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ASU

Arizona State 38 at USC 35

USC
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:22 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense−14.2Score differential−4.5Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:12: Eno Benjamin run for 49 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +11.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:13: Jack Sears pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +6.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:49: Velus Jones Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +16.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 10:24: Tyler Vaughns pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +20.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:35: Jack Sears pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 52 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK) — USC win probability +16.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 12:52ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:58USC 4th & 16 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:12ASU 4th & 8 at USC 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:29USC 4th & 16 at USC 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:45USC 4th & 7 at USC 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:46ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 40, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:26ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:54USC 4th & 10 at ASU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:14USC 4th & 6 at ASU 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:29ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:16USC 4th & 1 at ASU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−2.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−18.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:22ASU 4th & 8 at USC 36, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−1.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:53USC 4th & 3 at USC 24, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:55ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:22ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:12ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13USC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:49USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:24USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:23ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:35USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5144% → 43%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
56.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
56.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
56.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
56.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+82
56.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 40 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 82 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4843% → 44%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.0%
N'Keal Harry run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
57.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
57.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Nick Ralston for 6 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
57.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
57.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+11
57.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 11 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
57.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+44
55.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 44 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4156% → 56%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
56.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+7
56.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
56.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 3
OWN 6
-22
56.3%
Jack Sears run for a loss of 19 yards to the USC 3 Jack Sears fumbled, recovered by ArzSt USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-3 Yards) to the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2745% → 48%
Q1 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.2%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the USC 3Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:1453% → 52%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
53.1%
Jack Sears run for 7 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+22
53.2%
Jack Sears pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 22 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
54.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
53.9%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-5
53.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-5
52.8%
Jack Sears sacked by Merlin Robertson for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 16
50
+5
51.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 42 yds , N'Keal Harry returns for 5 yds to the ArzSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:2249% → 51%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+23
51.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 23 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
50.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 20 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
49.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 17 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
49.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+6
48.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
48.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
48.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
48.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
48.7%
Brandon Ruiz 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -4957 yds · 2:2248% → 45%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
47.6%
Jack Sears pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+16
48.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
48.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
48.4%
Jack Sears pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+10
48.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 48Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-2
46.0%
Jack Sears sacked by Merlin Robertson for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
45.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 49 yds , N'Keal Harry returns for no gain to the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 4:5653% → 70%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
47.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
47.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+9
47.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 9 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
46.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Isaiah FloydSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
46.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 9 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+4
46.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
45.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
45.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
43.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
41.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
41.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+49
29.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 49 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1734% → 32%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
33.5%
Jack Sears pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
33.3%
Jack Sears run for no gain to the USC 22Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+3
32.7%
Jack Sears run for 3 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
32.1%
Reid Budrovich punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArzSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3472% → 76%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
28.3%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+15
28.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
27.1%
Isaiah Floyd run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
26.6%
Isaiah Floyd run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
23.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 4
OWN 40
-3
23.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 47 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 1:3329% → 39%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
28.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Targeting (Khaylan Kearse-Thomas ejected) to the USC 25 for a 1ST down, Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
28.8%
Jack Sears run for 22 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
30.6%
Jack Sears pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
30.5%
Jack Sears pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+15
29.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
30.6%
Jack Sears pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
30.3%
Jack Sears pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 12 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+6
30.1%
Jack Sears pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
29.9%
Jack Sears pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 3 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.8%
Jack Sears pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 4:0337% → 55%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
36.6%
Jack Sears pass complete to Josh Falo for 15 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
37.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+18
37.1%
Jack Sears pass complete to Josh Falo for 18 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
38.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
37.5%
Jack Sears pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
37.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
38.4%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+22
38.2%
Jack Sears pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 14 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (8 Yards) to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
54.8%
Velus Jones Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
48.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 36 Manny Wilkins fumbled, recovered by USCSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
69.1%
Tyler Vaughns pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5035% → 33%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.6%
N'Keal Harry run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.9%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
66.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
67.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5067% → 65%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
66.9%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+4
66.4%
Jack Sears run for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 21
OWN 24
-4
66.4%
Jack Sears pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 25
OWN 20
+7
65.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:0536% → 41%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
64.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
62.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
50
+15
61.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.0%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the USC 35Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
60.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+3
62.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 3 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+50
59.5%
Brandon Ruiz 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2269% → 44%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
68.7%
Jack Sears pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 23 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
71.7%
Jack Sears pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
69.8%
Jack Sears pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+92
44.0%
Reid Budrovich punt for 37 yds , N'Keal Harry returns for 92 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0245% → 46%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
44.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+18
45.1%
Jack Sears pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 18 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
49.4%
Jack Sears run for no gain to the USC 49 Jack Sears fumbled, recovered by USC Jack SearsSimilar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
48.5%
Jack Sears pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+4
45.0%
Jack Sears pass complete to Josh Falo for 4 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
45.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 44 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3257% → 56%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
43.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 1
OWN 12
-1
42.6%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+19
45.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 19 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
42.0%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
42.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+1
44.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 1 yd to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
43.6%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0043% → 42%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+41
42.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 41 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
51.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
51.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+3
47.1%
Jack Sears pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 3 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
42.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:2866% → 72%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
33.9%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
34.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 10 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
32.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+28
30.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 28 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
27.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
27.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-2
26.2%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 36Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
28.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0735% → 30%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
34.5%
Stephen Carr run for 9 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+1
35.3%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
34.7%
Jack Sears pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-2
37.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 24Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
33.2%
Jack Sears run for no gain to the USC 24Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
29.8%
Reid Budrovich punt for 42 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2278% → 96%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
22.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+8
19.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
18.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
15.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+45
3.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 45 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:373% → 20%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
3.2%
Jack Sears pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 12 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.5%
Jack Sears pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
3.4%
Jack Sears pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+52
19.7%
Jack Sears pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 52 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:24
Tyler Vaughns pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)
+20.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.7
TD · Q3 10:49
Velus Jones Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Brown KICK)
+16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com