2021 · SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl · Dec 30, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:43 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds , Dean Engram returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:40: John Chenal 8 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +1.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:37: Jake Ferguson 7 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +3.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:02: Collin Larsh 35 Yd Field Goal — WIS win probability +6.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:52: Daniyel Ngata 3 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick) — ASU win probability +14.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:04: WISCONSIN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Wisc 47 — WIS win probability +6.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 4:21ASU 4th & 10 at WIS 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call33.2%75% to makePunt31.4%−1.9average punt
- Q2 14:13ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snapGo for it29.7%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.2%average punt
- Q2 11:13ASU 4th & 5 at WIS 18, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snapGo for it29.7%−0.240% to convertField goalTheir call29.9%79% to makePunt26.4%−3.6average punt
- Q2 5:42WIS 4th & 4 at ASU 30, up 8Close callKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snapGo for it71.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call70.6%−0.656% to makePunt69.6%−1.7average punt
- Q2 4:43ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 28, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snapGo for it25.3%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q2 0:02WIS 4th & 1 at ASU 17, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snapGo for it77.6%71% to convertField goalTheir call75.8%−1.780% to makePunt71.1%−6.5average punt
- Q3 11:31WIS 4th & 20 at WIS 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it78.1%−3.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.6%average punt
- Q3 6:48WIS 4th & 17 at WIS 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snapGo for it67.4%−3.813% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.3%average punt
- Q4 14:15WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.6%−0.951% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.5%average punt
- Q4 9:57ASU 4th & 8 at WIS 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it23.1%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.4%average punt
- Q4 0:00WIS 4th & 10 at ASU 10, up 7Close callWent for it · 92.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.4%−0.124% to convertField goal92.6%88% to makePunt92.0%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:40WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.9%97% to makeGo for two66.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:37WIS Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.5%97% to makeGo for two69.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:52ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.9%97% to makeGo for two26.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartASUDrive 1INT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3431% → 32%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-13
31.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 13 yards to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 23
OWN 24
0
31.7%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted John Torchio return for no gain to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3469% → 69%
Q1 11:45
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+31
32.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Markus Allen for 31 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3FG16 plays · 55 yds · 7:1231% → 34%
Q1 8:02
2ND & 11
50
+5
31.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
32.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Leo Chenal for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+20
32.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 20 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-8
33.1%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jack Sanborn and Noah Burks for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 18
OPP 28
+8
32.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 8 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2466% → 71%
Q1 3:04
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
33.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to John Chenal for 6 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0230% → 29%
WISDrive 6INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
29.7%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Timarcus Davis return for 2 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7FG7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4631% → 31%
WISDrive 8FG12 plays · 45 yds · 5:2370% → 73%
ASUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4727% → 26%
Q2 4:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
25.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds , Dean Engram returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10DOWNS12 plays · 55 yds · 4:1373% → 85%
WISDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 3:1980% → 81%
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
19.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 1 yd to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
19.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-13
17.5%
Graham Mertz sacked by B.J. Green II for a loss of 13 yards to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+18
19.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 57 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for 18 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD5 plays · 64 yds · 2:2520% → 35%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+38
20.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 38 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5272% → 71%
ASUDrive 15PUNT12 plays · 26 yds · 5:3130% → 30%
Q3 4:05
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
33.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 3 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+19
30.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 19 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 17
OPP 37
-12
31.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jack Sanborn for a loss of 12 yards to the Wisc 49 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 27
OPP 47
+9
29.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 41 yds , Dean Engram returns for 9 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4774% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 4:1127% → 25%
Q4 12:52
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+35
24.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 35 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 11
50
+3
28.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to George Hart III for 3 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-5
29.5%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18DOWNS25 plays · 90 yds · 9:4480% → 94%
Q4 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+10
19.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to John Chenal for 10 yds to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+30
17.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 30 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
7.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:52
Daniyel Ngata 3 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)
+14.2
FG · Q2 0:02
Collin Larsh 35 Yd Field Goal
-6.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:04
WISCONSIN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Wisc 47
-6.5