Try the model
DUKE

Duke 32 at North Carolina 25

UNC
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:25: (10:24) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at UNC02, for 14 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:25, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper) — DUKE win probability +8.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:15: (09:18) Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15 #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper) — DUKE win probability +10.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:52: (04:58) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete deep middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at DU 00, for 20 yards to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:52, 1ST DOWN #1 J.Shipp pass attempt Successful — UNC win probability +20.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 13:13: (13:16) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 12 yards gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:13, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett) — UNC win probability +25.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:18: (02:20) Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:18 #20 N.Sheppard pass attempt Successful — DUKE win probability +56.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 6:29DUKE 4th & 3 at UNC 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−0.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:18DUKE 4th & 1 at UNC 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:36UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:24UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:33DUKE 4th & 13 at UNC 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:07UNC 4th & 7 at DUKE 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:15DUKE 4th & 7 at UNC 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−1.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:43DUKE 4th & 9 at UNC 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:51DUKE 4th & 1 at UNC 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−3.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−15.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:37UNC 4th & 23 at UNC 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−11.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:29DUKE 4th & 7 at UNC 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:20DUKE 4th & 3 at UNC 27, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 7.9 ptsWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%−7.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−20.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:18UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:57UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:59DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:25DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:15DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:52UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:13UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:4831% → 38%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
31.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #12 D.June caught at UNC21, for 12 yards to the UNC37 (#2 J.Francois), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.5%
(14:33) No Huddle #12 D.June rush right for 0 yards to the UNC37 (#97 W.Williams; #7 V.Anthony Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
31.8%
(13:55) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC41 (#7 V.Anthony Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+22
32.2%
(13:10) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at DU 42, for 22 yards to the DU 37 (#5 K.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
32.6%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 36 (#2 J.Francois)Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+2
32.9%
(12:13) Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DU 34 (#2 J.Francois)Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+17
33.2%
(11:40) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at DU 20, for 17 yards to the DU 17 (#7 V.Anthony Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
33.5%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at DU 17, for 6 yards to the DU 11 (#34 L.Mergott), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+1
33.8%
(10:40) No Huddle #12 D.June rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 10 (#14 B.Davis)Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+3
34.0%
(10:07) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at DU 12, for 3 yards to the DU 07 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
34.8%
(09:13) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #80 J.Owens caught at DU 09, for 5 yards to the DU 02 (#0 C.Rivers), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.8%
(08:41) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush left for 1 yard gain to the DU 01 (#8 D.Stone; #42 K.Johnson)Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.5%
(08:00) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush right for 1 yard gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:57 #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:4464% → 66%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
36.2%
(07:50) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNC47 (#5 G.Gibson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
36.3%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC46 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude; #31 W.Hardy)Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
36.9%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short left to #2 S.Hagans thrown to UNC40 QB hurried by #8 S.VilbertSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+27
37.4%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at UNC34, for 27 yards to the UNC19 (#5 G.Gibson; #7 K.House), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
36.6%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC16 (#92 C.Mims)Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+6
37.0%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC10 (#31 W.Hardy)Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
37.9%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC10, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+6
38.7%
(04:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC04 (#7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
38.2%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC01 (#31 W.Hardy; #6 D.Robinson)Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.3%
(03:03) #4 A.Castle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:59 #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1237% → 36%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
(02:59) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #12 D.June caught at UNC20, for 0 yards to the UNC25 (#0 C.Rivers; #42 K.Johnson)Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
36.8%
(02:31) No Huddle #12 D.June rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC26 (#10 T.Reed)Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
36.5%
(01:46) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Green thrown to UNC35 QB hurried by #2 J.FrancoisSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
36.2%
(01:43) #96 T.Maginness punt 52 yards to the DU 22 fair catch by #7 Q.Brown at DU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
18 plays · 78 yds · 6:0464% → 69%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
36.2%
(01:35) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DU 24 (#2 A.Simpson; #6 D.Robinson)Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+15
36.4%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep left to #18 C.Barkate thrown to DU 47 PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (#1 T.Dixon) 15 yards from DU 24 to DU 39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
35.6%
(00:53) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 1 yard gain to the DU 40 (#94 I.Johnson; #8 S.Vilbert)Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
35.9%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #18 C.Barkate thrown to DU 40 broken up by #8 S.VilbertSimilar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+24
36.4%
(00:13) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep left to #18 C.Barkate caught at UNC36, for 24 yards to the UNC36 (#24 J.Butts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
35.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC32 (#91 L.Jackson; #31 W.Hardy). #92 C.Mims injured on the playSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+13
34.6%
(14:29) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at UNC33, for 13 yards to the UNC19 (#2 A.Simpson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
34.6%
(14:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 3 yards loss to the UNC22 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 13
OPP 22
-3
35.1%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #7 Q.Brown caught at UNC25, for 3 yards loss to the UNC25 (#21 K.Cost). #7 Q.Brown injured on the playSimilar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+16
37.2%
(12:47) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UNC09 (#1 T.Dixon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
35.3%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #8 J.Moore caught at UNC14, for 5 yards loss to the UNC14 (#5 G.Gibson)Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
36.1%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #2 S.Hagans caught at UNC20, for 0 yards to the UNC14 (#18 J.Patterson)Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
37.9%
(10:53) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #8 J.Moore caught at UNC18, for 0 yards to the UNC14, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 10:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+15
39.5%
PENALTY DU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#64 J.Larsen) 15 yards from UNC14 to UNC29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
31.2%
(10:24) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at UNC02, for 14 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:25, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5534% → 34%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.0%
(10:25) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep left to #85 S.Clower thrown to DU 42 QB hurried by #95 P.WatsonSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.9%
(10:20) #28 B.Hall rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNC31 (#42 K.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
33.6%
(09:42) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short right to #37 D.Gause thrown to UNC45 QB hurried by #97 W.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
33.5%
(09:33) #96 T.Maginness punt 56 yards to the DU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 6:4263% → 68%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
36.7%
(09:24) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at DU 10, for 6 yards to the DU 19 (#2 A.Simpson)Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+9
36.0%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 9 yards gain to the DU 28 (#16 C.Bryson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
35.7%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #4 A.Castle caught at DU 29, for 5 yards to the DU 33 (#29 M.Allen)Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
33.8%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DU 35 (#91 L.Jackson). #4 A.Castle injured on the playSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+8
33.9%
(07:54) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short middle to #18 C.Barkate thrown to DU 43 broken up by #29 M.Allen PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (#29 M.Allen) 8 yards from DU 35 to DU 43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
33.0%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 44 (#25 J.Mupoyi)Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
33.1%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DU 47 (#7 K.House; #94 I.Johnson)Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+22
33.4%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete deep left to #2 S.Hagans caught at UNC32, for 22 yards to the UNC31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
31.4%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC28 (#91 L.Jackson) PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UNC31 to UNC26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 5
OPP 26
0
31.4%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #7 Q.Brown thrown to UNC00 broken up by #18 J.PattersonSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
31.4%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #85 J.Hasley caught at UNC30, for 4 yards to the UNC22 (#2 A.Simpson)Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+9
31.2%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UNC13 (#12 G.Smith III; #6 D.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
30.8%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 9 yards gain to the UNC04 (#2 A.Simpson) PENALTY DU Holding (#77 J.Pickett) 10 yards from UNC13 to UNC23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 20
OPP 23
0
31.2%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #18 C.Barkate thrown to UNC00Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 20
OPP 23
-4
31.4%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 Q.Brown caught at UNC27, for 4 yards loss to the UNC27 (#18 J.Patterson)Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 24
OPP 27
+11
31.8%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush right for 11 yards gain to the UNC16 (#12 G.Smith III), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
32.1%
(02:37) #29 T.Pelino field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper), clock 02:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 2:1729% → 36%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.6%
(02:33) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC23, for 3 yards to the UNC28 (#15 K.O'Connor; #2 J.Francois)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
26.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC31 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
25.5%
(01:23) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #8 K.Paysour caught at UNC44, for 18 yards to the UNC49 (#26 M.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
26.9%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush right for 17 yards gain to the DU 34 (#4 J.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
29.8%
(00:59) Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DU 31 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
29.8%
(00:53) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush left for 5 yards gain to the DU 26 (#5 K.Robinson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+5
28.3%
(00:44) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at DU 17, for 21 yards to the DU 05 (#34 L.Mergott) PENALTY UNC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#80 J.Owens) 5 yards from DU 26 to DU 31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
27.8%
(00:15) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete short middle to #19 J.Johnson thrown to DU 31Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
36.0%
(00:11) #90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett), clock 00:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.8%
(00:07) Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at DU 24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
14 plays · 44 yds · 5:3573% → 85%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
26.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right thrown to UNC25 QB hurried by #2 A.SimpsonSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
26.6%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC44 (#2 A.Simpson; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+3
27.1%
(14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNC41 (#90 X.Lewis), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+13
27.9%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UNC28 (#24 J.Butts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
26.0%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 0 yards to the UNC28 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude) PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UNC28 to UNC23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+2
26.0%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC21 (#40 T.Thompson; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+8
25.7%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNC13 (#4 M.Gbayor; #31 W.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
25.6%
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNC05 (#31 W.Hardy; #5 G.Gibson). #8 S.Vilbert injured on the playSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+2
25.5%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC03 (#4 M.Gbayor; #31 W.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
25.5%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UNC04 (#4 M.Gbayor, #6 D.Robinson) PENALTY UNC Holding (#5 G.Gibson) 2 yards from UNC03 to UNC01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.4%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC01 (#31 W.Hardy; #12 G.Smith III)Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.3%
(09:22) #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Hasley thrown to UNC00 broken up by #29 M.Allen QB hurried by #7 K.HouseSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.8%
(09:18) Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15 #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:1018% → 41%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.3%
(09:13) #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #85 S.Clower caught at UNC25, for 7 yards to the UNC32 (#0 C.Rivers)Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
18.2%
(08:34) Shotgun #12 D.June rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC34 (#3 C.Weaver; #4 J.Green)Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
17.9%
(07:51) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #9 J.Green caught at UNC46, for 12 yards to the UNC46 (#5 K.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
18.9%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC47, for 7 yards to the DU 47 (#34 L.Mergott), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
19.6%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep left to #8 K.Paysour thrown to DU 00 broken up by #5 K.Robinson QB hurried by #95 P.WatsonSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
19.0%
(07:04) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #9 J.Green caught at DU 40, for 9 yards to the DU 38 (#0 C.Rivers), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#9 J.Green) 15 yards from DU 38 to UNC47Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
18.7%
(06:36) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #8 K.Paysour caught at DU 38, for 21 yards to the DU 32 (#0 C.Rivers; #8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
19.9%
(06:10) No Huddle #37 D.Gause rush left for 8 yards gain to the DU 24 (#42 K.Johnson). #66 J.Hall injured on the playSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+4
19.8%
(05:40) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 K.Paysour caught at DU 26, for 4 yards to the DU 20 (#4 J.Green; #34 L.Mergott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
40.7%
(04:58) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete deep middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at DU 00, for 20 yards to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:52, 1ST DOWN #1 J.Shipp pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:0372% → 72%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.5%
(04:50) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 0 yards to the DU 25 (#92 C.Mims)Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
29.3%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 29 yards gain to the UNC46 (#21 K.Cost), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
25.3%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC45 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
25.2%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short middle to #15 J.Taylor thrown to UNC44 QB hurried by #2 A.SimpsonSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
25.6%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #7 Q.Brown thrown to UNC13 broken up by #1 T.DixonSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
27.6%
(02:45) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 36 yards to the UNC09 fair catch by #31 W.Hardy at UNC09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 4:2133% → 67%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
32.5%
(02:43) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #37 D.Gause caught at UNC03, for 16 yards to the UNC25 (#34 L.Mergott), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
33.4%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UNC38 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
34.9%
(01:34) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at DU 49, for 15 yards to the DU 47 (#5 K.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
38.0%
(01:10) No Huddle #37 D.Gause rush right for 5 yards gain to the DU 42 (#4 J.Green; #3 C.Weaver)Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-3
38.4%
(00:30) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #12 D.June caught at DU 45, for 3 yards loss to the DU 45 (#2 J.Francois)Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+11
37.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at DU 34, for 11 yards to the DU 34 (#5 K.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
41.1%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 11 yards gain to the DU 23 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
41.4%
(13:55) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush left for 11 yards gain to the DU 12 (#42 K.Johnson; #8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
66.6%
(13:16) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 12 yards gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:13, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:1543% → 45%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
(13:13) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #18 C.Barkate thrown to DU 35Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.6%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 1 yard gain to the DU 26 (#6 D.Robinson; #9 M.Abou Jaoude)Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
59.5%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 Q.Brown caught at DU 35, for 9 yards to the DU 35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
56.5%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #7 Q.Brown caught at DU 34, for 14 yards to the DU 49, out of bounds at DU 49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
52.8%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC49 (#6 D.Robinson)Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+13
52.3%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at UNC47, for 13 yards to the UNC36 (#7 K.House), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
52.1%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at UNC29, for 8 yards to the UNC28 (#7 K.House)Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
49.5%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #0 L.King thrown to UNC15 QB hurried by #2 A.SimpsonSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
52.0%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNC27 (#25 J.Mupoyi; #94 I.Johnson)Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-11
55.4%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Q.Brown sacked for loss of 11 yards to the UNC38 (#94 I.Johnson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:0765% → 61%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.8%
(08:51) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC38 (#42 K.Johnson)Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-8
65.3%
(08:10) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UNC30 (#4 J.Green)Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 18
OWN 30
-5
61.6%
(07:24) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UNC25 (#99 A.Hall)Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 23
OWN 25
0
61.1%
(06:42) #96 T.Maginness punt 43 yards to the DU 32 fair catch by #18 C.Barkate at DU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:1344% → 93%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
56.0%
(06:37) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DU 37 (#4 M.Gbayor; #7 K.House)Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+18
55.9%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DU 36, for 18 yards to the UNC45 (#4 M.Gbayor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
52.2%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete deep right to #18 C.Barkate thrown to UNC08Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
52.9%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC42 (#94 I.Johnson)Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
53.6%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Hasley thrown to UNC34 broken up by #1 T.Dixon QB hurried by #12 G.Smith IIISimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+8
57.9%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #2 S.Hagans caught at UNC34, for 8 yards to the UNC34 (#18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
50.6%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC29 (#9 M.Abou Jaoude; #4 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
50.2%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short right to #18 C.Barkate caught at UNC30, for 2 yards to the UNC27 (#29 M.Allen). The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
53.7%
(02:33) Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass incomplete short middle thrown to UNC25 broken up by #8 S.VilbertSimilar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+26
59.2%
(02:26) #29 T.Pelino rush left for 26 yards gain to the UNC01 (#2 A.Simpson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. #91 L.Jackson injured on the playSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.0%
(02:20) Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:18 #20 N.Sheppard pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · -51 yds · 0:5615% → 9%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
14.7%
(02:14) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez rush left for 12 yards gain to the UNC29 (#7 V.Anthony Jr.), out of bounds PENALTY UNC Holding (#54 M.McVay) 9 yards from UNC17 to UNC08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 19
OWN 8
+13
14.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UNC21 (#2 J.Francois)Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-1
12.6%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC19, for 1 yard loss to the UNC20 (#0 C.Rivers)Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-6
12.3%
(01:31) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UNC14 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
8.8%
(01:22) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Paysour thrown to UNC45, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17END OF GAME
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4297% → 97%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
3.2%
PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#8 K.Paysour) 7 yards from UNC14 to UNC07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
3.2%
(01:16) Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at UNC09 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
3.2%
(01:16) Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at UNC08 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
3.1%
(00:36) Kneel down by #10 D.Mensah at UNC10 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:18
(02:20) Shotgun #4 A.Castle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:18 #20 N.Sheppard pass attempt Successful
-56.6
TD · Q4 13:13
(13:16) Shotgun #37 D.Gause rush middle for 12 yards gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:13, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #96 T.Maginness, LS: #42 S.Triplett)
+25.2
TD · Q3 4:52
(04:58) Shotgun #7 G.Lopez pass complete deep middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at DU 00, for 20 yards to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:52, 1ST DOWN #1 J.Shipp pass attempt Successful
+20.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com