2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:51 · Josh Smith punt for 38 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for no gain to the BwGrn 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 5:44: Nate Needham 42 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- FG · Q1 1:15: Andrew Glass 32 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +1.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 11:35: Nate Needham 52 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:33: Andrew Glass 32 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +1.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Andrew Glass 33 yd FG MISSED — BGSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 5:44BGSU 4th & 18 at KENT 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.4%−0.312% to convertField goalTheir call14.6%68% to makePunt14.0%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:15KENT 4th & 9 at BGSU 16, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snapGo for it82.5%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call82.7%81% to makePunt81.2%−1.5average punt
- Q2 11:35BGSU 4th & 14 at KENT 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snapGo for it15.4%−0.419% to convertField goalTheir call15.8%47% to makePunt15.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:33KENT 4th & 10 at BGSU 16, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snapGo for it80.1%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call80.6%81% to makePunt78.0%−2.5average punt
- Q2 5:15BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 48, down 7Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.4%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 3:04KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snapGo for it82.5%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%average punt
- Q2 1:40BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:00KENT 4th & 7 at BGSU 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snapGo for it82.6%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call83.0%81% to makePunt78.5%−4.5average punt
- Q3 14:47BGSU 4th & 1 at KENT 6, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.4%69% to convertField goal13.7%−1.891% to makePunt8.9%−6.6average punt
- Q3 11:08KENT 4th & 20 at KENT 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snapGo for it83.3%−2.99% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
- Q3 4:24KENT 4th & 15 at BGSU 39, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snapGo for it85.8%−0.817% to convertField goal86.5%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call86.6%average punt
- Q4 14:49BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it9.2%−2.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q4 13:51KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 25, up 10Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.8%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:38BGSU 4th & 7 at KENT 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.1%36% to convertField goal5.8%−0.264% to makePunt4.5%−1.6average punt
- Q4 1:36KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 32, up 10Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:37BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 24, down 10Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.2%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:44KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.7%97% to makeGo for two85.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1TD15 plays · 75 yds · 3:1688% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 10 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
87.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 14 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
87.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
87.9%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Monnin,Nathan) 5 yards from BGS33 to BGS38. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2FG15 plays · 38 yds · 5:5613% → 13%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
87.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 6 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
87.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 1 yd to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
87.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
87.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 6 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
87.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 6 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
87.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 1 yd to the KntSt 17Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 11
OPP 17
-5
87.4%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Zimmerly,Cade) 5 yards from KSU17 to KSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 16
OPP 22
-5
87.6%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Gazarek,Levi) 5 yards from KSU22 to KSU27. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3FG14 plays · 59 yds · 4:2986% → 87%
Q1 5:44
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+23
86.5%
Dustin Crum run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jordan Anderson) to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+15
85.2%
PENALTY BGS Roughing The Passer (Brooks,Karl) 15 yards from BGS32 to BGS17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4FG12 plays · 37 yds · 4:3313% → 15%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+11
86.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 11 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
86.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 9 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-5
85.7%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Banks-Wall,Jeremiah) 5 yards from KSU47 to BGS48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+22
86.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 22 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-16
85.3%
Matt McDonald sacked by A.J. Musolino for a loss of 16 yards to the KntSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 44
+10
86.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 10 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5FG12 plays · 40 yds · 2:5684% → 86%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
84.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+6
84.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 6 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
84.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 7 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 3:1814% → 14%
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
85.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 12 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+7
85.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 7 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
85.4%
McDonald,Matt pass complete to Sims,Christian for 17 yards to the KSU30, End Of Play PENALTY BGS Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Murphy,Jordan) 5 yards from KSU47 to BGS48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+10
86.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 43 yds , Nykeim Johnson returns for 10 yds to the KntSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:1186% → 85%
BGSUDrive 8DOWNS8 plays · 20 yds · 1:2414% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9FG9 plays · 16 yds · 1:4086% → 85%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
85.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 3 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 1
OPP 10
-5
86.0%
Crum,Dustin pass complete to Hackett,Aaron for 10 yards to the BGS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY KSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Gregorie,Adam) 5 yards from BGS10 to BGS15. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10TD6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5916% → 16%
Q3 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 4 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -10 yds · 1:3388% → 86%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
87.9%
Williams,Xavier rush for 0 yards to the KSU43 (Roberts,Billie) PENALTY KSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from KSU43 to KSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-10
86.7%
Crum,Dustin rush for 6 yards gain to the KSU44 (Anderson,Jordan) PENALTY KSU Holding (Kuduk,Bill) 10 yards from KSU38 to KSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12TD7 plays · 66 yds · 2:0314% → 16%
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+18
86.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 18 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
85.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 12
50
+17
85.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 17 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
84.5%
KENT ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Macyo Williams) to the KntSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
84.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 6 yds to the KntSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:3287% → 88%
Q3 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
87.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-15
88.2%
KENT ST Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+11
87.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 11 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
86.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 2 yds Levi Gazarek fumbled, forced by Nico Bolden, recovered by KntSt CJ WestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5389% → 87%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
88.9%
Crum,Dustin pass complete to Cephas,Dante for 15 yards to the BGS19, out of bounds PENALTY KSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Allan,Sam) 5 yards from BGS34 to BGS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
86.8%
Josh Smith punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 4:3512% → 10%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
87.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 6 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
87.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 6 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+19
87.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 19 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
86.3%
Matt McDonald sacked by Saivon Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 16
OWN 36
-5
87.4%
Matt McDonald sacked by Brandon Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 21
OWN 31
+4
89.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 4 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5889% → 88%
BGSUDrive 18INT8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2612% → 11%
Q4 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+19
87.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 19 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+28
87.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 28 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-6
85.1%
Matt McDonald sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19TD14 plays · 74 yds · 4:2289% → 94%
BGSUDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 40 yds · 3:207% → 5%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
93.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 6 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+14
92.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 14 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
92.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 7 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+3
95.0%
Matt McDonald run for no gain to the KntSt 23 Matt McDonald fumbled, forced by Adin Huntington, recovered by BwGrn Cade Zimmerly Cade ZimmerlySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT11 plays · 6 yds · 1:0296% → 97%
Q4 2:38
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+2
95.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 2 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+2
95.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 2 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Josh Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · -3 yds · 0:593% → 3%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
96.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 7 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
96.6%
Matt McDonald sacked by Zayin West for 0 yards to the BwGrn 24 Matt McDonald fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Cade Zimmerly , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+2.3
FG · Q2 8:33
Andrew Glass 32 yd FG GOOD
+1.4
FG · Q2 11:35
Nate Needham 52 yd FG GOOD
-1.3