2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Ohio Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:00 · Anthony Melchiori punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:30: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Rod Smith for 8 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:49: Rod Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:16: Sean Nuernberger 41 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:43: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 63 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KENT made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 11:35KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 33, down 7Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:06KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q1 0:46KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 4, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q2 14:16OSU 4th & 21 at KENT 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.6%−0.48% to convertField goalTheir call96.0%68% to makePunt95.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 12:59KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 21, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 9:29KENT 4th & 21 at KENT 40, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q2 6:46OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 48, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:46KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 34, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 12:00KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 4, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 7:03KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 42, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:26KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 45, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:00KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 39, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 5:55OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 25, up 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 4:50KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 41, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:00OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 41, up 66Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 13:16OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:30OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:49OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:43OSU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:34OSU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:38OSU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:20OSU Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:08OSU Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:38OSU Touchdown, up 65 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1TD6 plays · 58 yds · 1:3297% → 96%
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+37
96.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 22 yds to the OHIOST 32 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Darius Redmond) to the KntSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+8
96.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 8 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
96.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 14 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:314% → 4%
OSUDrive 3TD9 plays · 65 yds · 1:5996% → 96%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
96.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 7 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
96.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
96.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 6 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
96.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 14 yds to the KntSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Rod Smith for 8 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4INT7 plays · 19 yds · 1:324% → 4%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 3 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+12
96.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 12 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
96.2%
Colin Reardon pass intercepted Tyvis Powell return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5INT6 plays · 42 yds · 0:5496% → 96%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
96.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 12 yds to the KntSt 8 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Illegal Participation ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.3%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted Matt Dellinger return for no gain to the KntSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:294% → 4%
OSUDrive 7TD7 plays · 54 yds · 2:1096% → 97%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
96.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 19 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
96.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 14 yds to the KntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+10
96.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 10 yds to the KntSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
96.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 7 yds to the KntSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:543% → 3%
Q1 0:46
4TH & 12
OWN 4
+22
97.2%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 49 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 22 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9FG5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3097% → 98%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
97.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 6 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Terence Waugh) to the KntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-11
97.3%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Marques Moore and Nate Vance for a loss of 11 yards to the KntSt 24 J.T. Barrett fumbled, recovered by OhSt J.T. Barrett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:463% → 3%
OSUDrive 11TD2 plays · 63 yds · 0:1198% → 99%
KENTDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:061% → 1%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.9%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 6 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
98.3%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for no gain to the KntSt 47Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 14
OWN 47
-7
98.2%
Colin Reardon sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD14 plays · 94 yds · 4:5199% → 99%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.7%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the OhSt 25 J.T. Barrett fumbled, recovered by OhSt J.T. BarrettSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+9
98.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 9 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 4 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
99.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 12 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
99.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 2 yds to the KntSt 16Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+14
99.4%
KENT ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the KntSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14INT8 plays · 29 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
99.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 12 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
99.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 11 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Josh Boyle for 1 yd to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Colin Reardon pass intercepted Joshua Perry return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD1 play · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
50
+50
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 50 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16END OF HALF7 plays · 18 yds · 1:200% → 0%
KENTDrive 17FUMBLE5 plays · 6 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q3 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 6 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+42
99.6%
Anthony Melchiori punt blocked by Jeff Greene blocked by Jeff Greene Jeff Greene return for 42 yds to the KntSt 2 Ron Tanner return for 22 yds to the KntSt 2 Ron Tanner fumbled, recovered by KntSt Steve NagySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:400% → 0%
OSUDrive 19TD7 plays · 28 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
KENTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
99.8%
Colin Reardon sacked by Raekwon McMillan for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 34Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Anthony Meray for 3 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 5 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+51
99.9%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 46 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 51 yds to the OHIOST 7 KENT ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the KntSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD5 plays · 32 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Strock, Nathan pass incomplete to Meray, Anthony, PENALTY OHIOST roughing passer (Holmes, Jalyn) 15 yards to the KENTST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Nathan Strock pass complete to William Woods for 3 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD12 plays · 98 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
KENTDrive 24INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
100.0%
Colin Reardon pass intercepted Erick Smith return for 5 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25FUMBLE2 plays · 9 yds · 0:20100% → 100%
KENTDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:400% → 0%
OSUDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 5:55
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Cameron Johnston punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 28PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
100.0%
Nathan Strock sacked by Trey Johnson and Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 29DOWNS11 plays · 39 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-4
100.0%
Johnnie Dixon run for 6 yds to the OhSt 29 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:49
Rod Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 12:43
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 63 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+0.9
FG · Q2 14:16
Sean Nuernberger 41 yd FG GOOD
+0.6