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DUKE

Duke 28 at Charlotte 31

CLT
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2021 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 22 yds to the Charl 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:54: Chris Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +14.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:07: Mataeo Durant run for 59 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +29.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:59: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +42.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:44: Mataeo Durant run for 53 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +58.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:33: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +55.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:29DUKE 4th & 11 at CLT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:49DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:20CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:13DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:22CLT 4th & 5 at DUKE 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:58CLT 4th & 15 at CLT 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:18CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:54CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:41DUKE 4th & 5 at CLT 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:40CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:13DUKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−6.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:50CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:13DUKE 4th & 13 at CLT 36, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:51CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:22DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:57DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:54CLT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:07DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:59CLT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:44DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:33CLT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:2567% → 65%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
33.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
33.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
33.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
33.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
33.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
33.3%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 46Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-3
33.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jordan Waters for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 49Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
34.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:3835% → 39%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
34.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 10 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
34.8%
Shadrick Byrd run for 7 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-1
35.0%
Chavon McEachern run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 36Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
34.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 8 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
38.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 56 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0262% → 61%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.9%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
37.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
37.7%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 11 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
37.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
37.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 5 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
38.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
39.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:2940% → 42%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
39.7%
Calvin Camp run for no gain to the Charl 13Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
39.6%
Calvin Camp run for 8 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+7
39.5%
Chris Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Charl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
39.8%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (T.J. Moore) to the Charl 23Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+5
39.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 5 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
39.7%
Calvin Camp run for 3 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
39.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+46
41.7%
Bailey Rice punt for 46 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0758% → 56%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
42.3%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
42.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+10
42.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
41.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-6
41.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 33 Gunnar Holmberg fumbled, recovered by Duke Gunnar HolmbergSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 16
OWN 33
0
42.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
44.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 5:5144% → 51%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
44.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 18 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
46.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for 6 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
46.3%
Chris Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
45.7%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
46.4%
Chavon McEachern run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+23
46.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Carriere for 23 yds Ryan Carriere fumbled, recovered by Charl Ryan Carriere for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
46.5%
Chavon McEachern run for 2 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
46.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for 3 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
46.0%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
50.6%
Jonathan Cruz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0050% → 58%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
49.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 10 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
49.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jarett Garner for 14 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
48.7%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
48.4%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Markees Watts for 0 yards to the Charl 43Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+43
42.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jordan Waters for 43 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1744% → 44%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
44.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 11 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
44.5%
Calvin Camp run for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 14
OWN 29
-1
43.9%
Calvin Camp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 28Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
43.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
44.4%
Bailey Rice punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:0155% → 66%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
45.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+21
43.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 21 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
42.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+10
42.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 10 yds to the Charl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
42.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Charl 12Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
42.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Charl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
42.2%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Charl 4Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
43.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 5Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3438% → 36%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
37.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 4 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
37.9%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 19Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
37.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 8 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
37.0%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 25Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
36.0%
Bailey Rice punt for 43 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:1864% → 66%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
35.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
36.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+5
34.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
34.4%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Luke Martin and Bryan Wallace for 0 yards to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+5
36.1%
#12 G.Holmberg pass to the right incomplete intended for #21 M.Durant broken up by #7 K.Wardlow at the DUK38. PENALTY CLT Offsides on #7 K.Wardlow enforced 5 yards from the DUK38 to the DUK43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+9
35.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+30
34.1%
Jordan Waters run for 30 yds to the Charl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0638% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.1%
Chavon McEachern run for 6 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
39.8%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
37.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Chavon McEachern for 11 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
40.4%
#3 C.Reynolds pass to the left incomplete dropped by #4 C.Dollar thrown to the CLT48. PENALTY CLT Holding enforced 10 yards from the CLT42 to the CLT32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+5
38.0%
Chris Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
38.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+17
37.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 17 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
41.6%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 49Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-5
39.3%
Calvin Camp run for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+15
38.5%
Victor Tucker run for 15 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+41
41.9%
run for 41 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.2%
Shadrick Byrd run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.5%
Chris Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:3748% → 45%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
52.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 9 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+23
50.7%
Jordan Waters run for 23 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
48.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 16 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
47.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
47.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+23
49.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 23 yds to the Charl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
47.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Charl 4Similar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
55.5%
#3 C.Reynolds pass to the right complete for 16 yards to #1 V.Tucker caught at the CLT31 and advanced to the CLT36 (#33 L.Johnson), out of bounds. PENALTY CLT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on #57 A.Gist enforced 5 yards from the CLT20 to the CLT15 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1855% → 54%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
55.3%
Keith Pearson run for 4 yds to the Charl 19Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
55.0%
Shadrick Byrd run for 7 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-2
54.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 24Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
53.8%
Bailey Rice punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:1346% → 45%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
53.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Cole Finney for 20 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
50.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
50.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
51.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
54.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0159% → 55%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
59.0%
Chavon McEachern run for no gain to the Charl 39Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
58.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
56.8%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
55.4%
Bailey Rice punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2742% → 38%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
57.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 14 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
55.6%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+5
58.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 19
OWN 32
0
61.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Victor Tucker at the Charl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:1959% → 59%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.8%
Chavon McEachern run for 3 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
58.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
57.7%
Chris Reynolds run for 12 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
62.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
60.8%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.2%
Chris Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
58.8%
Bailey Rice punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q4 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+59
29.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 59 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:1737% → 34%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.5%
Chavon McEachern run for 3 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
36.8%
Chavon McEachern run for 8 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.6%
Chavon McEachern run for no gain to the Charl 36Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
37.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for 2 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
36.6%
Chris Reynolds run for no gain to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
33.8%
Bailey Rice punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:3771% → 72%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+38
29.4%
Jordan Moore run for 38 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
25.0%
QB Keeper #8 J.Moore rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the CLT30, End of Play. PENALTY DUK Holding on #70 J.Gelotte enforced 10 yards from the CLT33 to the CLT43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+5
25.6%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
25.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for no gain to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+2
27.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Charl 36Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 13
OPP 36
0
27.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Victor Tucker at the Charl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 4:1435% → 87%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
34.8%
Calvin Camp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 7Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+29
34.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 29 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
37.0%
Calvin Camp run for 2 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
37.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 4 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+10
38.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 10 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+36
41.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 36 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
44.0%
Chris Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
86.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:1529% → 90%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.8%
DUKE Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
71.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
68.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
68.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
68.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+53
10.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 53 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1127% → 94%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 9 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
31.3%
Chris Reynolds sacked for 0 yards to the Charl 29Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
26.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 19 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+34
32.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 34 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
40.6%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
38.7%
Chris Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
94.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:2721% → 16%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
80.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 16 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-15
76.0%
DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (Jake Marwede) to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 21
OWN 40
-5
81.0%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 26
OWN 35
+22
83.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 22 yds to the Charl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:44
Mataeo Durant run for 53 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
-58
TD · Q4 0:33
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+55.3
TD · Q4 2:59
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+42.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com