUF 20, down 29 · Went for itClose call
- Q4 0:164th & 5 at KENT 38, down 29 · PuntedAgreed
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
- vs AKRQ3 0:20 Touchdown, up 27 before the tryWent for two; the numbers favored kicking (close call)<0.1 pts
- at BUFQ4 4:58 Touchdown, down 23 before the tryKicked; the numbers favored going for two (close call)<0.1 pts
- at BGSUQ4 1:35 Touchdown, up 44 before the tryKicked; the numbers favored going for two (close call)<0.1 pts
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2020
46th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations
Expected wins adds up Kent State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2020
Every game starts at Kent State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard+0.21
- Clock−0.01
- Timeouts+0.02
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.09
Game by game
- EMUW 27-23 vs EMU66% → 91%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +2
- BGSUW 62-24 at BGSU90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +15
- AKRW 69-35 vs AKR93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +9
- BUFL 41-70 at BUF30% → 0%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −31
Points of win probability, from Kent State's side.
Closest call
KENT 27-24 CMU (2016) - Kent State dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2020
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Kent State's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2020
The largest single-play change in Kent State's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Kent State's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Kent State's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Kent State's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Kent State's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.