2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:43 · Nick Holley run for no gain to the MiaOh 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 10:39: MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the MiaOh 3 — M-OH win probability +6.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:40: Kaleb Patterson 41 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +8.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 0:33: Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Chris Humphrey — KENT win probability +6.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:10: SCOTT, Dawan rush over right end for 6 yards to the MU26 (MERAY, Anthony;DELLINGER, Matt), PENALTY MU holding (TANNER, Jeff) 7 yards to the MU13, NO PLAY. — M-OH win probability +6.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:20: Andrew Hendrix run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 23 — M-OH win probability +6.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 9:47M-OH 4th & 5 at KENT 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.4%41% to convertField goal63.4%−<0.166% to makePunt62.7%−0.7average punt
- Q1 9:40KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 39, tiedClose callPunted · 36.9% before the snapGo for it36.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:04KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.8%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%average punt
- Q1 3:04M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it65.5%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.3%average punt
- Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 5 at M-OH 48, down 7Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snapGo for it33.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:42M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it65.9%−0.627% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.5%average punt
- Q2 14:04KENT 4th & 11 at M-OH 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it32.5%−0.127% to convertField goal32.5%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call32.5%average punt
- Q2 12:28M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 39, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 68.0% before the snapGo for it68.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.3%−1.1average punt
- Q2 1:36KENT 4th & 11 at M-OH 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snapGo for it28.0%−1.322% to convertField goalTheir call29.3%87% to makePunt23.4%−5.9average punt
- Q2 0:43M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 31, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snapGo for it63.7%−1.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.7%average punt
- Q3 10:39M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 39, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snapGo for it67.2%−1.032% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.2%average punt
- Q3 5:12KENT 4th & 3 at M-OH 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.9%52% to convertField goal32.6%−1.354% to makePunt31.2%−2.7average punt
- Q3 0:40M-OH 4th & 3 at KENT 23, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snapGo for it72.1%52% to convertField goalTheir call70.8%−1.370% to makePunt59.8%−12.3average punt
- Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snapGo for it18.9%−2.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q4 14:13M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snapGo for it81.9%−1.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.0%average punt
- Q4 8:10KENT 4th & 5 at M-OH 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snapGo for it18.1%−2.539% to convertField goalTheir call20.6%85% to makePunt7.3%−13.3average punt
- Q4 8:10M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snapGo for it80.1%−5.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.3%average punt
- Q4 3:43KENT 4th & 6 at M-OH 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.1%40% to convertField goal10.4%−1.738% to makePunt8.7%−3.4average punt
- Q4 3:43KENT 4th & 1 at M-OH 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.8%71% to convertField goal12.5%−3.374% to makePunt4.9%−10.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:12M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.8%97% to makeGo for two65.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1DOWNS14 plays · 38 yds · 5:1363% → 63%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+12
63.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 12 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
63.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 11 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+7
63.3%
HENDRIX, Andrew pass incomplete, PENALTY KENT pass interference (REFUGE, Elcee) 7 yards to the KENT30, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
63.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+10
63.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 10 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 5
OPP 25
-8
63.3%
Rokeem Williams run for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 33 Rokeem Williams fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
M-OHDrive 3TD11 plays · 88 yds · 3:4863% → 67%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
62.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 8 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+13
62.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 13 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
63.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 16 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
63.8%
HENDRIX, Andrew rush up middle for no gain to the KENT10 (CUNNINGHAM, Jon;TERHUNE, Nate), PENALTY KENT face mask (CUNNINGHAM, Jon) 5 yards to the KENT5, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-14
63.8%
Dawan Scott run for 1 yd to the KntSt 4 MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the KntSt 19Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
67.3%
Andrew Hendrix run for 19 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 4:04
4TH & 10
OWN 29
-5
66.6%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 51 yds , David Frazier returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 3:04
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+3
65.4%
Christian Koch punt for 51 yds , James Brooks returns for 3 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2734% → 34%
M-OHDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q2 14:42
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+14
65.4%
Christian Koch punt for 49 yds , James Brooks returns for 14 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
M-OHDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 12:28
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
67.0%
Christian Koch punt for 42 yds, fair catch by James Brooks at the KntSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10FG16 plays · 70 yds · 6:5032% → 35%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
68.2%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 16 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
65.9%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 10 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+16
69.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Josh Boyle for 16 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+14
66.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 14 yds to the MiaOh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
67.6%
Ernest Calhoun run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 11 Ernest Calhoun fumbled, recovered by KntSt Ernest Calhoun KENT ST Penalty, crackback (NA) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 0:5367% → 67%
Q2 0:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
66.5%
Christian Koch punt for 45 yds, fair catch by James Brooks at the KntSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
KENTDrive 13INT10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0034% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
63.3%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 16 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+9
62.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 9 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+10
63.7%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 10 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
62.5%
Colin Reardon pass intercepted Heath Harding return for no gain to the MiaOh 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT13 plays · 34 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
68.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 9 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
69.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 6 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
70.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 1 yd to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
67.5%
Christian Koch punt for 37 yds, fair catch by James Brooks at the KntSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 45 yds · 0:0032% → 34%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
68.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 14 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+25
67.5%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 10 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (NA) to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+7
65.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 7 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16FG5 plays · 46 yds · 1:5571% → 82%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+39
71.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 39 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:3324% → 21%
M-OHDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
KENTDrive 19MISSED FG12 plays · 61 yds · 5:0920% → 19%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
79.8%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 5 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
78.7%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 8 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
77.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 5 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
76.2%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 19 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
74.5%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Casey Pierce for 5 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
88.2%
SCOTT, Dawan rush over right end for 6 yards to the MU26 (MERAY, Anthony;DELLINGER, Matt), PENALTY MU holding (TANNER, Jeff) 7 yards to the MU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
88.0%
HENDRIX, Andrew rush over right end for 1 yard to the MU23 (WAUGH, Terence), PENALTY MU holding (SCOTT, Dawan) 10 yards to the MU12, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21DOWNS10 plays · 34 yds · 1:1515% → 12%
Q4 4:58
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+4
85.8%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+8
89.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 8 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
86.3%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Kris White, broken up by Marshall TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22END OF GAME5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3295% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 0:40
Kaleb Patterson 41 yd FG GOOD
+8.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:10
SCOTT, Dawan rush over right end for 6 yards to the MU26 (MERAY, Anthony;DELLINGER, Matt), PENALTY MU holding (TANNER, Jeff) 7 yards to the MU13, NO PLAY.
+6.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:20
Andrew Hendrix run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 23
+6.6