Arizona State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2688th
  Defense+0.0584th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.3%91st
  Defense39.9%71st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2233rd
  Defense+1.2074th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3399th
  Defense+0.0859th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2147th
  Defense+0.0888th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense56.2%96th
  Defense45.7%71st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.6%65th
  Defense27.4%79th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.6599th
  Defense2.7879th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.2%83rd
  Defense16.7%47th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.9%84th
  Defense17.4%64th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arizona State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SUU
2. W
   UNLV
3. L
   BYU
4. W
   COLO
5. W
   UCLA
6. W
   STAN
7. L
   UTAH
8. L
   WSU
9. W
   USC
10. W
    WASH
11. L
    ORST
12. W
    ARIZ
13. L
    WIS

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arizona State.

Players, 2021

1. Jayden DanielsQB364 plays · +0.284 pts/play · 34th of 219 QBs
   1.94WAR1.21 to 2.58
2. Rachaad WhiteRB190 plays · +0.258 pts/play · 9th of 387 RBs
   0.92WAR0.74 to 1.10
3. Chip TrayanumRB64 plays · +0.177 pts/play · 209th of 387 RBs
   0.21WAR0.15 to 0.28
4. Ricky PearsallWR54 plays · +0.178 pts/play · 88th of 474 WRs
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.24
5. Daniyel NgataRB35 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 267th of 387 RBs
   0.13WAR0.10 to 0.16
6. Eddie CzaplickiP42 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 56th of 101 punters
   0.11WAR0.04 to 0.17
7. LV Bunkley-SheltonWR32 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 261st of 474 WRs
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.12
8. Bryan ThompsonWR20 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 403rd of 474 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arizona State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  73473426th of 130Roster talent: 734, 26th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  21121131st of 130Recruiting: 211, 31st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  98%98%10th of 128Returning production: 98%, 10th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.8+11.826th of 130SP+ rating: +11.8, 26th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arizona State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ORSTQ3 6:12 4th & 3 at ORST 8, down 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
2. vs WSUQ3 6:19 4th & 2 at ASU 44, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
3. at UCLAQ3 10:38 4th & 3 at UCLA 48, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. vs USCQ4 14:08 4th & 2 at ASU 14, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs COLOQ2 3:06 4th & 3 at ASU 48, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. vs COLOQ2 3:06 4th & 3 at ASU 48, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at WASHQ2 4:07 4th & 4 at ASU 48, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs ARIZQ2 5:33 4th & 5 at ARIZ 40, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

108th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arizona State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SUU
2. W

   UNLV
3. L

   BYU
4. W

   COLO
5. W

   UCLA
6. W

   STAN
7. L

   UTAH
8. L

   WSU
9. W

   USC
10. W

    WASH
11. L

    ORST
12. W

    ARIZ
13. L

    WIS

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Arizona State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.54
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts−0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.85

Game by game

• SUUW 41-14 vs SUU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• UNLVW 37-10 vs UNLV98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• BYUL 17-27 at BYU66% → 4%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −42, Possession & field position +1
• COLOW 35-13 vs COLO85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +19
• UCLAW 42-23 at UCLA44% → 99%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +55, Clock +2
• STANW 28-10 vs STAN85% → 99%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts −1
• UTAHL 21-35 at UTAH54% → 1%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −42, Timeouts −2
• WSUL 21-34 vs WSU87% → 2%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −85: Scoreboard −61, Clock −3
• USCW 31-16 vs USC72% → 99%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30
• WASHW 35-30 at WASH66% → 85%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• ORSTL 10-24 at ORST63% → 1%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −47, Timeouts −2
• ARIZW 38-15 vs ARIZ92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +11
• WISL 13-20 vs WIS31% → 6%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −39, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Arizona State's side.

Closest call

ASU 38-34 USC (2014) - Arizona State dropped to a 5.2% win probability before pulling it out.