2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUTSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:03 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 62 yds, downed at the TexSA 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:44: Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 58 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — UTSA win probability +0.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 13:01: Cordale Grundy pass intercepted for a TD Shannon Forman return for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK). — ASU win probability +0.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:26: Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:32: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Terrell Chatman for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:41: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 7 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 13:01UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.4%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q1 10:03ASU 4th & 21 at ASU 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snapGo for it87.4%−0.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q1 9:02UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 48, down 14Close callPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 6:48ASU 4th & 15 at UTSA 42, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.1%−0.317% to convertField goal88.2%−0.230% to makePuntTheir call88.3%average punt
- Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it12.0%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q2 14:12ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 35, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snapGo for it88.5%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%average punt
- Q2 7:53ASU 4th & 3 at UTSA 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.9%52% to convertField goal88.4%−0.462% to makePunt85.9%−2.9average punt
- Q2 4:26UTSA 4th & 21 at UTSA 14, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it4.2%−1.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q3 14:53UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 27, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q3 13:14ASU 4th & 11 at UTSA 39, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.127% to convertField goal99.0%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q3 9:38UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 3, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.615% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 5:41UTSA 4th & 17 at ASU 32, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.214% to convertField goal0.4%51% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 5, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:10ASU 4th & 2 at UTSA 27, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.162% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:23UTSA 4th & 10 at ASU 30, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goal0.1%56% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:03UTSA 4th & 2 at ASU 4, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%50% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.193% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:03ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 32, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:44ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.2%97% to makeGo for two87.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 13:01ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.6%97% to makeGo for two87.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:26ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:32ASU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:41ASU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:57ASU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:38ASU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:03UTSA Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartASUDrive 1TD6 plays · 81 yds · 1:1691% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
90.9%
[SG], PENALTY ASU delay of game (Wilkins, Manny) 5 yards to the ASU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+21
90.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 21 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
90.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Jenkins for 7 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+58
90.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 58 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2INT TD3 plays · -3 yds · 0:439% → 9%
UTSADrive 3PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
90.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 17 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 12
OWN 44
-5
90.9%
ROUTSAS, Yannis punt 50 yards to the ASU6, Aiyuk, Brandon return to the ASU5 (TAYLOR, Dadrian), PENALTY UTSA IF 5 yards to the UTSA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
90.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for no gain to the ArzSt 12 Brandon Aiyuk fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Brandon AiyukSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
UTSADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 9:02
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
90.7%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 2 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 55 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+15
91.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 15 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
91.2%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass (Losoya, Alex) 5 yards to the ASU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+11
91.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 11 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT11 plays · 39 yds · 3:319% → 9%
Q1 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+6
91.1%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Kirk Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
90.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 9 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.9%
Cordale Grundy sacked by Tyler Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (Chase Lucas) to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
90.8%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 9 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
90.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
UTSADrive 9FUMBLE14 plays · 49 yds · 3:3810% → 9%
Q2 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+5
90.5%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Kirk Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
90.4%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 13 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+20
90.3%
Cordale Grundy run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Harvey) to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+9
90.0%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 9 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+4
90.8%
Cordale Grundy sacked by Darius Slade for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 36 Cordale Grundy fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Darius Slade , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD8 plays · 64 yds · 3:2792% → 97%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
91.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ceejhay French-Love for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+21
91.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 21 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-10
91.9%
[NHSG], Benjamin, Eno rush for 16 yards to the UTSA13 (TAUAEFA, Josiah), PENALTY ASU holding (Miller, Steven) 10 yards to the UTSA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+8
91.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 8 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+24
91.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 24 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
95.7%
D.J. Gillins pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-8
95.8%
D.J. Gillins sacked by Chase Lucas for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 14Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+8
95.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for 8 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12TD6 plays · 43 yds · 2:2297% → 99%
UTSADrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
UTSADrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
D.J. Gillins pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Merlin RobertsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.3%
[SG], PENALTY UTSA offside (STRONG JR., K.) 5 yards to the ASU35, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 7
-4
99.5%
D.J. Gillins sacked by Jalen Bates and Malik Lawal for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 3Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 14
OWN 3
+57
99.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brandon Aiyuk at the ArzSt 45 ARIZONA ST Penalty, IB (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
UTSADrive 18DOWNS13 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Demonte KingSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+27
99.7%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Kirk Johnson Jr. for 27 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
99.7%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Kirk Johnson Jr. for 12 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 17
OPP 32
-7
99.7%
Cordale Grundy sacked by Khaylan Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD5 plays · 61 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
UTSADrive 20PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
99.9%
Cordale Grundy sacked by D.J. Davidson for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 8Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+4
99.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 4 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 12
-7
99.9%
Cordale Grundy sacked by Darius Slade for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD5 plays · 35 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 14:10
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+22
99.9%
Dillon Sterling-Cole run for 22 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:350% → 0%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
99.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 33 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
99.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Kirk Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-7
99.9%
Cordale Grundy sacked by D.J. Davidson for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+18
100.0%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 18 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
100.0%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Brenden Brady for 7 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24FUMBLE9 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
100.0%
D.J. Gillins pass incomplete to Sheldon Jones, broken up by Aashari CrosswellSimilar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+8
100.0%
D.J. Gillins pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 8 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
100.0%
D.J. Gillins pass incomplete to Blaze Moorhead, broken up by Dominique HarrisonSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
100.0%
D.J. Gillins pass incomplete to Sheldon Jones, broken up by Dasmond TautalatasiSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
100.0%
D.J. Gillins pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 26 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-17
100.0%
D.J. Gillins sacked by Kyle Soelle for a loss of 17 yards to the TexSA 45 D.J. Gillins fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Jordan Hoyt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:26
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 0:32
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Terrell Chatman for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q1 13:44
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 58 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-0.2