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ASU

Arizona State 10 at Oregon State 24

ORST
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:05 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the ArzSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+21.5Pregame prior−1.9Score differential+6.3Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:09: Tre'Shaun Harrison 10 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick) — ORST win probability +7.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:59: Chance Nolan 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick) — ORST win probability +14.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:12: Cristian Zendejas 26 Yd Field Goal — ASU win probability +6.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:56: DeaMonte Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick) — ASU win probability +15.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:24: Jack Colletto 47 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick) — ORST win probability +9.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:44ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45ORST 4th & 5 at ASU 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:55ASU 4th & 9 at ORST 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:30ORST 4th & 1 at ASU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:47ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:23ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:12ASU 4th & 3 at ORST 8, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%−1.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−11.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:36ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:44ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:39ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 27, up 14
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:24ORST 4th & 2 at ASU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.2%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:05ASU 4th & 14 at ASU 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:39ORST 4th & 11 at ASU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:22ASU 4th & 18 at ASU 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:09ORST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:59ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:56ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:24ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:1463% → 63%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
37.4%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
37.4%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Alex Austin return for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1638% → 38%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
37.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 5 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Luke Loecher punt for 59 yds, downed at the ArzSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3562% → 61%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
38.2%
Rachaad White run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+7
38.3%
Rachaad White run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
38.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Rachaad WhiteSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-2
38.5%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Avery Roberts for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+3
38.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Case Hatch for 3 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+3
39.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:4540% → 41%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
39.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 3
50
+11
40.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
40.3%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+2
40.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+2
40.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
41.3%
Everett Hayes 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:2558% → 57%
Q1 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+24
41.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
41.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
41.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
50
+1
41.2%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+34
41.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 34 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
41.1%
Rachaad White run for no gain to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
41.2%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-5
41.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
42.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Bryan ThompsonSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
42.8%
Cristian Zendejas 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 7:2043% → 56%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
43.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 7 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
43.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
43.7%
Nolan, Chance pass complete to Colletto, Jack for 21 yards to the ARIZONAST48, PENALTY OREGONST holding (Brewer, Marco) 10 yards to the OREGONST21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+13
43.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 13 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+17
44.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
45.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
46.1%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
46.1%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
45.4%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
47.2%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
47.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+12
47.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 12 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
48.5%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+10
49.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
56.1%
Tre'Shaun Harrison 10 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5846% → 43%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
54.1%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
55.0%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
55.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Rachaad WhiteSimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
56.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 yds, downed at the OrgSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
16 plays · 88 yds · 5:4156% → 80%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
56.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
57.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
58.2%
Trevon Bradford run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45 Trevon Bradford fumbled, forced by Jack Jones, recovered by OrgStSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
59.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
60.1%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+15
58.7%
Nolan, Chance pass incomplete to Bradford, Trevon, PENALTY ARIZONAST pass interference (Lucas, Chase) 15 yards to the ARIZONAST36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST.Similar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
61.0%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+10
61.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
62.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+5
63.4%
Colletto, Jack pass complete to Lowe, Trey for 3 yards to the ARIZONAST14, PENALTY ARIZONAST offside (Norman-Lott, Omarr) 5 yards to the ARIZONAST12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST.Similar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
65.3%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
66.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+4
65.5%
Jack Colletto run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.9%
Chance Nolan 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9DOWNS
15 plays · 47 yds · 1:2525% → 25%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
74.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 7 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
74.4%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
74.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 7 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+7
73.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 7 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
74.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-5
72.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Spencer Lovell) to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
74.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+16
74.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
71.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Bryan ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
71.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+49
75.0%
Logan Tyler 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0778% → 77%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
77.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
77.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 52 yds, downed at the ArzSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 76 yds · 6:5321% → 24%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
79.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 4 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
80.4%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+4
80.4%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
80.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
80.4%
Ricky Pearsall run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
81.2%
Rachaad White run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
81.2%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
81.6%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+22
81.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 22 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
80.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
81.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
81.7%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
83.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for no gain to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
76.3%
Cristian Zendejas 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2481% → 83%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
81.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
83.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
84.5%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
84.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
83.4%
Luke Loecher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Taylor at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 2:4117% → 14%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
83.3%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-5
83.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Rachaad White) to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 14
OWN 11
-5
84.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Ricky Pearsall) to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 19
OWN 6
+15
85.3%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to White, Rachaad, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference (Franke, Ryan) 15 yards to the ARIZONAST21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST.Similar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
84.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Spencer Lovell) to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
84.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Bryan ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+17
84.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 17 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
82.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Bryan ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
83.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
84.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Bryan ThompsonSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
86.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · -21 yds · 0:4690% → 89%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
90.5%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
90.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-23
88.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards to the OrgSt 4 TEAM fumbled, forced by Chad Johnson Jr., recovered by ArzSt Timarcus DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0416% → 32%
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.7%
Rachaad White run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.8%
DeaMonte Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1180% → 92%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
79.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
82.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
50
+2
83.5%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
82.7%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+47
92.4%
Jack Colletto 47 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:259% → 9%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
90.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 6 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 15
-3
90.6%
Rachaad White run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 12
-7
91.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Keonte Schad and Kyrei Fisher for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 14
OWN 5
0
91.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:4195% → 97%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
95.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 12 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
95.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
95.5%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+2
95.8%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
96.3%
Trevon Bradford run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
-15
96.4%
Baylor, B.J. rush for loss of 2 yards to the ARIZONAST13, PENALTY OREGONST personal foul (Brewer, Marco) 15 yards to the ARIZONAST26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 18
OPP 26
+4
96.4%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+3
96.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 3 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
96.9%
Everett Hayes 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:383% → 3%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
96.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 15 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
96.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 11 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Rachaad WhiteSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
96.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
96.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-5
97.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Spencer Lovell) to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 17
OWN 39
-1
97.3%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Kitan Oladapo for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
97.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
98.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+24
98.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 24 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:56
DeaMonte Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)
-15.9
TD · Q2 1:59
Chance Nolan 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)
+14.4
TD · Q4 11:24
Jack Colletto 47 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com