2021 · Famous Idaho Potato Bowl · Dec 21, 2021 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:29 · Andrew Glass 33 Yard Field Goal Missed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:39: Levi Williams run for 50 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +11.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 0:24: Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +12.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:28: Levi Williams run for 27 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +16.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:42: Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +12.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:49: Levi Williams run for 80 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +11.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 11:25KENT 4th & 6 at WYO 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.6%40% to convertField goal40.5%−<0.149% to makePunt40.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:43WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.1%average punt
- Q2 14:49WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snapGo for it51.7%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.3%average punt
- Q2 10:08WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it45.8%−0.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.7%average punt
- Q2 7:29KENT 4th & 3 at WYO 23, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snapGo for it54.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call54.6%−0.370% to makePunt52.1%−2.8average punt
- Q2 4:04KENT 4th & 3 at WYO 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.5%51% to convertField goal46.9%−0.674% to makePunt41.5%−6.0average punt
- Q2 0:00WYO 4th & 22 at WYO 26, down 3Numbers favored punt by 4.2 ptsWent for it · 50.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.6%−4.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt47.8%average punt
- Q3 7:16KENT 4th & 13 at midfield, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.3%−1.621% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.9%average punt
- Q4 13:01KENT 4th & 2 at WYO 12, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snapGo for it16.1%56% to convertField goalTheir call15.1%−1.086% to makePunt9.6%−6.5average punt
- Q4 7:29WYO 4th & 1 at KENT 27, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snapGo for it91.7%71% to convertField goalTheir call90.3%−1.562% to makePunt87.0%−4.7average punt
- Q4 4:03KENT 4th & 4 at WYO 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%48% to convertField goal4.0%−0.438% to makePunt3.3%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 7:06WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.0%97% to makeGo for two62.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:52KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.0%97% to makeGo for two40.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:54KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.2%97% to makeGo for two45.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:39WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.1%97% to makeGo for two54.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:42WYO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.1%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:24KENT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.9%97% to makeGo for two47.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 10:28WYO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:42WYO Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:49WYO Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:13KENT Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.1%97% to makeGo for two9.8%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 3:11WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
- Q4 2:54KENT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.6%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1DOWNS13 plays · 37 yds · 3:1541% → 41%
WYODrive 2TD10 plays · 67 yds · 4:0459% → 63%
KENTDrive 3TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
58.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 80 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4759% → 58%
KENTDrive 5TD12 plays · 71 yds · 3:3641% → 49%
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+22
57.5%
Dustin Crum run for 7 yds to the WYOMING 47 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
56.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
56.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 1 yd to the Wyom 17Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
56.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 5 yds to the Wyom 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4153% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7FG7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1948% → 50%
Q2 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-6
49.9%
Dustin Crum sacked by Cole Godbout and Chad Muma for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4248% → 46%
KENTDrive 9MISSED FG9 plays · 42 yds · 2:3652% → 55%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
47.8%
WYOMING Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the KntSt 44Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 1
OWN 44
+21
47.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 21 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
46.8%
Dustin Crum sacked by Garrett Crall for a loss of 10 yards to the Wyom 45Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+15
47.2%
WYOMING Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10TD4 plays · 77 yds · 1:4145% → 56%
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
44.9%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11DOWNS6 plays · 49 yds · 1:2647% → 48%
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
50.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 6 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12TD6 plays · 74 yds · 2:1354% → 66%
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
53.3%
WYOMING Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Wyom 21Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+13
53.1%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 13 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+15
53.9%
Levi Williams pass complete to Parker Christensen for 15 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+42
66.3%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 42 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:1137% → 49%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
63.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 22 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-15
51.0%
KENT ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the KntSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14DOWNS6 plays · -7 yds · 0:1255% → 52%
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-17
54.9%
Levi Williams sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 17 yards to the Wyom 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15TD9 plays · 73 yds · 4:1753% → 71%
Q3 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+20
53.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 20 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 2:5934% → 32%
WYODrive 17TD11 plays · 76 yds · 4:2468% → 86%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
68.2%
KENT ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
69.7%
KENT ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
71.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 4 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
73.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 8 yds to the KntSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18MISSED FG16 plays · 77 yds · 4:2316% → 14%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
84.2%
KENT ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the KntSt 6Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 15
OWN 6
-3
84.5%
Dustin Crum sacked by Isaac White for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 3Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
86.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+25
86.4%
Bryan Bradford run for 10 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+23
84.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 23 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:175% → 14%
WYODrive 21FG8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2691% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 32 yds · 3:125% → 3%
WYODrive 23TD3 plays · 62 yds · 0:4498% → 100%
Q4 3:28
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
98.1%
KENT ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24TD3 plays · 73 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
97.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Devontez Walker for 73 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25END OF GAME10 plays · 13 yds · 2:4898% → 99%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
98.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the KntSt 41 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the KntSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:28
Levi Williams run for 27 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
+16
TD · Q2 0:24
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 2:42
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
+12.3