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TOL

Toledo 30 at Kent State 20

KENT
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 4, 2014 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:31 · Anthony Melchiori punt for 38 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior−27.5Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:54: Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 16 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +8.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:25: Nick Holley run for 50 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK) — KENT win probability +9.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:53: Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 2 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +6.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:58: Nathan Strock pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 4 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK) — KENT win probability +9.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:15: Nathan Strock pass complete to Casey Pierce for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — KENT win probability +7.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:54TOL 4th & 3 at KENT 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31KENT 4th & 14 at TOL 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:46TOL 4th & 5 at KENT 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:46KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 49, down 6
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:42TOL 4th & 9 at KENT 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:48KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:35KENT 4th & 10 at TOL 40, down 16
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:25KENT 4th & 1 at midfield, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:58KENT 4th & 3 at TOL 4, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:04TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 49, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.3%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:10TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:33TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−3.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:31KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:58TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 2:54TOL Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:20TOL Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:25KENT Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:53TOL Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:58KENT Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:15KENT Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:0680% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
20.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 18 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
20.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+16
20.6%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
20.7%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 21
-2
21.0%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 23Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+7
21.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 7 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
21.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 5 yds to the KntSt 11Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+2
21.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the KntSt 9Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
22.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
22.1%
Jeremiah Detmer 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:2322% → 23%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
22.2%
Nick Holley run for 12 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
22.7%
Colin Reardon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
22.6%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Kris WhiteSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+13
22.5%
Reardon, Colin pass incomplete to Humphrey, Chris, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Dukes, Chris) 13 yards to the TOLEDO46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
23.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 12 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
23.2%
KENT ST Penalty, False Start (Kris White) to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-5
23.1%
KENT ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+6
23.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to James Brooks for 6 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 14
OPP 38
0
23.3%
Colin Reardon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 14
OPP 38
0
23.2%
Colin Reardon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
22.9%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:4577% → 78%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
23.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 18 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
22.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 28 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
22.8%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
22.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kareem HuntSimilar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+15
23.4%
Woodside, Logan pass incomplete to Roberts, Michael, PENALTY KENTST roughing passer (Byrd, Jontey) 15 yards to the KENTST16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
23.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the KntSt 12Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
23.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Dwight MaconSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+1
23.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the KntSt 11Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
22.4%
Jeremiah Detmer 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0023% → 23%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
22.9%
Nick Holley run for 3 yds to the KntSt 16Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+15
23.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 15 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
23.4%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Chris HumphreySimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-4
23.4%
Nick Holley run for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 27Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
23.0%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Ernest CalhounSimilar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 14
OWN 27
-3
22.9%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 37 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:2577% → 77%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
23.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 15 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
22.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
22.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+8
22.8%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the KntSt 48 Marc Remy fumbled, recovered by KntSt Nick Cuthbert KENT ST Penalty, Sideline Interference (5 Yards) to the KntSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3225% → 24%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
24.5%
Nick Holley run for 1 yd to the KntSt 44Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-5
24.5%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+10
23.7%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 10 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
24.2%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 33 yds, downed at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:0776% → 78%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
24.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+43
24.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 43 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
22.9%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
22.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+7
22.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 7 yds to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
22.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
22.4%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 28Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
22.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
22.2%
Jeremiah Detmer 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5422% → 22%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.8%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for no gain to the KntSt 25Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
21.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 14 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
22.5%
Nick Holley run for 9 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-4
23.2%
Nick Holley run for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 44Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
22.5%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Josh BoyleSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
21.8%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 6:5477% → 88%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
23.2%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+11
23.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
23.0%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
21.1%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
20.9%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
20.5%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
20.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-5
20.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Robert Lisowski) to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+27
20.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 27 yds to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
20.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 28Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
20.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+7
20.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 7 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
12.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 16 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:1916% → 16%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 3 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+32
15.8%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 32 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
17.3%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to James BrooksSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
17.1%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Ernest CalhounSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
16.8%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to James BrooksSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
16.3%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 32 yds, downed at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:3588% → 87%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
12.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 17
0
11.6%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+4
12.6%
Logan Woodside run for 4 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12INT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0015% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
15.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 9 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
16.2%
Colin Reardon run for no gain to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
16.0%
Miles Hibbler run for 5 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
16.0%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Chris HumphreySimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
15.7%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Miles HibblerSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+28
15.2%
Colin Reardon pass intercepted Jordan Haden return for 13 yds to the KENTST 43 TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Treyvon Hester) to the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:4088% → 94%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
11.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+32
11.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 32 yds to the KntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
10.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the KntSt 8Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
10.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
5.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 8 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:558% → 15%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
8.4%
Nathan Strock run for 8 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
6.7%
Nick Holley run for no gain to the KntSt 36Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
6.1%
Nick Holley run for 5 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
5.7%
Nathan Strock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
5.6%
Nathan Strock pass incomplete to James BrooksSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
5.5%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 1
50
+50
14.8%
Nick Holley run for 50 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3289% → 98%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
10.8%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 25 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Elcee Refuge) to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
10.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 28 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
9.7%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
9.3%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the KntSt 24Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+14
8.9%
Woodside, Logan pass incomplete to Russell, Alonzo, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (Murray, Najee) 14 yards to the KENTST10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
8.6%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 8Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
8.3%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the KntSt 2Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 2 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:554% → 14%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+65
3.7%
Nathan Strock run for 65 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
4.4%
Nathan Strock pass incomplete to Chris HumphreySimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
4.4%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Kris White for 7 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
4.5%
Nathan Strock pass incomplete to Chris HumphreySimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
13.7%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 4 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:5492% → 95%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
8.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
6.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
5.7%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
5.6%
Michael Julian pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
4.3%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 4
OWN 49
-24
4.7%
Nick Ellis run for a loss of 24 yards to the Toled 25 Nick Ellis fumbled, recovered by Toled Nick EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4515% → 22%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
14.9%
Nathan Strock run for 2 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+14
14.9%
Nick Holley run for 14 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
14.5%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Kris White for 4 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
14.4%
Nick Holley run for 2 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.9%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Casey Pierce for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0582% → 83%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
18.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
15.4%
Michael Julian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
16.1%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
16.8%
Nick Ellis punt for 51 yds, downed at the KntSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:2517% → 19%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
17.0%
Nick Holley run for 7 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
16.8%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Casey Pierce for 5 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
16.6%
Nathan Strock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
16.5%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Casey Pierce for 10 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
15.4%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Kris White for 12 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
16.3%
Strock, Nathan pass incomplete to Calhoun, Ernest, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (Sylvestre, Junior) 15 yards to the TOLEDO28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
18.5%
Nathan Strock run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 16 Nathan Strock fumbled, recovered by Toled Treyvon Hester TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Toled 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:1289% → 90%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
11.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+5
11.4%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+14
11.2%
Michael Julian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 30 Michael Julian fumbled, recovered by Toled Kareem Hunt for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
10.3%
Michael Julian run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
9.9%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-7
10.2%
Michael Julian pass complete to Terry Swanson for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
9.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 51 yds, fair catch by James Brooks at the KntSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0212% → 9%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.8%
Nathan Strock sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 24Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
9.9%
Nathan Strock pass incomplete to Chris HumphreySimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
9.0%
Nathan Strock pass incomplete to Ernest CalhounSimilar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
8.5%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 63 yds, downed at the Toled 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:3395% → 97%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
5.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+4
4.3%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
4.3%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
3.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
2.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
2.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+1
2.5%
Michael Julian run for 1 yd to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
2.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 44 yds, downed at the KntSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:314% → 4%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
3.5%
Nathan Strock pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 13 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
3.5%
Nathan Strock pass incomplete to Casey PierceSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
3.6%
Nathan Strock pass intercepted Trent Voss return for 4 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:25
Nick Holley run for 50 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q3 1:58
Nathan Strock pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 4 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 2:54
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 16 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com