2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:13 · Josh Smith punt for 38 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 38 IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Iowa 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:19: Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 5 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +3.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:17: Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 18 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST down — IOWA win probability +2.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:32: Tyler Goodson run for 35 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:13: Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 10 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST down — KENT win probability +1.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:07: Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:51IOWA 4th & 6 at KENT 42, tiedClose callPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.5%40% to convertField goal91.4%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call91.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:22KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 33, tiedClose callPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it9.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:25IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snapGo for it90.5%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.7%average punt
- Q2 13:38KENT 4th & 20 at KENT 27, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.4%−0.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.1%average punt
- Q2 11:27IOWA 4th & 5 at KENT 44, up 2Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snapGo for it87.0%41% to convertField goal86.7%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call86.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:57KENT 4th & 16 at IOWA 34, down 2Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.516% to convertField goal14.0%47% to makePuntTheir call13.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 13:05KENT 4th & 8 at IOWA 35, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.3%34% to convertField goal12.2%−0.245% to makePunt11.6%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:34IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 40, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.3%average punt
- Q3 8:25KENT 4th & 1 at IOWA 44, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.0%70% to convertField goal9.7%−3.427% to makePunt10.8%−2.2average punt
- Q3 2:18IOWA 4th & 2 at KENT 40, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.2%57% to convertField goal87.3%−1.934% to makePunt87.5%−1.7average punt
- Q4 14:12KENT 4th & 13 at KENT 13, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q4 11:25IOWA 4th & 9 at KENT 42, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.3%32% to convertField goal96.0%−0.330% to makePunt96.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:13KENT 4th & 19 at KENT 40, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.611% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q4 7:32IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 18, up 16Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:37KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 30, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q4 2:18KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 31, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 0:20IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 49, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.6%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:34IOWA Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:00KENT Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.6%97% to makeGo for two10.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19IOWA Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:32IOWA Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:07IOWA Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 2:5792% → 92%
Q1 13:23
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+9
92.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 9 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+4
91.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 4 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+17
91.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 10 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:169% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5791% → 91%
Q1 9:25
4TH & 16
OWN 32
-3
90.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 57 yds , Nykeim Johnson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4SF4 plays · -8 yds · 1:109% → 9%
IOWADrive 5TD4 plays · 55 yds · 0:4291% → 91%
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
90.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 9 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:289% → 11%
IOWADrive 7FUMBLE10 plays · 53 yds · 3:4490% → 89%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
89.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 17 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+8
89.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jackson Ritter for 8 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
89.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Monte Pottebaum for no gain to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the KntSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
89.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the KntSt 22 Ivory Kelly-Martin fumbled, recovered by KntStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 2:0112% → 12%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
88.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 4 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
88.0%
Dustin Crum sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 36Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+5
88.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Luke Floriea for 5 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
88.3%
Josh Smith punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0588% → 87%
KENTDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 46 yds · 2:1013% → 14%
Q2 10:19
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+45
86.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 45 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
85.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 4 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+9
85.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 9 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-6
84.9%
Dustin Crum sacked by Lukas Van Ness for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 34 KENT ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD22 plays · 95 yds · 8:2286% → 89%
Q2 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+9
85.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 9 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+11
84.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 11 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 3
50
+6
85.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 6 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+11
85.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 11 yds Ivory Kelly-Martin fumbled, recovered by Iowa Sam LaPorta for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+2
85.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 2 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+10
84.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 10 yds to the KntSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+11
85.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for 11 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
85.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 2 yds to the KntSt 5Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 5 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0912% → 13%
KENTDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 40 yds · 1:4612% → 12%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 7 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
87.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 4 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
87.1%
IOWA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
86.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Marquez Cooper for no gain to the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2289% → 88%
Q3 11:34
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+9
88.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 45 yds , Nykeim Johnson returns for 9 yds to the KntSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15DOWNS15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4212% → 14%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
87.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 9 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
87.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 6 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
86.6%
Bryan Bradford run for 5 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the Iowa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.1%
Bryan Bradford run for no gain Bryan Bradford fumbled, recovered by IowaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:4589% → 96%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
88.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 18 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
90.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for 2 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
90.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for 1 yd to the KntSt 40Similar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
90.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Monte Pottebaum for 2 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-1
90.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:545% → 5%
IOWADrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 4 yds · 2:3496% → 96%
Q4 11:25
4TH & 9
OPP 42
+3
96.4%
Tory Taylor pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 3 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:005% → 4%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
94.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 10 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-2
94.7%
Dustin Crum sacked by Zach VanValkenburg for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 47Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-7
95.8%
Dustin Crum sacked by Zach VanValkenburg for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 40Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 19
OWN 40
-2
96.3%
Josh Smith punt for 38 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 38 IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Iowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2897% → 97%
KENTDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 1:454% → 3%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22TD4 plays · 64 yds · 1:1598% → 99%
KENTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:181% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:32
Tyler Goodson run for 35 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 0:19
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 5 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)
+3.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:17
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 18 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST down
+2.8