Try the model
ASU

Arizona State 21 at Colorado 28

COLO
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Folsom Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:36 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 48 yds, downed at the Colo 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−2.8Pregame prior+2.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:45: Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +11.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +11.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:35: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 40 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +14.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:46: Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +15.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:42: Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +24.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 7ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00COLO 4th & 2 at ASU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00COLO 4th & 8 at ASU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:25ASU 4th & 4 at COLO 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:48COLO 4th & 4 at ASU 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:39COLO 4th & 2 at ASU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−2.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:46ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:49COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:36ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 48, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:24COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:45ASU 4th & 1 at COLO 48, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:11ASU 4th & 3 at COLO 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−2.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−16.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:12COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−3.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:01ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:47ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:52COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:45ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:24COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:35ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:46COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:42COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
56.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 20 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
56.2%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
56.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 3 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
56.2%
K.D. Nixon run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+5
56.2%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
56.2%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
56.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+2
56.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
56.2%
Davis Price punt for 26 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
17 plays · 86 yds · 6:3344% → 48%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
56.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-1
56.4%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+5
56.5%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Darby, Frank, PENALTY COLO offside defense (Tchangam, Alex) 5 yards to the ASU25, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
56.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+17
56.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
56.2%
Isaiah Floyd run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+16
56.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 16 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
56.1%
COLORADO Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 5
OPP 32
0
56.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+9
56.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
56.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-3
56.0%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jase Franke for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
56.1%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, QB hurry by Taylor, Davion, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Wigley, Dante) 15 yards to the COLO8, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
55.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 7 yds to the Colo 1Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.5%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the Colo 1Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5553% → 59%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
53.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 3 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
54.1%
Travon McMillian run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
54.5%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+39
54.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 39 yds to the ArzSt 3 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
55.1%
Kyle Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
55.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 3 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.7%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4MISSED FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:2243% → 44%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
56.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+1
56.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+2
57.0%
N'Keal Harry run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
56.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+30
56.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 30 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
55.5%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the Colo 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
54.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Quinn Bailey) to the Colo 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 46
-5
55.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Casey Tucker) to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+16
55.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 16 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
54.2%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+53
56.0%
Brandon Ruiz 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3759% → 60%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 3 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
59.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 12 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.1%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+22
59.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 22 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
60.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 7 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
60.8%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-1
60.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
59.7%
James Stefanou 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:0343% → 57%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
57.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
55.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 1 yd to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
55.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+20
55.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 5 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, targeting (Nate Landman) to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
54.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
53.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
53.5%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
53.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
54.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the Colo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
53.5%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
53.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+9
54.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 9 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7TD
17 plays · 84 yds · 5:1546% → 63%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
46.3%
Travon McMillian run for 14 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
46.3%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+27
45.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 27 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
49.3%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
49.4%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
49.3%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+7
48.3%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
50.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Khaylan Kearse-Thomas) to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
50.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 9 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 6
0
50.8%
Kyle Evans run for no gain to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
49.4%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.1%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
55.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2546% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
53.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 19 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
51.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 15 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
50.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Casey Tucker) to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+6
51.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+40
37.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 40 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4942% → 62%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
41.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+6
45.2%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+10
45.6%
Travon McMillian run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
46.9%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+30
61.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
54.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 13 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
52.6%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
52.8%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
55.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
56.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 47 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for no gain to the Colo 20 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled, recovered by Colo Ronnie BlackmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 5 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
56.2%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+11
55.2%
Davis Price punt for 44 yds , N'Keal Harry returns for 11 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5248% → 47%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
51.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
51.6%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
53.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
53.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 48 yds, downed at the Colo 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
58.4%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Colo 4Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
58.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyre, broken up by Kobe WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+3
56.8%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 7
OWN 7
+5
56.2%
Price, Davis punt 33 yards to the COLO40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU offside defense (Cornay, Darien) 5 yards to the COLO12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
56.4%
Davis Price punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
51.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
50.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
50.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
52.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3159% → 85%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
58.7%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+24
58.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 24 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
62.5%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
63.5%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
62.9%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
63.4%
McMillian, Trav rush for 5 yards to the ASU37 (Harvey, Jalen), PENALTY COLO holding (Sherman, Willia) 10 yards to the COLO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+51
60.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 51 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:3123% → 22%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+72
77.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 72 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
71.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the Colo 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
71.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Mustafa Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 10Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
77.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the Colo 3Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 40 yds · 4:1385% → 87%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
84.8%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+9
84.6%
Travon McMillian run for 9 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
85.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+1
85.2%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+12
84.5%
Steven Montez run for 12 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
85.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 9 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
86.1%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
86.7%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
86.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-10
88.3%
Montez, Steven rush for 9 yards to the ASU42, PENALTY COLO holding (Pursell, Colby) 10 yards to the COLO39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+4
87.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 4 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 11
OWN 43
+9
87.0%
Davis Price punt for 36 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for 9 yds to the ArzSt 30 Brandon Aiyuk fumbled, forced by Beau Bisharat, recovered by ArzSt Kyle WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 13%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
84.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
84.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
85.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+5
86.6%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 47 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 5 yds to the Colo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20END OF GAME
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:4390% → 94%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
89.6%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+7
89.9%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
90.3%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
90.9%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
90.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
50
+4
91.0%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-1
91.0%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+8
94.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 8 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
94.6%
Kyle Evans run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+10
95.0%
Travon McMillian run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-1
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-2
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:42
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)
+24.7
TD · Q3 11:46
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (James Stefanou KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 13:35
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 40 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com