Duke

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2081st
  Defense+0.1527th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.0%79th
  Defense43.8%27th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3381st
  Defense+1.3313th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0644th
  Defense+0.0460th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3381st
  Defense+0.3312th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.5%81st
  Defense48.3%39th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.8%73rd
  Defense34.4%9th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8027th
  Defense2.6286th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.0%16th
  Defense23.3%93rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.4%51st
  Defense17.2%73rd

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Duke allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ELON
2. L
   ILL
3. L
   TULN
4. W
   NCSU
5. W
   SYR
6. W
   CAL
7. L
   GT
8. W
   CLEM
9. L
   CONN
10. L
    UVA
11. W
    UNC
12. W
    WAKE
13. W
    UVA
14. W
    ASU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Duke.

Players, 2025

1. Darian MensahQB459 plays · +0.313 pts/play · 1st of 231 QBs
   2.69WAR1.71 to 3.47
2. Nate SheppardRB210 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 18th of 365 RBs
   0.40WAR0.28 to 0.51
3. Cooper BarkateWR100 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 38th of 451 WRs
   0.25WAR0.06 to 0.47
4. Que'Sean BrownWR74 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 68th of 451 WRs
   0.20WAR0.06 to 0.36
5. Anderson CastleRB117 plays · +0.089 pts/play · 114th of 365 RBs
   0.20WAR0.14 to 0.26
6. Jeremiah HasleyTE43 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 5th of 213 TEs
   0.19WAR0.10 to 0.28
7. Todd PelinoPK18 plays · +0.299 pts/play · 32nd of 112 kickers
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.14
8. Jaquez MooreRB42 plays · +0.077 pts/play · 269th of 365 RBs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Duke's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  66966958th of 134Roster talent: 669, 58th of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19619650th of 134Recruiting: 196, 50th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  18%18%102nd of 132Returning production: 18%, 102nd of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.6+6.644th of 134SP+ rating: +6.6, 44th of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Duke's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UNCQ4 2:20 4th & 3 at UNC 27, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−7.9 pts
2. vs ASUQ4 2:51 4th & 8 at ASU 8, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.4 pts
3. vs WAKEQ4 10:08 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, up 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.0 pts
4. vs WAKEQ4 0:23 4th & 10 at WAKE 11, up 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs ASUQ3 10:06 4th & 3 at DUKE 46, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. vs UVAQ1 6:11 4th & 1 at DUKE 25, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at UVAQ4 1:44 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at TULNQ4 3:56 4th & 13 at TULN 34, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

48th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Duke's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ELON
2. L

   ILL
3. L

   TULN
4. W

   NCSU
5. W

   SYR
6. W

   CAL
7. L

   GT
8. W

   CLEM
9. L

   CONN
10. L

    UVA
11. W

    UNC
12. W

    WAKE
13. W

    UVA
14. W

    ASU

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Duke's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.27
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.14
• Timeouts+0.28
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.37

Game by game

• ELONW 45-17 vs ELON98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• ILLL 19-45 vs ILL42% → 0%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −46, Clock −1
• TULNL 27-34 at TULN53% → 2%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −43
• NCSUW 45-33 vs NCSU55% → 98%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• SYRW 38-3 at SYR63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +42, Clock +2
• CALW 45-21 at CAL62% → 100%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +43, Clock +2
• GTL 18-27 vs GT52% → 4%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −50, Clock −3
• CLEMW 46-45 at CLEM33% → 82%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +39, Clock +4
• CONNL 34-37 at CONN68% → 4%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −2
• UVAL 17-34 vs UVA66% → 1%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −65: Scoreboard −60, Clock −3
• UNCW 32-25 at UNC69% → 97%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• WAKEW 49-32 vs WAKE57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +1
• UVAW 27-20 at UVA41% → 34%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −7: Timeouts +24, Clock −16
• ASUW 42-39 vs ASU55% → 96%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Duke's side.

Closest call

DUKE 46-45 CLEM (2025) - Duke dropped to a 2.6% win probability before pulling it out.