DUKE
Duke 38 at Syracuse 3
SYR2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · JMA Wireless Dome
Speed4x
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey play
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SYR · Drive 1INT · 6 plays · 53 yds
Q1 14:54
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds , Jaden Hart return for 11 yds to the SYR 11
41.3%
0.0
Q1 14:48
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 18 yds to the SYR 29 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Chandler Rivers) to the SYR 44 for a 1ST down
43.0%
+1.7
Q1 14:23
Will Nixon run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
46.0%
+3.0
Q1 14:04
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Dan Villari
46.0%
0.0
Q1 13:50
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 14 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST down
45.7%
-0.2
Q1 13:32
Rickie Collins pass intercepted Caleb Weaver return for 40 yds to the SYR 45
47.3%
+1.6
DUKE · Drive 2FG · 9 plays · 40 yds
Q1 13:11
(13:24) PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference 15 yards from SYRA45 to DUKE40. NO PLAY.
38.3%
-9.1
Q1 12:43
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 25 yds to the SYR 35 for a 1ST down
39.6%
+1.3
Q1 12:19
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 8 yds to the SYR 27
38.1%
-1.5
Q1 12:02
Nate Sheppard run for 17 yds to the SYR 10 for a 1ST down
38.1%
0.0
Q1 11:39
Nate Sheppard run for 2 yds to the SYR 8
38.1%
0.0
Q1 11:05
(11:08) PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference 15 yards from SYRA08 to SYRA23. NO PLAY.
38.1%
0.0
Q1 10:54
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the SYR 22
38.1%
0.0
Q1 10:07
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 17 yds to the SYR 5
38.1%
0.0
Q1 9:42
Todd Pelino 22 yd FG GOOD
34.5%
-3.6
SYR · Drive 3FG · 12 plays · 64 yds
Q1 9:42
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
35.7%
+1.2
Q1 9:31
Yasin Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SYR 22
40.5%
+4.7
Q1 8:43
Rickie Collins pass complete to Yasin Willis for 2 yds to the SYR 24
39.9%
-0.6
Q1 7:52
Rickie Collins pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 18 yds to the SYR 42 for a 1ST down
40.3%
+0.4
Q1 7:33
Will Nixon run for 3 yds to the SYR 45
42.5%
+2.2
Q1 7:04
Rickie Collins pass complete to Dan Villari for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
42.5%
0.0
Q1 6:36
Yasin Willis run for 9 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST down
42.5%
0.0
Q1 5:58
Yasin Willis run for 35 yds to the DUKE 6 for a 1ST down
42.4%
-0.2
Q1 5:34
Yasin Willis run for 2 yds to the DUKE 4
42.4%
0.0
Q1 4:42
Rickie Collins sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the DUKE 11
42.6%
+0.3
Q1 4:13
Rickie Collins pass incomplete
42.4%
-0.2
Q1 4:10
Tripp Woody 29 yd FG GOOD
46.9%
+4.5
DUKE · Drive 4TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q1 4:10
Tripp Woody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
45.1%
-1.8
Q1 3:54
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 5 yds to the DUKE 30
40.9%
-4.1
Q1 3:39
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans
40.9%
0.0
Q1 3:14
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 21 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST down
40.9%
0.0
Q1 3:12
Nate Sheppard run for 49 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
24.2%
-16.7
SYR · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q1 3:12
Jack Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 40
28.1%
+3.9
Q1 3:07
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds , Jaden Hart return for 13 yds to the SYR 13
25.4%
+1.3
Q1 3:04
Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) to the SYR 13
28.1%
+2.7
Q1 3:04
Will Nixon run for 2 yds to the SYR 15
28.1%
0.0
Q1 3:04
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Dan Villari
28.1%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · 11 yds
Q1 3:12
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 40
24.2%
-3.9
Q1 3:12
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST down
24.2%
0.0
Q1 3:12
Duke Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Chandler Rivers) to the DUKE 43
24.2%
0.0
Q1 3:12
Darian Mensah pass incomplete
24.2%
0.0
Q1 3:12
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 8 yds to the SYR 49
24.2%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Kade Reynoldson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Davien Kerr at the SYR 17
24.4%
-3.7
SYR · Drive 7FUMBLE · 8 plays · 44 yds
Q2 15:00
Yasin Willis run for 9 yds to the SYR 26
28.3%
+3.9
Q2 15:00
Will Nixon run for 1 yd to the SYR 27 for a 1ST down
28.3%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Will Nixon run for 2 yds to the SYR 29
28.3%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 8 yds to the SYR 37 for a 1ST down
28.3%
0.0
Q2 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun Collins,Rickie pass incomplete short right to Ross-Simmons,Justus thrown to SYRA44 PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference 15 yards from SYRA37 to DUKE48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
29.6%
+1.3
Q2 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun Collins,Rickie pass incomplete short left to Nixon,Will thrown to DUKE46 PENALTY SYRA Holding 10 yards from DUKE48 to SYRA42. NO PLAY.
31.3%
+1.7
Q2 15:00
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Johntay Cook
30.2%
-1.1
Q2 12:49
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 19 yds Johntay Cook fumbled, recovered by DUKE Bradley Gompers
30.2%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 8TD · 3 plays · 61 yds
Q2 12:49
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 18 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST down
24.1%
-6.0
Q2 12:49
Nate Sheppard run for 9 yds to the SYR 34
24.0%
-0.1
Q2 12:01
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 34 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
14.8%
-9.2
SYR · Drive 9PUNT · 10 plays · -8 yds
Q2 12:01
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
15.6%
+0.8
Q2 12:01
Yasin Willis run for 5 yds to the SYR 30
15.4%
-0.2
Q2 12:01
Yasin Willis run for no gain to the SYR 30
15.4%
0.0
Q2 12:01
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 4 yds to the SYR 34
15.4%
0.0
Q2 12:01
Yasin Willis run for 2 yds to the SYR 36 for a 1ST down
16.3%
+0.9
Q2 12:01
No Huddle-Shotgun Collins,Rickie pass complete short middle to Nixon,Will caught at SYRA40, for 4 yards to the SYRA40 (Freeman,Tre; Mergott,Luke) PENALTY SYRA Pass Interference 15 yards from SYRA36 to SYRA21. NO PLAY.
16.3%
0.0
Q2 12:01
Rickie Collins run for a loss of 10 yards to the SYR 11 Rickie Collins fumbled, recovered by DUKE Rickie Collins
15.4%
-0.9
Q2 12:01
Rickie Collins pass incomplete
15.4%
0.0
Q2 12:01
Will Nixon run for 6 yds to the SYR 17
15.4%
0.0
Q2 7:19
Jack Stonehouse punt for 51 yds
14.5%
-0.9
DUKE · Drive 10TD · 14 plays · 68 yds
Q2 7:19
Darian Mensah pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 5 yds to the DUKE 37
14.0%
-0.5
Q2 7:19
Darian Mensah run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 35
13.9%
0.0
Q2 7:19
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 5 yds to the DUKE 40
13.9%
0.0
Q2 7:19
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down
13.7%
-0.2
Q2 7:19
PENALTY SYRA Pass Interference 15 yards from DUKE44 to SYRA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
13.5%
-0.2
Q2 7:19
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the SYR 38
13.3%
-0.2
Q2 7:19
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the SYR 33
13.3%
0.0
Q2 7:19
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the SYR 33
13.3%
0.0
Q2 7:19
Darian Mensah run for 3 yds to the SYR 30 for a 1ST down
13.7%
+0.4
Q2 7:19
Nate Sheppard run for 1 yd to the SYR 29
13.3%
-0.4
Q2 7:19
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Nate Sheppard
13.3%
0.0
Q2 7:19
Darian Mensah pass complete to Anderson Castle for 17 yds to the SYR 12 for a 1ST down
13.3%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Syracuse, clock 02:00
11.9%
-1.5
Q2 1:55
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 12 yds for a TD Syracuse Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined (Todd Pelino KICK)
5.4%
-6.4
SYR · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q2 1:55
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
5.7%
+0.3
Q2 1:55
Will Nixon run for 5 yds to the SYR 30
6.8%
+1.1
Q2 1:55
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 2 yds to the SYR 32
6.8%
0.0
Q2 1:55
Rickie Collins run for 1 yd to the SYR 33
6.8%
0.0
Q2 0:51
Jack Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cooper Barkate at the DUKE 22
6.5%
-0.2
DUKE · Drive 12MISSED FG · 9 plays · 49 yds
Q2 0:51
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 2 yds to the DUKE 24
5.5%
-1.0
Q2 0:45
Timeout Syracuse, clock 00:45
5.5%
0.0
Q2 0:45
Nate Sheppard run for 32 yds to the SYR 44 for a 1ST down
5.5%
0.0
Q2 0:45
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 7 yds to the SYR 37
5.3%
-0.2
Q2 0:30
Timeout Syracuse, clock 00:30
5.5%
+0.2
Q2 0:30
Darian Mensah pass incomplete
5.5%
0.0
Q2 0:30
Darian Mensah pass complete to Nate Sheppard for 8 yds to the SYR 29 for a 1ST down
5.5%
0.0
Q2 0:30
Darian Mensah pass incomplete
5.5%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Todd Pelino 45 yd FG MISSED
5.1%
-0.4
DUKE · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · -1 yds
Q3 15:00
Tripp Woody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
6.9%
+1.8
Q3 14:55
Darian Mensah pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans
5.5%
-1.4
Q3 14:48
Nate Sheppard run for 7 yds to the DUKE 32
5.5%
0.0
Q3 14:13
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Mensah,Darian pass complete short middle to Brown,Que'Sean caught at DUKE35, for 0 yards to the DUKE32 PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference 15 yards from DUKE32 to DUKE17. NO PLAY.
4.7%
-0.7
Q3 13:35
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 7 yds to the DUKE 24
4.7%
0.0
Q3 13:09
Kade Reynoldson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Davien Kerr at the SYR 30
4.7%
0.0
SYR · Drive 14FUMBLE · 1 play · 13 yds
Q3 13:01
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 13 yds Johntay Cook fumbled, recovered by DUKE Kimari Robinson
6.5%
+1.8
DUKE · Drive 15PUNT · 4 plays · -8 yds
Q3 12:50
Darian Mensah sacked by Antoine Deslauriers for a loss of 15 yards to the DUKE 42
4.6%
-1.9
Q3 11:58
Nate Sheppard run for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 38
4.6%
0.0
Q3 11:11
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the DUKE 49
4.4%
-0.1
Q3 10:49
Kade Reynoldson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Davien Kerr at the SYR 5
4.4%
0.0
SYR · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q3 10:35
Yasin Willis run for 4 yds to the SYR 9
6.2%
+1.8
Q3 10:02
Yasin Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SYR 8
6.2%
0.0
Q3 9:18
Rickie Collins run for 2 yds to the SYR 10
6.2%
0.0
Q3 8:48
Jack Stonehouse punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the 50 yard line
5.3%
-1.0
Q3 8:48
Jack Stonehouse punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 40
5.3%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 17TD · 7 plays · 60 yds
Q3 8:39
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the DUKE 45
4.2%
-1.1
Q3 8:01
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST down
4.2%
0.0
Q3 7:42
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 48
4.2%
0.0
Q3 6:58
Anderson Castle run for 7 yds to the SYR 45
3.8%
-0.3
Q3 6:17
Darian Mensah pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 23 yds to the SYR 22 for a 1ST down
3.7%
-0.1
Q3 5:50
Nate Sheppard run for 10 yds to the SYR 12 for a 1ST down
3.7%
0.0
Q3 5:34
Nate Sheppard run for 12 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
2.5%
-1.2
SYR · Drive 18DOWNS · 11 plays · 46 yds
Q3 5:34
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2.5%
0.0
Q3 5:27
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Darrell Gill Jr.
3.9%
+1.4
Q3 5:14
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 6 yds to the SYR 31
3.9%
0.0
Q3 4:35
Rickie Collins pass complete to Yasin Willis for 5 yds to the SYR 36 for a 1ST down
3.9%
0.0
Q3 3:56
Rickie Collins pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 20 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down
4.2%
+0.3
Q3 3:28
Rickie Collins pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 13 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST down
4.2%
0.0
Q3 3:22
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Emanuel Ross
4.5%
+0.2
Q3 3:14
Yasin Willis run for 1 yd to the DUKE 30
4.5%
0.0
Q3 2:29
Rickie Collins pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 1 yd to the DUKE 29
4.4%
-0.1
Q3 1:37
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Justus Ross-Simmons
4.3%
-0.1
Q3 1:37
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Justus Ross-Simmons
4.3%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 19TD · 9 plays · 71 yds
Q3 1:31
Nate Sheppard run for 6 yds to the DUKE 35
2.4%
-1.9
Q3 0:45
Darian Mensah pass complete to Chase Tyler for 12 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST down
2.4%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Darian Mensah pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 6 yds to the SYR 47
2.4%
0.0
Q4 14:49
Nate Sheppard run for 14 yds to the SYR 33 for a 1ST down
2.1%
-0.3
Q4 13:56
Nate Sheppard run for 9 yds to the SYR 24
2.0%
0.0
Q4 13:16
Nate Sheppard run for 2 yds to the SYR 22 for a 1ST down
2.0%
0.0
Q4 12:29
Nate Sheppard run for 2 yds to the SYR 20
2.0%
0.0
Q4 11:46
Anderson Castle run for 7 yds to the SYR 13
2.0%
0.0
Q4 11:04
Anderson Castle run for 13 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
1.7%
-0.3
SYR · Drive 20PUNT · 8 plays · 9 yds
Q4 11:04
Todd Pelino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
1.7%
0.0
Q4 10:52
Rickie Collins pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 13 yds to the SYR 38 for a 1ST down
3.0%
+1.3
Q4 10:38
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Justus Ross-Simmons
3.3%
+0.2
Q4 10:23
(10:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Collins,Rickie pass complete short left to Ross-Simmons,Justus caught at SYRA46, for 0 yards to the SYRA38 PENALTY SYRA Pass Interference 15 yards from SYRA38 to SYRA23. NO PLAY.
3.3%
0.0
Q4 10:12
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Johntay Cook
3.0%
-0.2
Q4 9:53
Rickie Collins pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 11 yds to the SYR 34
3.0%
0.0
Q4 9:23
Jack Stonehouse punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 10
3.3%
+0.2
Q4 9:23
Jack Stonehouse punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 5
3.3%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 21PUNT · 8 plays · 48 yds
Q4 8:21
Travis Bates run for 4 yds to the DUKE 9
1.7%
-1.6
Q4 8:02
Travis Bates run for 1 yd to the DUKE 10
1.7%
0.0
Q4 7:36
Travis Bates run for 39 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST down
1.7%
0.0
Q4 6:57
Travis Bates run for no gain to the DUKE 49
1.7%
0.0
Q4 6:03
Henry Belin IV run for 4 yds to the SYR 47
1.7%
0.0
Q4 5:26
Travis Bates run for no gain to the SYR 47
1.7%
0.0
Q4 4:53
Timeout Syracuse, clock 04:53
1.5%
-0.2
Q4 4:47
Kade Reynoldson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Davien Kerr at the SYR 15
1.5%
0.0
SYR · Drive 22DOWNS · 16 plays · 83 yds
Q4 4:31
Rickie Collins pass complete to Dan Villari for 5 yds to the SYR 20
3.1%
+1.6
Q4 3:50
Rickie Collins pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 5 yds to the SYR 25 for a 1ST down
2.9%
-0.1
Q4 3:19
Jaden Hart run for 1 yd to the SYR 26
2.9%
0.0
Q4 3:02
Rickie Collins pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 12 yds to the SYR 38 for a 1ST down
2.9%
0.0
Q4 2:53
PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference 15 yards from SYRA38 to DUKE47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
3.1%
+0.2
Q4 2:38
Rickie Collins pass complete to Daunte Bacheyie for 6 yds to the DUKE 41
3.1%
0.0
Q4 2:17
Rickie Collins pass complete to David Clement for 18 yds to the DUKE 23 for a 1ST down
3.2%
+0.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout Syracuse, clock 02:00
3.4%
+0.1
Q4 1:43
Jaden Hart run for 4 yds to the DUKE 19
3.3%
-0.1
Q4 1:10
Rickie Collins pass complete to Jaden Hart for 4 yds to the DUKE 15
3.3%
0.0
Q4 0:51
Rickie Collins pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 7 yds to the DUKE 8 for a 1ST down
3.3%
0.0
Q4 0:39
Jaden Hart run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 9
3.3%
0.0
Q4 0:39
Timeout Syracuse, clock 00:39
3.2%
0.0
Q4 0:25
Rickie Collins run for 6 yds to the DUKE 3
3.2%
0.0
Q4 0:06
Jaden Hart run for 1 yd to the DUKE 2
3.2%
0.0
Q4 0:02
Rickie Collins pass incomplete to Jaden Hart
3.2%
0.0
DUKE · Drive 23END OF GAME · 1 play · -1 yds
Q4 0:00
(00:00) Kneel down by Duke at DUKE01 for loss of 1 yard.
1.4%
-1.8
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 3:12
Nate Sheppard run for 49 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q2 12:01
Darian Mensah pass complete to Cooper Barkate for 34 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-9.2
KEY PLAY · Q1 13:11
(13:24) PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference 15 yards from SYRA45 to DUKE40. NO PLAY.
-9.1