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ARMY

Army 17 at Kent State 39

KENT
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.1KENT 42.9%Anthony Melchiori 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 6 · Q2 12:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:59 · Anthony Melchiori 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior−11.6Home team on offense+1.9Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:31: Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 10 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK) — KENT win probability +12.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:52: Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 8 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK) — KENT win probability +12.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:18: Tony Giovannelli run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +14.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 12:12: Anthony Melchiori 32 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +9.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:11: Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 5 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK) — KENT win probability +11.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:33ARMY 4th & 14 at KENT 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:25KENT 4th & 3 at ARMY 10, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:18ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:59KENT 4th & 4 at ARMY 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:53KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 35, down 4
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:35ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05ARMY 4th & 8 at KENT 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 21, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%−2.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:12KENT 4th & 5 at ARMY 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:24KENT 4th & 6 at ARMY 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−10.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:18ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 39, down 6
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:12KENT 4th & 11 at ARMY 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−2.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:04ARMY 4th & 3 at KENT 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%−2.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:28ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 49, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 7:56ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:31KENT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:52KENT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:18ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:11KENT Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
34.2%
Colin Reardon pass intercepted Josh Jenkins return for no gain to the KntSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:2766% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
34.2%
KENT ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the KntSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 32
+9
34.2%
Larry Dixon run for 9 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
34.2%
Angel Santiago run for 7 yds to the KntSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+6
34.2%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the KntSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
34.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the KntSt 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
34.2%
Angel Santiago run for 6 yds to the KntSt 2 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (-16 Yards) to the KntSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+4
34.2%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Raymond Maples for 4 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
34.2%
Angel Santiago pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
35.5%
Daniel Grochowski 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 6:0835% → 38%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
35.3%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 12 yds to the KntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
35.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 5 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
35.7%
REARDON, Colin pass incomplete to PIERCE, Casey, PENALTY ARMY offside defense 5 yards to the KENT47, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
35.7%
Nick Holley run for no gain to the KntSt 47Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
35.6%
Nick Holley run for 2 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+13
35.5%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 13 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
35.7%
Nick Holley run for 9 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+12
35.8%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 12 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
35.8%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 4 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
35.8%
Nick Holley run for 3 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
35.7%
Nick Holley run for no gain to the Army 10Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
38.4%
Anthony Melchiori 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+24
37.9%
Terry Baggett run for 24 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.5%
Angel Santiago pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
37.7%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Kelvin White for 8 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-1
37.2%
Larry Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 43Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
37.8%
Alex Tardieu punt for 53 yds, downed at the KntSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6FG
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:2339% → 43%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
38.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 6 yds to the KntSt 10Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 4
OWN 10
-5
38.6%
Anthony Meray run for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 5Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 5
+12
38.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 12 yds to the KntSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
38.8%
Colin Reardon run for 5 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+10
38.9%
Colin Reardon run for 10 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
38.9%
Anthony Meray run for 4 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
41.3%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Nick HolleySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+24
40.2%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Josh Boyle for 24 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
42.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 22 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.4%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Casey PierceSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
42.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 6 yds to the Army 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
41.8%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Josh Boyle, broken up by Rhyan EnglandSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
42.9%
Anthony Melchiori 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:5758% → 65%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
42.5%
Larry Dixon run for 13 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, offside defense (NA) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
41.4%
Angel Santiago run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 4
50
+4
41.0%
Angel Santiago run for 4 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
41.0%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the KntSt 45Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
41.0%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+27
41.2%
Angel Santiago run for 27 yds to the KntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
40.2%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the KntSt 8Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
40.2%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the KntSt 5Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+3
40.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the KntSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.6%
Raymond Maples run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
37.7%
Nick Holley run for no gain to the KntSt 28Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
37.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 7 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
38.1%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Kris White, broken up by Josh JenkinsSimilar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
36.8%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 61 yds, downed at the Army 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:4462% → 61%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
37.8%
Angel Santiago run for 4 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+9
38.0%
Angel Santiago run for 9 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
37.3%
Raymond Maples run for 8 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+6
36.8%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
37.0%
Joe Walker run for 1 yd to the Army 32Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-7
37.1%
Baggett, Terry rush for 16 yards to the ARMY48 (CUTHBERT, Nick), PENALTY ARMY personal foul 7 yards to the ARMY25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+2
37.7%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
38.2%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Xavier MossSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
39.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:4941% → 53%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
41.2%
Nick Holley run for 24 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
42.1%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Ernest CalhounSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
40.7%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to James BrooksSimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
39.2%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 10 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
40.7%
Nick Holley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 10Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
53.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 10 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 34 yds · 1:1852% → 47%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
47.9%
Angel Santiago run for 5 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+12
47.0%
Tony Giovannelli run for 12 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
45.4%
Joe Walker pass incomplete to Angel SantiagoSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
46.1%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Raymond MaplesSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
47.0%
Santiago, Angel pass incomplete to Moss, Xavier, PENALTY KENT pass interference (PANNELL, M.) 15 yards to the KENT42, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
44.0%
Angel Santiago run for 5 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
43.6%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-5
47.1%
Angel Santiago sacked by Matt Dellinger and Nate Terhune for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 40Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
53.3%
Kelvin White pass incomplete to Xavier MossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
49.7%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 18Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-2
50.2%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 16Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+5
51.4%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Raymond Maples for 5 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 21
-13
52.3%
Alex Tardieu run for a loss of 13 yards to the Army 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:1256% → 69%
Q3 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
56.4%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Chris HumphreySimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
68.5%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 8 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:2834% → 53%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
65.6%
Tony Giovannelli run for 11 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
65.0%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
64.5%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Army 38Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+37
65.0%
Tony Giovannelli run for 37 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
61.3%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the KntSt 19Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+10
61.3%
Raymond Maples run for 10 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
61.3%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the KntSt 8Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
47.2%
Tony Giovannelli run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 4:4855% → 66%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
54.9%
Nick Holley run for no gain to the KntSt 29Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
54.5%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Casey PierceSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+32
53.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 32 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
58.4%
HOLLEY, Nick rush for 5 yards to the ARMY34 (Ugenyi, Mike), PENALTY KENT holding (SCOTT, Wayne) 10 yards to the ARMY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
56.6%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Casey PierceSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+6
56.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 6 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+9
55.2%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+9
55.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 9 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
59.3%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Josh Boyle for 11 yds to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
61.5%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 4 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
61.5%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Chris HumphreySimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
60.9%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Casey PierceSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
65.5%
Anthony Melchiori 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
60.3%
Angel Santiago run for 4 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
59.2%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
59.2%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
59.0%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Army 33 Angel Santiago fumbled, recovered by Army Angel SantiagoSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
59.7%
Tony Giovannelli run for 6 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
58.4%
Terry Baggett run for no gain to the Army 39Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+45
60.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 45 yds , James Brooks returns for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:5970% → 81%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
70.2%
Miles Hibbler run for 17 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
70.8%
Colin Reardon run for 23 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
75.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 20 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
75.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 11 yds to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
75.4%
HOLLEY, Nick rush for no gain to the ARMY14 (Voit, John), PENALTY KENT holding (SCOTT, Wayne) 10 yards to the ARMY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 24
-3
75.2%
Colin Reardon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 23
OPP 27
0
74.4%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Chris HumphreySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 23
OPP 27
+12
72.3%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 12 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
81.3%
Anthony Melchiori 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
79.7%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
79.2%
Tony Giovannelli run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
50
0
77.0%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Tony GiovannelliSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
50
+11
77.8%
Joe Walker run for 11 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
76.8%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
76.4%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the KntSt 35Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+3
77.4%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+1
79.2%
Tony Giovannelli run for 1 yd to the KntSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:3485% → 98%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
84.6%
Anthony Meray run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 29Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+46
84.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 46 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
86.3%
Anthony Meray run for 6 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+14
86.3%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 14 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 5 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
94.7%
Angel Santiago run for 5 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+26
94.2%
Angel Santiago pass intercepted Malcolm Pannell return for 26 yds to the Army 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:2098% → 100%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
98.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 30 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.3%
Colin Reardon run for no gain to the Army 7Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
Colin Reardon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori BLOCKED), (Anthony Melchiori BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.3%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Tony Giovannelli for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
99.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.3%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Xavier Moss for 11 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.3%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Xavier MossSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.3%
Joe Walker run for 6 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-3
99.3%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 49Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Schurr, A.J. pass incomplete to Giovannelli, T., PENALTY ARMY illegal forward pass (Schurr, A.J.) 0 yards to the ARMY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Joe WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.8%
Nathan Strock run for 7 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
99.8%
Anthony Meray run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Anthony Meray run for 1 yd to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:18
Tony Giovannelli run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q2 1:31
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 10 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q3 12:52
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 8 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com