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ASU

Arizona State 29 at Oregon 31

ORE
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:12 · TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+19.0+9.50−9.5−19.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:03: Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 57 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK) — ORE win probability +8.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:50: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 22 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +14.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:01: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 25 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +19.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:06: Adam Stack 28 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +8.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:35: Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ASU win probability +23.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ASU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 6:09ASU 4th & 12 at ORE 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:09ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:14ASU 4th & 9 at ORE 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:29ASU 4th & 8 at ORE 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:29ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:32ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:03ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 28, down 15
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:31ORE 4th & 4 at ASU 38, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−1.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:54ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:53ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 25, up 15
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:38ASU 4th & 6 at ORE 11, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−6.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:38ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 39, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:17ASU 4th & 21 at ASU 19, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−2.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:27ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 46, up 12
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00ASU 4th & 25 at ASU 5, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:01ASU 4th & 3 at ORE 25, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−5.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:06ORE 4th & 7 at ASU 9, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−14.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:06ASU 4th & 1 at ORE 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−2.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−15.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:24ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:03ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:50ASU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:11ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:01ASU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:35ASU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.5%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:3662% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
61.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
61.5%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+11
61.5%
Justin Herbert run for 11 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
61.5%
Travis Dye run for 23 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
61.5%
Travis Dye run for 22 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
61.5%
Verdell, CJ rush for 8 yards to the ASU9 (Fields, Evan), PENALTY ORE false start 5 yards to the ASU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+9
61.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 9 yds to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
61.5%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
61.5%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.1%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 5:1537% → 37%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
62.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
62.5%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+14
62.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 14 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
62.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+25
62.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 25 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
62.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
62.1%
Isaiah Floyd run for 1 yd to the Oregn 12Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-8
62.3%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+38
62.6%
Brandon Ruiz 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
62.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
61.8%
Blake Maimone punt for 36 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
62.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
61.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
50
+2
61.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-1
61.6%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-5
62.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+5
62.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Isaiah Floyd for 5 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
62.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:4963% → 69%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
62.6%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
62.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 4 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+11
62.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 11 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+28
63.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 28 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
64.1%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+9
64.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 9 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
64.4%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
69.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 18 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
68.1%
Benjamin, Eno rush for 2 yards to the ASU26 (Winston Jr., L.), PENALTY ASU holding 10 yards to the ASU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+7
68.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
68.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
68.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Nick PickettSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 13
OWN 21
+5
69.2%
Sleep-Dalton,M. punt 26 yards to the ASU47, downed, PENALTY ORE roughing the kicker 5 yards to the ASU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
69.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 39 yds, downed at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
70.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
70.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Dominique HarrisonSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+8
70.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 8 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
71.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-1
71.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 49 Tony Brooks-James fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Darien ButlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:3131% → 31%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
68.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+1
68.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+34
68.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 34 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
67.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
67.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
68.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Troy DyeSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
69.2%
Brandon Ruiz 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
68.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+18
68.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 18 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
69.6%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
68.9%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-7
69.0%
Justin Herbert sacked by Khaylan Kearse-Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
67.4%
Blake Maimone punt for 33 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-12
70.5%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Austin Faoliu for a loss of 12 yards to the ArzSt 23 Manny Wilkins fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Manny Wilkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 22
OWN 23
+15
71.4%
OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
70.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
69.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
70.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
71.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 32 yds, downed at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2071% → 81%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.1%
CJ Verdell run for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
72.3%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
72.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 3 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+57
80.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 57 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
79.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 2 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
78.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
78.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
79.5%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0282% → 82%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
81.7%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+7
81.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 7 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-5
80.8%
OREGON Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+10
80.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 10 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+50
81.7%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Aashari Crosswell return for 50 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
67.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frank Darby for 22 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 0:3973% → 83%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
73.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
73.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson III, broken up by Kobe WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+34
73.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 34 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
75.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Justin Collins for 22 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.0%
Jaylon Redd run for 8 yds for a TD (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
80.5%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
81.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
81.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
81.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+26
81.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 54 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 26 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
83.9%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
83.4%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
84.1%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
84.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
83.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Chase LucasSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
82.7%
Blake Maimone punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank Darby, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 1 yd to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
84.0%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ASU36, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
82.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
83.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
83.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+8
84.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+3
83.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 47 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 3 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
87.0%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-3
87.0%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+5
86.3%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Redd, Jaylon, PENALTY ASU offside defense 5 yards to the ORE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+5
86.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Blake Maimone punt for 37 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2715% → 16%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
84.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+31
85.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 31 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
82.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+5
82.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
84.5%
Wilkins, Manny pass complete to Harry, N'Keal for 6 yards to the ORE46 (Winston Jr., L.;Pickett, Nick), PENALTY ASU illegal motion 5 yards to the ASU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
82.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 14Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
82.5%
Isaiah Floyd run for 3 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
83.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Brandon Aiyuk, broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
83.6%
Brandon Ruiz 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.7%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
86.9%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
87.5%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
86.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell, broken up by Kobe WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
86.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 41 yds , N'Keal Harry returns for no gain to the ArzSt 39 OREGON Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
85.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Gary BakerSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
85.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-6
86.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Gus Cumberlander for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 21
OWN 19
+8
86.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 49 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 8 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
89.2%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
89.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
88.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to CJ VerdellSimilar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
88.1%
Blake Maimone punt for 34 yds, fair catch by N'Keal Harry at the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:5014% → 12%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
86.1%
Benjamin, Eno rush for 2 yards to the ASU22 (Pickett, Nick), PENALTY ASU holding 10 yards to the ASU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+1
86.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 11
0
86.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 11
-6
87.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Gus Cumberlander for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 25
OWN 5
0
87.6%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 47 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for no gain to the Oregn 47 Ugochukwu Amadi fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Nick RalstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 3:0415% → 34%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
84.9%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 46 Manny Wilkins fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Manny Wilkins , return for 2 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
85.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+14
85.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 14 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
83.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-2
83.3%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
84.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+25
65.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 25 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5579% → 87%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
79.3%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
80.1%
CJ Verdell run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
80.1%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
80.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+4
78.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 4 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+28
87.3%
Adam Stack 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3113% → 43%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+28
85.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 28 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
82.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 12 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
80.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+6
80.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
82.6%
Nick Ralston run for 1 yd to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+16
83.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 16 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:4272% → 77%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
72.2%
Travis Dye run for 13 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
72.8%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
75.9%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
76.8%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Cam Phillips return for no gain to the ArzSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 30FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
65.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
66.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-2
68.4%
Manny Wilkins sacked by La'Mar Winston Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 45 Manny Wilkins fumbled, recovered by Oregn Gus Cumberlander , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 31END OF GAME
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:5082% → 80%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
82.1%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
82.2%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
82.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
85.1%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-6
84.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 15
OPP 37
-6
80.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:35
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-23.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.6
TD · Q4 11:01
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 25 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com