Arizona State

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2185th
  Defense+0.1340th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.4%71st
  Defense46.5%20th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2042nd
  Defense+1.1083rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1576th
  Defense+0.0846th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3082nd
  Defense+0.2228th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.1%60th
  Defense51.3%19th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.8%78th
  Defense35.1%28th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9350th
  Defense2.9345th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.4%49th
  Defense19.9%55th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.9%66th
  Defense16.3%53rd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arizona State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UTSA
2. W
   MSU
3. L
   SDSU
4. L
   WASH
5. W
   ORST
6. L
   COLO
7. L
   STAN
8. W
   USC
9. W
   UTAH
10. W
    UCLA
11. L
    ORE
12. W
    ARIZ
13. L
    FRES

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arizona State.

Players, 2018

1. Manny WilkinsQB475 plays · +0.229 pts/play · 23rd of 225 QBs
   2.03WAR1.40 to 2.75
2. Eno BenjaminRB316 plays · +0.203 pts/play · 1st of 351 RBs
   1.20WAR0.99 to 1.40
3. N'Keal HarryWR106 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 7th of 434 WRs
   0.33WAR0.17 to 0.50
4. Brandon RuizPK21 plays · +0.402 pts/play · 13th of 112 kickers
   0.16WAR0.10 to 0.21
5. Frank DarbyWR37 plays · +0.177 pts/play · 135th of 434 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.18
6. Kyle WilliamsWR53 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 144th of 434 WRs
   0.12WAR0.05 to 0.19
7. Brandon AiyukWR40 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 168th of 434 WRs
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.16
8. Michael Sleep-DaltonP57 plays · +0.051 pts/play · 57th of 91 punters
   0.05WAR−0.05 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arizona State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  68868829th of 130Roster talent: 688, 29th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  21621627th of 130Recruiting: 216, 27th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  90%90%7th of 129Returning production: 90%, 7th of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +5.0+5.051st of 130SP+ rating: +5.0, 51st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arizona State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.15 of the 0.19 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at COLOQ3 4:45 4th & 1 at COLO 48, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−4.0 pts
2. at USCQ4 6:22 4th & 8 at USC 36, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
3. vs UTAHQ3 8:45 4th & 1 at ASU 35, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
4. vs UTAHQ4 10:27 4th & 3 at UTAH 3, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
5. at COLOQ3 6:36 4th & 2 at ASU 48, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
6. at FRESQ2 0:51 4th & 2 at FRES 2, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
7. at USCQ2 1:46 4th & 4 at ASU 40, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. vs UTAHQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at ASU 34, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

52nd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arizona State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UTSA
2. W

   MSU
3. L

   SDSU
4. L

   WASH
5. W

   ORST
6. L

   COLO
7. L

   STAN
8. W

   USC
9. W

   UTAH
10. W

    UCLA
11. L

    ORE
12. W

    ARIZ
13. L

    FRES

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at Arizona State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.32
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts−0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.08

Game by game

• UTSAW 49-7 vs UTSA91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +12
• MSUW 16-13 vs MSU37% → 95%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +3
• SDSUL 21-28 at SDSU68% → 8%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −33, Possession & field position −2
• WASHL 20-27 at WASH10% → 3%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −16, Timeouts −1
• ORSTW 52-24 vs ORST93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +9
• COLOL 21-28 at COLO44% → 6%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −2
• STANL 13-20 vs STAN45% → 17%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −42, Possession & field position +4
• USCW 38-35 at USC44% → 80%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +37, Clock +3
• UTAHW 38-20 vs UTAH33% → 99%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +51, Timeouts +1
• UCLAW 31-28 vs UCLA81% → 82%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +11, Possession & field position +2
• OREL 29-31 at ORE38% → 20%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −18, Timeouts −3
• ARIZW 41-40 at ARIZ55% → 90%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +45, Clock +3
• FRESL 20-31 at FRES36% → 3%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Arizona State's side.

Closest call

ASU 38-34 USC (2014) - Arizona State dropped to a 5.2% win probability before pulling it out.