Kent State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0516th
  Defense+0.1643rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense38.3%13th
  Defense44.3%31st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2052nd
  Defense+1.0889th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.059th
  Defense+0.1149th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1228th
  Defense+0.2436th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense43.4%18th
  Defense48.5%36th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.0%17th
  Defense34.6%36th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.244th
  Defense3.0232nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense27.5%2nd
  Defense15.9%13th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense3.7%1st
  Defense1.7%31st

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kent State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   OHIO
2. L
   USA
3. L
   OSU
4. L
   UVA
5. L
   NIU
6. L
   MASS
7. W
   ARMY
8. L
   M-OH
9. L
   TOL
10. L
    BGSU
11. W
    AKR

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kent State.

Players, 2014

1. Nick HolleyQB151 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 142nd of 199 QBs
   0.49WAR0.12 to 0.87
2. Anthony MelchioriPK70 plays · +0.229 pts/play · 3rd of 114 kickers
   0.30WAR0.21 to 0.39
3. Chris HumphreyWR80 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 75th of 469 WRs
   0.19WAR0.08 to 0.32
4. Ernest CalhounWR53 plays · +0.079 pts/play · 262nd of 469 WRs
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.14
5. Kris WhiteWR38 plays · +0.076 pts/play · 329th of 469 WRs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.09
6. Colin ReardonWR41 plays · −0.013 pts/play · 469th of 469 WRs
   −0.01WAR−0.06 to 0.04
7. Casey PierceTE77 plays · −0.030 pts/play · 207th of 212 TEs
   −0.04WAR−0.20 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kent State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kent State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs OHIOQ3 6:38 4th & 2 at OHIO 46, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
2. at NIUQ2 1:54 4th & 1 at NIU 1, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
3. vs OHIOQ2 14:13 4th & 1 at KENT 39, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
4. vs MASSQ3 14:55 4th & 2 at KENT 34, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. vs AKRQ2 9:56 4th & 4 at AKR 29, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
6. at NIUQ2 15:00 4th & 3 at NIU 35, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. at BGSUQ2 9:33 4th & 5 at BGSU 40, down 20Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. vs MASSQ2 8:56 4th & 3 at KENT 29, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

105th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kent State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   OHIO
2. L

   USA
3. L

   OSU
4. L

   UVA
5. L

   NIU
6. L

   MASS
7. W

   ARMY
8. L

   M-OH
9. L

   TOL
10. L

    BGSU
11. W

    AKR

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Kent State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.77
• Clock−0.11
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.90

Game by game

• OHIOL 14-17 vs OHIO58% → 5%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −51, Clock −3
• USAL 13-23 vs USA48% → 4%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3
• OSUL 0-66 at OSU3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −6
• UVAL 13-45 at UVA7% → 0%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −10
• NIUL 14-17 at NIU8% → 13%Before kickoff −42 · On the field +5: Scoreboard −12, Timeouts −1
• MASSL 17-40 vs MASS54% → 0%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −55, Clock −3
• ARMYW 39-17 vs ARMY34% → 100%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +55
• M-OHL 3-10 at M-OH37% → 4%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −1
• TOLL 20-30 vs TOL20% → 2%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −30, Clock −2
• BGSUL 20-30 at BGSU21% → 3%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts −1
• AKRW 27-24 vs AKR33% → 92%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Kent State's side.

Closest call

KENT 27-24 CMU (2016) - Kent State dropped to a 0.3% win probability before pulling it out.