DUKE
Duke 45 at California 21
CAL2025 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2025 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
CAL · Drive 1TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
37.3%
0.0
Q1 14:55
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 24
39.0%
+1.7
Q1 14:20
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 12 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST down
39.2%
+0.3
Q1 13:59
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 2 yds to the CAL 38
41.0%
+1.8
Q1 13:30
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the CAL 44
41.4%
+0.4
Q1 12:57
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 3 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST down
41.6%
+0.2
Q1 12:30
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 24 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST down
41.9%
+0.2
Q1 12:04
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 30
43.2%
+1.3
Q1 11:29
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 35
43.2%
0.0
Q1 11:05
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 19 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST down
43.2%
0.0
Q1 10:42
Duke Penalty, Defensive Offside (Semaj Turner) to the DUKE 11
43.2%
0.0
Q1 10:28
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the DUKE 5 for a 1ST down
43.2%
0.0
Q1 9:55
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 6
43.2%
0.0
Q1 9:11
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 6 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
57.3%
+14.1
Q1 9:11
Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
40.9%
-16.4
DUKE · Drive 2PUNT · 6 plays · -9 yds
Q1 9:11
Chase Meyer kickoff for 50 yds , Jayden Moore return for 24 yds to the DUKE 24
57.2%
+16.3
Q1 9:00
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 3 yds to the DUKE 27 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the DUKE 17
50.7%
-6.5
Q1 8:37
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper Barkate
50.7%
0.0
Q1 8:31
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 22
50.7%
0.0
Q1 8:10
Darian Mensah sacked by Jayden Wayne for a loss of 7 yards to the DUKE 15
51.1%
+0.4
Q1 7:27
Kade Reynoldson punt for 57 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 17 yds to the CAL 45
51.1%
0.0
CAL · Drive 3TD · 6 plays · 55 yds
Q1 7:20
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 29 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST down
56.6%
+5.4
Q1 6:38
California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Spasojevic-Moko) to the DUKE 36
57.1%
+0.5
Q1 6:27
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete
57.2%
+0.1
Q1 6:18
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 22 yds to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Bradley Gompers) to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST down
57.2%
0.0
Q1 5:57
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the DUKE 5
57.2%
0.0
Q1 5:20
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
70.0%
+12.7
DUKE · Drive 4TD · 9 plays · 77 yds
Q1 5:20
Chase Meyer kickoff for 64 yds , Sahmir Hagans return for 22 yds to the DUKE 23
69.7%
-0.3
Q1 5:05
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 15 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down
68.2%
-1.5
Q1 5:05
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 8 yds to the DUKE 31
68.2%
0.0
Q1 4:30
Nate Sheppard run for 8 yds to the CAL 46
68.2%
-0.1
Q1 4:09
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Andrel Anthony
67.4%
-0.7
Q1 4:02
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jake Taylor for 16 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST down
67.4%
0.0
Q1 3:30
Nate Sheppard run for no gain to the CAL 30
66.3%
-1.2
Q1 2:55
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 18 yds to the CAL 12 for a 1ST down
66.3%
0.0
Q1 2:38
Nate Sheppard run for 12 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
48.7%
-17.6
CAL · Drive 5TD · 14 plays · 80 yds
Q1 2:38
Todd Pelino kickoff for 63 yds , Jacob De Jesus return for 18 yds to the CAL 20 Jacob De Jesus fumbled, recovered by CAL Jacob De Jesus
51.3%
+2.6
Q1 2:30
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the CAL 27
54.8%
+3.4
Q1 1:55
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST down
55.0%
+0.3
Q1 1:17
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jaiven Plummer
55.0%
0.0
Q1 1:12
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 36
55.0%
0.0
Q1 0:35
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 10 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST down
57.2%
+2.2
Q2 14:55
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 48
57.3%
+0.1
Q2 14:35
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 30 yds to the DUKE 22 for a 1ST down
57.8%
+0.4
Q2 13:47
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell
58.0%
+0.2
Q2 13:43
Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe pass incomplete to Grizzell, Trond, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Robinson, Kimari) 11 yards to the DUKE11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.
58.0%
0.0
Q2 13:35
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for 1 yd to the DUKE 10
58.0%
0.0
Q2 12:55
Timeout California, clock 12:55
58.2%
+0.3
Q2 12:47
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the DUKE 4
58.2%
0.0
Q2 12:17
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
71.1%
+12.9
DUKE · Drive 6TD · 12 plays · 58 yds
Q2 12:17
Chase Meyer kickoff for 62 yds , Sahmir Hagans return for 39 yds to the DUKE 42
71.1%
-0.1
Q2 12:05
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 40
66.4%
-4.7
Q2 11:30
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 1 yd to the DUKE 41
66.1%
-0.3
Q2 10:55
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 15 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST down
67.4%
+1.3
Q2 10:35
Anderson Castle run for 8 yds to the CAL 36
66.9%
-0.5
Q2 10:18
Anderson Castle run for 7 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST down
66.3%
-0.6
Q2 9:55
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 15 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST down
66.7%
+0.4
Q2 9:36
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the CAL 13
66.7%
0.0
Q2 8:58
Mensah, Darian pass incomplete to King, Landen, PENALTY CAL pass interference 6 yards to the CAL7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.
66.7%
0.0
Q2 8:53
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the CAL 6
66.7%
0.0
Q2 8:10
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the CAL 2
67.2%
+0.5
Q2 7:47
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
53.5%
-13.6
CAL · Drive 7INT · 3 plays · 29 yds
Q2 7:47
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
55.9%
+2.4
Q2 7:38
Kendrick Raphael run for 29 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down
58.3%
+2.4
Q2 6:59
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Andrew Pellicciotta return for 34 yds to the DUKE 12 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landan Callahan) to the DUKE 38
60.9%
+2.6
DUKE · Drive 8TD · 3 plays · 62 yds
Q2 6:50
Darian Mensah pass complete to Landen King for 33 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST down
55.3%
-5.6
Q2 6:30
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the CAL 26
53.5%
-1.8
Q2 5:50
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
33.8%
-19.7
CAL · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · -12 yds
Q2 5:50
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
36.4%
+2.6
Q2 5:45
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 23
42.4%
+6.0
Q2 5:16
Duke Penalty, Defensive Offside (Wesley Williams) to the CAL 28
42.4%
0.0
Q2 5:05
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Elliott Schaper and Wesley Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 20
43.0%
+0.6
Q2 4:15
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. and Elliott Schaper for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 13
43.4%
+0.3
Q2 3:39
Michael Kern punt for 25 yds, downed at the CAL 38
43.1%
-0.3
DUKE · Drive 10TD · 6 plays · 38 yds
Q2 3:30
Jaquez Moore run for 11 yds to the CAL 27 for a 1ST down
34.9%
-8.2
Q2 3:13
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper Barkate
34.9%
0.0
Q2 3:08
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the CAL 26
34.9%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 23 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST down
34.7%
-0.1
Q2 1:53
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the CAL 1
34.7%
0.0
Q2 1:10
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
19.3%
-15.5
CAL · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · -15 yds
Q2 1:10
Todd Pelino kickoff for 40 yds fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 1
20.5%
+1.2
Q2 1:06
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Mason Mini
25.8%
+5.3
Q2 1:01
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Kendrick Raphael
25.8%
0.0
Q2 0:57
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Elliott Schaper for a loss of 15 yards to the CAL 10
25.8%
0.0
Q2 0:56
Timeout Duke, clock 00:56
24.9%
-0.8
Q2 0:47
Michael Kern punt for 51 yds, downed at the DUKE 39
24.9%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 12END OF HALF · 10 plays · 53 yds
Q2 0:40
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 6 yds to the DUKE 45
19.5%
-5.4
Q2 0:20
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 15 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST down
19.5%
-0.1
Q2 0:15
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 22 yds to the CAL 18 for a 1ST down
19.2%
-0.3
Q2 0:13
Timeout Duke, clock 00:13
19.2%
0.0
Q2 0:08
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Cooper Barkate
19.2%
0.0
Q2 0:08
Timeout California, clock 00:08
19.2%
0.0
Q2 0:04
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the CAL 13
19.2%
0.0
Q2 0:02
Timeout Duke, clock 00:02
19.3%
+0.1
Q2 0:02
California Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brent Austin) to the CAL 8 for a 1ST down
19.3%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Todd Pelino 25 yd FG GOOD
16.2%
-3.1
DUKE · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q3 15:00
Chase Meyer kickoff for 45 yds , Jayden Moore return for 15 yds to the DUKE 35
18.4%
+2.2
Q3 14:50
Nate Sheppard run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 34
18.4%
0.0
Q3 14:15
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the DUKE 37
18.0%
-0.3
Q3 13:30
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Que'Sean Brown
17.6%
-0.4
Q3 13:21
Kade Reynoldson punt for 46 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 35 California Penalty, False Start (7 Yards) to the CAL 8
17.6%
0.0
CAL · Drive 14INT · 7 plays · 38 yds
Q3 13:16
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 12
17.1%
-0.5
Q3 12:46
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the CAL 20 for a 1ST down
17.2%
0.0
Q3 12:20
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 19
17.2%
0.0
Q3 11:29
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell
16.2%
-0.9
Q3 11:17
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 28 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST down
16.2%
0.0
Q3 10:42
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 46
17.2%
+1.0
Q3 10:07
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Chandler Rivers return for no gain to the DUKE 41
17.2%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 15PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q3 10:02
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for no gain to the DUKE 41
17.1%
-0.1
Q3 9:23
Nate Sheppard run for 2 yds to the DUKE 43
17.1%
0.0
Q3 8:38
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans
17.1%
0.0
Q3 8:31
Kade Reynoldson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the CAL 15
17.3%
+0.2
CAL · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · -6 yds
Q3 8:25
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 17
16.4%
-0.9
Q3 7:50
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Aaron Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 12
16.4%
0.0
Q3 7:35
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Wesley Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 9
16.4%
0.0
Q3 6:52
Michael Kern punt for 44 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
16.1%
-0.3
DUKE · Drive 17PUNT · 4 plays · -6 yds
Q3 6:47
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the CAL 49
16.1%
0.0
Q3 6:20
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the CAL 45
16.1%
0.0
Q3 5:35
Darian Mensah sacked by Luke Ferrelli for a loss of 11 yards to the DUKE 44
15.8%
-0.3
Q3 4:56
Kade Reynoldson punt for 56 yds for a touchback
15.2%
-0.6
CAL · Drive 18PUNT · 8 plays · 16 yds
Q3 4:50
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the CAL 25
15.8%
+0.5
Q3 4:15
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the CAL 27
15.8%
0.0
Q3 3:40
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Mason Mini for 4 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST down
15.8%
0.0
Q3 3:18
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the CAL 32
15.2%
-0.5
Q3 3:00
Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe pass complete to Raphael, Kendrick for 7 yards to the CAL39, PENALTY CAL holding (Bell, Leon) 10 yards to the CAL22, NO PLAY.
15.2%
0.0
Q3 2:37
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.
14.9%
-0.3
Q3 2:30
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 14 yds to the CAL 36
14.9%
0.0
Q3 1:40
Michael Kern punt for 60 yds, downed at the DUKE 4
15.8%
+0.8
DUKE · Drive 19PUNT · 8 plays · 40 yds
Q3 1:35
Nate Sheppard run for 3 yds to the DUKE 7
14.8%
-1.0
Q3 0:59
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 8 yds to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST down
14.8%
0.0
Q3 0:36
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 11 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST down
14.8%
0.0
Q4 14:53
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 15 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST down
14.8%
0.0
Q4 14:37
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Jake Taylor
12.8%
-2.0
Q4 14:32
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 3 yds to the DUKE 44
12.8%
0.0
Q4 13:54
Darian Mensah pass incomplete
12.8%
0.0
Q4 13:44
Kade Reynoldson punt for 47 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 7 yds to the CAL 16
13.0%
+0.2
CAL · Drive 20PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q4 13:38
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele run for no gain to the CAL 16
13.2%
+0.2
Q4 13:06
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass incomplete to Jacob De Jesus
13.2%
0.0
Q4 12:58
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 6 yds to the CAL 22
13.2%
0.0
Q4 12:21
Michael Kern punt for 37 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 4 yds to the DUKE 45
13.1%
-0.1
DUKE · Drive 21TD · 6 plays · 55 yds
Q4 12:15
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the DUKE 46
12.1%
-1.0
Q4 11:35
Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the CAL 46
12.0%
-0.1
Q4 10:40
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the CAL 45 for a 1ST down
12.0%
0.0
Q4 9:40
Jaquez Moore run for 32 yds to the CAL 13 for a 1ST down
11.6%
-0.5
Q4 9:12
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the CAL 10
11.3%
-0.2
Q4 8:22
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
5.9%
-5.5
CAL · Drive 22INT · 5 plays · 23 yds
Q4 8:22
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
5.8%
0.0
Q4 8:15
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 22
4.9%
-1.0
Q4 7:47
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 13 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST down
4.9%
0.0
Q4 7:20
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 13 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST down
5.3%
+0.4
Q4 6:45
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Elliott Schaper return for 5 yds to the DUKE 49
5.3%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 23TD · 2 plays · 51 yds
Q4 6:40
Nate Sheppard run for 5 yds to the CAL 46
5.8%
+0.6
Q4 5:50
Nate Sheppard run for 46 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
2.3%
-3.5
CAL · Drive 24INT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q4 5:50
Todd Pelino kickoff for 63 yds , Jacob De Jesus return for 19 yds to the CAL 21
2.3%
0.0
Q4 5:40
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the CAL 25
3.5%
+1.1
Q4 5:15
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 21
3.5%
0.0
Q4 4:39
Devin Brown pass intercepted Moussa Kane return for no gain to the CAL 38
3.5%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 25END OF GAME · 7 plays · 21 yds
Q4 4:33
Travis Bates run for 1 yd to the CAL 37
2.3%
-1.2
Q4 3:45
Travis Bates run for 9 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST down
2.3%
0.0
Q4 3:00
Travis Bates run for 1 yd to the CAL 27
2.3%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Travis Bates run for 2 yds to the CAL 25
2.3%
0.0
Q4 1:55
Henry Belin IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 26
2.2%
-0.1
Q4 1:07
Henry Belin IV run for 11 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST down
2.2%
0.0
Q4 0:35
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 17
2.2%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:50
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-19.7
TD · Q1 2:38
Nate Sheppard run for 12 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-17.6
KEY PLAY · Q1 9:11
Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
-16.4