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BUF

Buffalo 31 at Kent State 28

KENT
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Dru DeShields pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 8 yds Dashawn Martin fumbled, recovered by BUF Keontez Bradley
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:28: Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Chance Morrow for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +11.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:15: Al-Jay Henderson run for 38 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +10.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:58: Dru DeShields pass complete to Terik Mulder for 50 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK) — KENT win probability +16.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 2:38: Dru DeShields run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK) — KENT win probability +51.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:03: Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +61.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 11BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 12:27BUF 4th & 2 at KENT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23BUF 4th & 5 at KENT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:35KENT 4th & 4 at BUF 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:09BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:27KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:45KENT 4th & 12 at BUF 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:49KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−2.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:16KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:34BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:29KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:31KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:14KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.7%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:48KENT 4th & 4 at BUF 32, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−8.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:38KENT 4th & 1 at BUF 3, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 9.2 ptsWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%−9.2
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%
    93% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−26.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:41KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.0%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:18BUF 4th & 1 at KENT 23, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.6%−2.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−17.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:54KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:33KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:12BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:28BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:15BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:58KENT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:38KENT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−1.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:03BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 26 yds · 4:2995% → 93%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
5.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
5.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Devare Mathis for 6 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
5.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
5.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Evan KingSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
5.7%
Messiah Burch run for 7 yds to the KENT 48Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
6.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 1 yd to the KENT 47Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+3
6.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 3 yds to the KENT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
6.2%
Lamar Sperling run for 1 yd to the KENT 43Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
6.3%
Lamar Sperling run for 1 yd to the KENT 42Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+3
6.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 3 yds to the KENT 39Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
6.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for no gain to the KENT 39 Ta'Quan Roberson fumbled, recovered by BUFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:227% → 8%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
6.9%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for 4 yds to the KENT 43Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+26
7.3%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 26 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
8.2%
Maurice Stephens run for 31 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4292% → 91%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
8.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
8.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 10 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
8.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 38Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
8.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
9.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass intercepted Derrick Jackson return for no gain to the KENT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 5:179% → 13%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
9.2%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 33Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+5
9.5%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 5 yds to the KENT 38Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+10
10.0%
Dru DeShields run for 10 yds to the KENT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
10.6%
Gavin Garcia run for 4 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
11.1%
Dru DeShields run for 4 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
11.5%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for 4 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
12.2%
Gavin Garcia run for no gain to the BUF 40Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
12.5%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Jahzae KimbroughSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+6
12.4%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 6 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
12.6%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Wayne HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1488% → 87%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
12.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 4 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
12.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
12.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 43Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
13.4%
Dylan Drennan punt for 45 yds , Wayne Harris returns for no gain to the KENT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:3314% → 15%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
13.8%
Gavin Garcia run for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 11Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+7
13.8%
Gavin Garcia run for 7 yds to the KENT 18Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+5
14.2%
Dru DeShields run for 5 yds to the KENT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
15.1%
Cade Wolford run for 9 yds to the KENT 32Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 1
OWN 32
-9
16.0%
Kent State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dru DeShields) to the KENT 23Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
15.4%
Kent State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-5
15.2%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Buchanan,Martell) 5 yards from KSU27 to KSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
15.3%
punt blocked by Miles Greer, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 8 blocked by Miles GreerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
14.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked by Antoine Campbell Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the KENT 5 Ta'Quan Roberson fumbled, recovered by KENT Mason Woods , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:3716% → 22%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
16.1%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Hopperton,Hunter) 2 yards from KSU05 to KSU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+6
16.2%
Gavin Garcia run for 6 yds to the KENT 9Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+4
16.7%
Gavin Garcia run for 4 yds to the KENT 13Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+4
17.0%
Gavin Garcia run for 4 yds to the KENT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
18.0%
Dru DeShields run for 6 yds to the KENT 23Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
18.8%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Sebastian BrownSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+43
18.5%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Cade Wolford for 43 yds to the BUF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
21.3%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Sebastian Brown for 2 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+5
22.1%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Sebastian Brown for 5 yds to the BUF 31Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-5
22.7%
Dru DeShields sacked by Mitchell Gonser for a loss of 5 yards to the BUF 36Similar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
22.0%
Dru DeShields punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0978% → 76%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+12
22.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Chance Morrow for 12 yds to the BUF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
22.9%
James McNeil Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUF 16Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+5
23.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 5 yds to the BUF 21Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+11
25.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 11 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
24.2%
Dylan Drennan punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:4227% → 38%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
27.3%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for 1 yd to the KENT 44Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
28.0%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Jahzae Kimbrough for no gain to the KENT 44Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
27.5%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Ardell Banks for 15 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
38.3%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Cade Wolford for 41 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 1:0563% → 74%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
37.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 13 yds to the BUF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
37.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-5
36.3%
PENALTY BU False Start (Gathings,Jasaiah) 5 yards from BU28 to BU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
37.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+27
38.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
50
0
35.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
50
+5
36.4%
PENALTY KSU Offside (Davis,Jelani) 5 yards from BU50 to KSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+7
35.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the KENT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
25.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 38 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:1730% → 30%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
29.7%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the KENT 23Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
30.3%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Sebastian BrownSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+1
29.3%
Gavin Garcia run for 1 yd to the KENT 24Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
29.9%
Charlie Durkin punt for 43 yds , Victor Snow returns for 7 yds to the BUF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:4369% → 75%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
31.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 39Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+13
33.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Chance Morrow for 13 yds to the KENT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
29.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
31.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 13 yds to the KENT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
28.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 10 yds to the KENT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
28.8%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Roberson,Ta'Quan pass incomplete deep left to Snow,Victor thrown to KSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Muhammad,A'tiq) 15 yards from KSU25 to KSU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
28.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
24.7%
Jack Howes 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2827% → 25%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
26.6%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Hunter Hopperton for 1 yd to the KENT 21Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
26.7%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Wayne HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
25.8%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Wayne HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:16
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
25.2%
Charlie Durkin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3275% → 72%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
25.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 6 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
24.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-1
25.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 47Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+14
28.0%
Dylan Drennan punt for 42 yds , Wayne Harris returns for 14 yds to the KENT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5829% → 33%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.2%
Gavin Garcia run for 5 yds to the KENT 30Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
30.1%
Gavin Garcia run for 4 yds to the KENT 34Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
30.9%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for a loss of 3 yards to the KENT 31Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+19
33.0%
Charlie Durkin punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 47 , Victor Snow returns for 19 yds to the BUF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:4970% → 83%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
30.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Chance Morrow for 20 yds to the KENT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
29.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 5 yds to the KENT 28Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+7
29.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Chance Morrow for 7 yds to the KENT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
17.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Chance Morrow for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4322% → 22%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.7%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Wayne Harris for 2 yds to the KENT 27Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
22.3%
Dru DeShields run for 7 yds to the KENT 34Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
23.4%
Gavin Garcia run for no gain to the KENT 34Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
22.2%
Charlie Durkin punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:1278% → 89%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
21.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Messiah BurchSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
22.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+11
23.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 11 yds to the BUF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
22.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 3 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+33
22.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 33 yds to the KENT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
11.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 38 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1213% → 30%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
12.7%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun DeShields,Dru sacked for loss of 13 yards to the KSU12 (Stewart,Kobe) PENALTY BU Face Mask (Stewart,Kobe) 15 yards from KSU25 to KSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
13.4%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the KENT 38Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+10
13.1%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Hunter Hopperton for 10 yds to the KENT 48Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
14.0%
Dru DeShields run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
50
+50
30.4%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Terik Mulder for 50 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5976% → 74%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
24.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 13 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
22.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 3 yds to the BUF 43 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Evan King) to the BUF 33Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 17
OWN 33
+5
25.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+3
24.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 3 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+7
25.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
26.1%
Dylan Drennan punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22TD
23 plays · 93 yds · 12:0229% → 88%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
28.6%
Dru DeShields run for 1 yd to the KENT 8Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+9
28.8%
Gavin Garcia run for 9 yds to the KENT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
30.3%
Cade Wolford run for no gain to the KENT 17Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
30.6%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Ardell Banks for 11 yds to the KENT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
30.4%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for 3 yds to the KENT 31Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
31.2%
Jahzae Kimbrough run for 2 yds to the KENT 33Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-5
29.8%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Garcia,Gavin) 5 yards from KSU33 to KSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+9
28.9%
Dru DeShields run for 9 yds to the KENT 37Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+1
28.7%
Dru DeShields run for 1 yd to the KENT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-20
32.6%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun DeShields,Dru pass complete short left to Harris,Wayne caught at BU49, for 20 yards to the BU42 (Cooper,Marquis) PENALTY KSU Illegal Forward Pass offsetting BU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". PLAY STANDS.Similar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
32.8%
Gavin Garcia run for 5 yds to the KENT 43Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-10
35.7%
Kent State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KENT 33Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+13
31.7%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Jahzae Kimbrough for 13 yds to the KENT 46Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+16
35.6%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Christian Berry for 16 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
37.3%
Dru DeShields sacked by Junior Poyser for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 42Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+8
34.8%
Gavin Garcia run for 8 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+2
38.0%
Gavin Garcia run for 2 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+9
34.6%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 9 yds to the BUF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
41.4%
Gavin Garcia run for 3 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
42.2%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Terik Mulder for 6 yds to the BUF 3Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
39.7%
Gavin Garcia run for no gain to the BUF 3Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
87.5%
Dru DeShields run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 1:2322% → 90%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
78.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+26
78.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Chance Morrow for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
50
+15
72.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 15 yds to the KENT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
69.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 5 yds to the KENT 30Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+8
69.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 8 yds to the KENT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
69.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the KENT 22Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
71.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
10.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1624% → 21%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.1%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Wayne HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Sebastian BrownSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
21.9%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Wayne HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.6%
Dru DeShields run for 7 yds to the KENT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1791% → 94%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
9.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the KENT 28Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+3
5.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the KENT 25Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
5.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the KENT 23Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-4
6.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for a loss of 4 yards to the KENT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:1315% → 14%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
15.3%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Cade Wolford for 11 yds to the KENT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
16.2%
Dru DeShields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
15.4%
Dru DeShields pass incomplete to Cade WolfordSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+8
14.1%
Dru DeShields pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 8 yds Dashawn Martin fumbled, recovered by BUF Keontez BradleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:03
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-61.1
TD · Q4 2:38
Dru DeShields run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
+51.9
TD · Q3 2:58
Dru DeShields pass complete to Terik Mulder for 50 yds for a TD (Will Hryszko KICK)
+16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com