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BUF

Buffalo 38 at Kent State 48

KENT
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-15KENT 69.7%Andrew Glass 42 yd FG GOODAWAY 31 - HOME 34 · Q3 2:21
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:21 · Andrew Glass 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+6.2Home team on offense+5.9Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 2:21: Andrew Glass 42 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +15.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:43: Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +27.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:19: Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +23.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:42: Alex McNulty 24 yd FG MISSED — BUF win probability +11.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:10: Alex McNulty 45 yd FG MISSED — BUF win probability +22.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:34BUF 4th & 7 at KENT 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:28BUF 4th & 6 at KENT 27, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28BUF 4th & 6 at KENT 27, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:02KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:06BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:00BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:19BUF 4th & 1 at KENT 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−1.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19BUF 4th & 11 at KENT 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:19KENT 4th & 1 at BUF 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−2.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00KENT 4th & 5 at BUF 9, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:33KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:37KENT 4th & 24 at BUF 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:01BUF 4th & 2 at KENT 4, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−10.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:21KENT 4th & 4 at BUF 25, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−6.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:42BUF 4th & 5 at KENT 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−2.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−15.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:10BUF 4th & 6 at KENT 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−18.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:38KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:38BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.4%−3.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:31KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 31, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:34KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:16KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:19KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:03BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:12KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:31BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:57BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:43BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:19KENT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:2671% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+54
71.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 54 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
71.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+9
71.3%
Nykeim Johnson run for 9 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
71.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.3%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
71.3%
PENALTY KSU False Start 5 yards from BUF05 to BUF10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
71.8%
Dustin Crum run for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2DOWNS
17 plays · 48 yds · 5:0628% → 28%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.6%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
71.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 10 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
71.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
71.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
71.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+15
71.7%
PENALTY KSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from BUF43 to KSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
71.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+5
71.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
71.4%
Matt Myers run for no gain to the KntSt 34Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-5
71.5%
PENALTY BUF False Start (Klenk,Jack) 5 yards from KSU34 to KSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+8
71.6%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 8 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
71.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
71.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+3
71.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for 3 yds to the KntSt 27Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 6
OPP 27
0
72.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 6
OPP 27
0
72.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2672% → 72%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
72.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the KntSt 28Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+9
72.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the KntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.6%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Dante CephasSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
72.5%
KENT ST Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
72.2%
KENT ST Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
72.1%
Josh Smith punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5628% → 27%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
72.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
72.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jake MolinichSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 6
OWN 34
-5
72.8%
PENALTY BUF False Start (Weitz,Fabien) 5 yards from BUF34 to BUF29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
73.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the KntSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:5073% → 78%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
72.8%
Dustin Crum run for 9 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
73.1%
Dustin Crum run for 3 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
73.0%
Xavier Williams run for 6 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
73.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
73.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
73.5%
Xavier Williams run for 5 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
77.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:1624% → 23%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
76.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 12 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
76.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
76.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-10
76.2%
Vantrease,Kyle pass complete to Borland,Trevor for 6 yards to the BUF48 (Lawrence-Burke,Mandela) PENALTY BUF Holding (Fuzak,Jake) 10 yards from BUF42 to BUF32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 17
OWN 32
0
76.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 17
OWN 32
0
76.8%
Jackson Baltar punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:4178% → 86%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
77.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 20 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
78.1%
Xavier Williams run for 6 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
78.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
78.5%
Xavier Williams run for 12 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
78.5%
Xavier Williams run for 5 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
78.5%
Xavier Williams run for 1 yd to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+8
78.2%
Dustin Crum run for 8 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.5%
Xavier Williams run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.2%
Dustin Crum run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 5:1615% → 22%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
84.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
84.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+18
85.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 18 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
84.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
84.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Borland for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 7
50
+12
84.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Bernard Porter for 12 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
83.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
83.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
83.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the KntSt 29Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+1
83.7%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
86.9%
Vantrease,Kyle pass incomplete to Williams,Quian, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Miller,Montre) 15 yards from KSU28 to KSU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
86.8%
Kyle Vantrease run for 10 yds to the KntSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
86.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the KntSt 2Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:5180% → 93%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
80.4%
Crum,Dustin pass incomplete to Abram,Keshunn PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (King,Isaiah) 15 yards from KSU28 to KSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.2%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Keshunn AbramSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
81.1%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Dante CephasSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
80.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 11 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
81.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 14 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
83.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 8 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
83.3%
Dustin Crum run for 5 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
92.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 19 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:5311% → 10%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
89.2%
KENT ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (A.J. Musolino) to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
88.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+6
88.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the KntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
88.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
87.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+7
88.5%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the KntSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
87.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
87.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
89.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
89.9%
Alex McNulty 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 2:1988% → 94%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 11 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
87.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 11 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
88.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 2 yds to the KntSt 49 KENT ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the KntSt 41Similar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 16
OWN 41
+8
88.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 8 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
88.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 7 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
87.7%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Keshunn AbramSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+16
87.3%
Dustin Crum run for 16 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
88.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 14 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
88.1%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
88.1%
Dustin Crum run for 7 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
88.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 2 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
93.9%
Andrew Glass 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:298% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
92.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 11 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+24
92.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 24 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
91.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 17 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
82.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5886% → 85%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 15 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.3%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
86.2%
Dustin Crum run for 1 yd to the KntSt 41Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
85.7%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
85.1%
Josh Smith punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:3615% → 29%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
84.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+37
85.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 37 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
82.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 24 yds to the KntSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
82.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the KntSt 9Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
71.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jake Molinich for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:2077% → 80%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 11 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
77.4%
Dustin Crum run for 1 yd to the KntSt 37 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Aaron Hackett) to the KntSt 27Similar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 19
OWN 27
+2
76.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+45
76.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 45 yds to the KENTST 30 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Khamran Laborn) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
79.2%
Crum,Dustin pass incomplete to Cephas,Dante PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (King,Isaiah) 15 yards from BUF30 to BUF15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-7
79.2%
Dustin Crum sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 17
OPP 22
0
78.8%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Dante CephasSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+7
77.1%
Dustin Crum run for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 24
OPP 29
+46
80.4%
Andrew Glass 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:3619% → 19%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
80.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+12
81.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 12 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
80.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
79.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
79.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
78.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
79.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 24 yds to the KntSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
77.8%
Kyle Vantrease run for 7 yds to the KntSt 5Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
77.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for no gain to the KntSt 5Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+1
79.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the KntSt 4Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
81.5%
Matt Myers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:4084% → 70%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.8%
Crum,Dustin pass incomplete to Cephas,Dante PENALTY BUF Holding (Ingram,Ja'Marcus) 10 yards from KSU25 to KSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.0%
KENT ST Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.8%
Dustin Crum run for 2 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+32
83.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 32 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
85.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 6 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
85.4%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Keshunn AbramSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
84.7%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
69.7%
Andrew Glass 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:3532% → 63%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
67.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 24 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
64.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+27
64.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 27 yds to the KntSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
37.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2447% → 77%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.5%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Dante CephasSimilar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+41
44.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 41 yds to the KENTST 31 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Holding (Khamran Laborn) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
53.2%
Dustin Crum run for 20 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
53.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
76.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:3731% → 48%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
66.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
68.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 7 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
67.0%
Matt Myers run for 6 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+15
65.7%
KENT ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
63.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+14
63.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 14 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
63.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the KntSt 11Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
63.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+5
63.6%
Matt Myers run for 5 yds to the KntSt 6 BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Formation (Khamran Laborn) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
51.7%
Alex McNulty 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1860% → 64%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
59.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 19 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
62.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+24
63.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 24 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
66.8%
Crum,Dustin pass incomplete to Abram,Keshunn PENALTY KSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Gregorie,Adam) 5 yards from BUF35 to BUF40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+40
63.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 40 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:0650% → 69%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
50.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 12 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
48.4%
Vantrease,Kyle pass incomplete to Williams,Quian PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Miller,Montre) 15 yards from KSU46 to KSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
46.4%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Antoine Cook for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 39Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 18
OPP 39
0
50.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for no gain to the KntSt 39Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 18
OPP 39
+12
53.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 12 yds to the KntSt 27Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
30.6%
Alex McNulty 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3240% → 33%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
39.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+11
39.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 11 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
43.6%
Dustin Crum run for 5 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+4
38.6%
Dustin Crum run for 4 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
35.5%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
33.4%
Josh Smith punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:1475% → 91%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
25.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
25.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 6 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+16
26.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 16 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
22.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+7
24.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 7 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+17
24.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 17 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
19.2%
Kyle Vantrease run for 11 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
18.7%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Matt Harmon for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 27Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
9.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5330% → 21%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
29.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the KntSt 28Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
29.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+6
28.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-5
28.4%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Monnin,Nathan) 5 yards from KSU36 to KSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
20.9%
Josh Smith punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:3193% → 94%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
7.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+16
7.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khamran Laborn for 16 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
6.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
6.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
6.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+93.6
TD · Q3 0:43
Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-27.6
TD · Q4 14:19
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)
+23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com