2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:13 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:15: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 28 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:09: Deon McIntosh run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:54: Dean Janikowski 40 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +3.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:54: DeaMonte Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — WSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:37: Dean Janikowski 44 yd FG MISSED — WSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:33WSU 4th & 3 at ASU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.6%53% to convertField goal14.5%−0.151% to makePunt14.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:35ASU 4th & 5 at WSU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.6%42% to convertField goal83.6%−0.142% to makePunt83.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:33ASU 4th & 1 at WSU 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.8%71% to convertField goal69.6%−1.281% to makePunt66.0%−4.7average punt
- Q2 10:53ASU 4th & 12 at WSU 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snapGo for it66.5%−1.120% to convertField goalTheir call67.6%84% to makePunt63.3%−4.3average punt
- Q2 10:53WSU 4th & 1 at ASU 42, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.9%70% to convertField goal27.4%−2.430% to makePunt28.0%−1.9average punt
- Q3 12:52WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 33, up 11Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snapGo for it47.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:05ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 48, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snapGo for it50.4%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.3%average punt
- Q3 10:32WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 36, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snapGo for it49.7%−2.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.7%average punt
- Q3 6:19ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 44, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it42.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.3%−1.1average punt
- Q3 4:24WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 49, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it63.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.0%−1.1average punt
- Q4 14:54WSU 4th & 12 at ASU 23, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snapGo for it66.9%−2.522% to convertField goalTheir call69.4%70% to makePunt60.3%−9.2average punt
- Q4 13:13ASU 4th & 17 at ASU 10, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it22.4%−2.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q4 6:50WSU 4th & 10 at ASU 15, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snapGo for it84.3%−0.827% to convertField goalTheir call85.1%83% to makePunt79.9%−5.2average punt
- Q4 1:37WSU 4th & 16 at ASU 27, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.0%−0.615% to convertField goalTheir call94.6%62% to makePunt93.2%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:44WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.1%97% to makeGo for two16.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:15WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.2%97% to makeGo for two25.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartASUDrive 1FUMBLE3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4187% → 87%
WSUDrive 2DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3813% → 14%
ASUDrive 3FUMBLE1 play · 12 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
86.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 12 yds Bryan Thompson fumbled, forced by Daniel Isom, recovered by WshSt Justus RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4TD6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3814% → 16%
Q1 12:22
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
86.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 6 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+6
86.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 4 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5INT12 plays · 44 yds · 5:1984% → 82%
Q1 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-5
84.3%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Scott,Ben) 5 yards from ASU27 to ASU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+14
84.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 14 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+20
84.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 20 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+4
84.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 4 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+6
84.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 6 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6TD7 plays · 87 yds · 3:0119% → 26%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+30
80.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 30 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
80.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 1 yd to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
73.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 28 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7DOWNS8 plays · 47 yds · 3:4275% → 71%
WSUDrive 8INT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4930% → 31%
Q2 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-5
70.0%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Lucas,Abraham) 5 yards from WSU21 to WSU16. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9FG5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5170% → 72%
Q2 11:44
4TH & 7
OPP 9
-5
69.5%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Johnson,Tyler) 5 yards from WSU09 to WSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10TD14 plays · 80 yds · 5:4429% → 37%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
71.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 8 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
70.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 17 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
70.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 4 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+34
69.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 34 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
69.9%
de Laura,Jayden pass incomplete to Jackson, Jr.,Calvin PENALTY ASU Holding (Lucas,Chase) 4 yards from ASU08 to ASU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FUMBLE8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3263% → 58%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
63.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete pass complete to for 19 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
62.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 13 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
64.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 1 yd to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-10
60.3%
Daniels,Jayden rush for 55 yards gain to the WSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:46 PENALTY ASU Holding (Scott,Ben) 10 yards from ASU45 to ASU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+14
58.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Daniyel Ngata for 14 yds Daniyel Ngata fumbled, forced by Derrick Langford, recovered by WshSt Ron Stone Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12TD3 plays · 49 yds · 0:4742% → 43%
Q2 1:50
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+45
57.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD15 plays · 78 yds · 1:1958% → 60%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
57.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 6 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+24
58.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Andre Johnson for 24 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
60.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 4 yds to the WshSt 40Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
60.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to DeaMonte Trayanum for 10 yds to the WshSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
60.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Andre Johnson for 6 yds to the WshSt 12Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
59.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 12 yds for a TD (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0843% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
56.7%
de Laura,Jayden pass complete to Stribling,De'Zhaun for 7 yards to the WSU32 (Jones,Jack; Robertson,Merlin) PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Harris,Travell) 12 yards from WSU25 to WSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
54.4%
Nick Haberer punt for 41 yds , LV Bunkley-Shelton returns for 6 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:4754% → 52%
WSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 1:3348% → 50%
ASUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 4:1349% → 43%
WSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 29 yds · 1:5558% → 61%
ASUDrive 20INT5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0838% → 34%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
38.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 3 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21FG6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2267% → 69%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
33.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Max Borghi for 13 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3431% → 25%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
30.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Andre Johnson for 2 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-11
30.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Ron Stone Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 17
OWN 10
0
24.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23FG12 plays · 42 yds · 6:2375% → 87%
ASUDrive 24TD8 plays · 40 yds · 1:4417% → 16%
WSUDrive 25FG11 plays · 12 yds · 3:1791% → 98%
Q4 4:07
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-10
8.4%
Watson,Nakia rush for 5 yards gain to the ASU18 (Matus,Michael) PENALTY WSU Holding (Fifita,Ma'ake) 10 yards from ASU23 to ASU33. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26TD6 plays · 73 yds · 1:093% → 3%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
2.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Andre Johnson for 8 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+15
2.6%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+28
2.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 28 yds to the WshSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
3.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Andre Johnson for 11 yds for a TD (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:09
Deon McIntosh run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-7.1
FG · Q4 1:37
Dean Janikowski 44 yd FG MISSED
-6.4
TD · Q1 1:15
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 28 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-4.5