Try the model
KENT

Kent State 41 at Buffalo 70

BUF
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · UB Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreKENT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:17 · Ian Henzi punt for 37 yds, downed at the Buff 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior+19.9Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:46: Jaret Patterson run for 49 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +8.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:17: Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +9.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:42: Xavier Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +11.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 10:01: Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +10.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:17: Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) KENT ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — BUF win probability +11.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 14:17KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16KENT 4th & 2 at BUF 10, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:10BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 2 at BUF 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:14KENT 4th & 7 at BUF 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:14BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:00KENT 4th & 1 at BUF 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:01KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 34, down 11
    Close callPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:21KENT 4th & 18 at BUF 18, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:58KENT 4th & 1 at BUF 20, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:16KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 38, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 10KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:17BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:04BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:04KENT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:21BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:33KENT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:46BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:29KENT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:17BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:42KENT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 10:01BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:17BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:27BUF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 7:44BUF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 4:58KENT Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 1:16BUF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4370% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+62
70.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 62 yds to the KntSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
70.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
70.2%
Dustin Crum sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 21Similar
Q1 14:17
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
70.3%
Ian Henzi punt for 37 yds, downed at the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:3971% → 72%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
70.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 14 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
70.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 8 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+5
70.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
72.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 31 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:4128% → 29%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
71.8%
Dustin Crum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
71.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 5 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+17
71.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 17 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
71.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+12
71.4%
Dustin Crum run for 12 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
71.4%
Dustin Crum run for 4 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
71.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
71.6%
Dustin Crum run for 1 yd to the Buff 10Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
71.1%
Matthew Trickett 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
72.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
72.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
72.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
71.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany RuizSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
71.7%
Evan Finegan punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1628% → 32%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
72.0%
Xavier Williams run for 14 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
71.8%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin pass complete to MCKOY, Isaiah for 46 yards to the UB20 (BROWN, E.J.), PENALTY KENTST illegal block (WHALEY, Zach) 15 yards to the KENTST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+14
72.1%
Dustin Crum run for 14 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+39
72.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 39 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
70.8%
Bryan Bradford run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+15
70.8%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah (BAKER, Roy), PENALTY UB pass interference (BAKER, Roy) 15 yards to the UB9, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
70.8%
Dante Cephas run for 6 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kris Leach for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3770% → 74%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
70.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
70.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 6 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
70.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
70.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+42
74.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 42 yds for a TD KENT ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:0726% → 26%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
73.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
73.0%
Bryan Bradford run for 12 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
72.5%
Bryan Bradford run for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
72.6%
Bryan Bradford run for 2 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-5
72.7%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin pass complete to MCKOY, Isaiah for 7 yards to the UB36 (WASHINGTON, Aap), PENALTY KENTST ineligible downfield on pass (GREGOIRE, Adam) 5 yards to the UB48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+8
73.2%
Bryan Bradford run for 8 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+10
73.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 10 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
72.1%
Bryan Bradford run for 9 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
71.9%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaac VanceSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-1
72.4%
Bryan Bradford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 22
-5
73.0%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
74.2%
Matthew Trickett 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
75.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
75.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
75.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
74.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 47 yds , Raymond James returns for no gain to the KntSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4625% → 33%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
74.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 9 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+9
73.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
66.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 42 yds for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4769% → 78%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
68.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 26 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
77.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 49 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:1724% → 33%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.6%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah (KING, Isaiah), PENALTY UB pass interference (KING, Isaiah) 15 yards to the KENTST40, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.8%
Ja'Shaun Poke run for no gain to the KntSt 40Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
75.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
75.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 10 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
74.2%
Dustin Crum run for 8 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+6
74.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 6 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
73.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+5
73.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
73.3%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UB26 (BROWN, E.J.), PENALTY KENTST holding off-setting, PENALTY UB holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
73.3%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaac VanceSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
73.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
66.6%
Dustin Crum run for 20 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1270% → 81%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+32
70.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 32 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
71.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+15
71.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 15 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
71.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
71.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 11Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+10
71.1%
Kyle Vantrease run for 10 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 68 yds · 1:1721% → 22%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
79.4%
Bryan Bradford run for 11 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+36
79.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 36 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
76.5%
Bryan Bradford run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
75.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
76.3%
Dustin Crum run for 5 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
75.3%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Dante Cephas, broken up by Isaiah KingSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
75.7%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoySimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+9
77.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 9 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
78.2%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Malcolm KoonceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:5780% → 83%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
80.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+10
80.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
80.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
81.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
82.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 7 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
82.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
82.8%
[SGUN], VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to RUIZ, Jovany, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (SALAAM, Jerem.) 15 yards to the KENTST30, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
83.3%
Alex McNulty 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1820% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
80.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 45 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
77.4%
Xavier Williams run for 9 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+15
77.1%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah (BAKER, Roy), PENALTY UB pass interference (BAKER, Roy) 15 yards to the UB6, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
77.1%
Xavier Williams run for no gain to the Buff 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
77.1%
Xavier Williams run for 5 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.4%
Xavier Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:3670% → 84%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
70.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+18
71.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 18 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
72.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+17
72.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Dean Clark) to the KntSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
72.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
72.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the KntSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
72.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 7Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
80.8%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 27Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
82.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 7 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
81.7%
Ian Henzi punt for 50 yds, downed at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 6:5083% → 96%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
83.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
83.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany Ruiz, broken up by Dean ClarkSimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+6
82.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 6 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
83.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany Ruiz, broken up by Matt HarmonSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
83.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+28
82.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 28 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
84.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+18
83.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 18 yds to the KntSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
84.3%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 23Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+3
84.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+6
83.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+7
82.7%
[PSTL], VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to NUNN, Antonio, PENALTY KENTST holding (BUTLER, Tony) 7 yards to the KENTST7, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
84.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for no gain to the KntSt 7Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.6%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) KENT ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
94.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 10 yds to the KntSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
94.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Jeremiah Salaam for 7 yds to the KntSt 27Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
94.2%
Dustin Crum pass intercepted Cory Gross Jr. return for no gain to the KntSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:5596% → 100%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
96.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 12 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
96.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Kayode Awosika) to the KntSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+4
96.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+4
96.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+7
96.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the KntSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
96.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 11Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
99.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:591% → 1%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.0%
Bryan Bradford run for 1 yd to the KntSt 36Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+44
99.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 44 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
98.8%
Dustin Crum run for 7 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+3
98.8%
Bryan Bradford run for 3 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
98.8%
Dustin Crum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
99.3%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin pass complete to CEPHAS, Dante for 11 yards to the UB0, clock 10:23, PENALTY KENTST ineligible downfield on pass (GREGOIRE, Adam) 5 yards to the UB16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+3
99.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-5
99.4%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin pass complete to POKE, Ja'Shaun for 10 yards to the UB3 (BROWN, E.J.), PENALTY KENTST ineligible downfield on pass (MONNIN, Nathan) 5 yards to the UB18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
99.2%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+35
98.9%
Matthew Trickett 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:3699% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
98.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
98.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+58
99.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 58 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:400% → 1%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
[SGUN], CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah, PENALTY UB holding (HUDGENS, Logic) 10 yards to the KENTST40, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoySimilar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
50
+11
99.9%
Dustin Crum run for 11 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Dustin Crum run for no gain to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Dustin Crum run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaac VanceSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+7
99.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+20
99.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 20 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:4199% → 100%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
99.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
99.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the KntSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the KntSt 15Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
100.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Keshunn AbramSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
100.0%
Collin Schlee run for 11 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Dante CephasSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
100.0%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (Bill Kuduk) to the KntSt 28Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+10
100.0%
Joachim Bangda run for 10 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Dante CephasSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Ian Henzi punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:42
Xavier Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q3 1:17
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) KENT ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+11.4
TD · Q3 10:01
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com