Try the model
ASU

Arizona State 17 at BYU 27

BYU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 18 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:54: Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 34 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK) — BYU win probability +8.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:40: Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 15 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK) — BYU win probability +8.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:42: Daniyel Ngata run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +15.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:40: Cristian Zendejas 40 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +3.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:19: Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BYU win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:23BYU 4th & 13 at BYU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:06ASU 4th & 6 at BYU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:59BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:29BYU 4th & 13 at BYU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:13ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:05BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:58BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−2.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:40ASU 4th & 18 at BYU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−3.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−9.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:34BYU 4th & 17 at ASU 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−2.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:37ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−3.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:23BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:10ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:54BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:40BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:42ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:19BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:2735% → 35%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
34.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 9 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-1
34.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
35.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4365% → 65%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.3%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
35.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
35.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 21 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
35.9%
Rachaad White run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-2
36.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+58
37.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Andre Johnson for 58 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.5%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:3936% → 36%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
35.9%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Isaac Rex) to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+2
36.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+5
36.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 51 yds , LV Bunkley-Shelton returns for 5 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4764% → 63%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
36.4%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+13
36.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 13 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for no gain to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
36.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+9
36.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 9 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-5
37.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (Curtis Hodges) to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
37.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 yds, downed at the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4638% → 38%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
37.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
37.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+1
37.5%
Masen Wake run for 1 yd to the BYU 2Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
37.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 50 yds, downed at the ArzSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2563% → 61%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
37.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 11 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
37.5%
Rachaad White run for 9 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
37.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+1
38.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 14
OPP 36
-2
37.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Keenan Pili for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 16
OPP 38
0
38.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2340% → 39%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
39.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
39.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-9
39.9%
Jaren Hall sacked by D.J. Davidson and Michael Matus for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 17Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
39.3%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 83 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8INT
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:0060% → 62%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
39.6%
Rachaad White run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
39.4%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
39.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 6 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
38.9%
BYU Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
39.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 5 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
39.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 1 yd to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
50
+29
38.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 29 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
38.4%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
38.4%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Max Tooley return for no gain to the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:4642% → 53%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
42.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 9 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-11
43.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 30 BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Neil Pau'u) to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+31
42.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 31 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
44.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+20
44.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 20 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
53.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 34 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1749% → 45%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
50.9%
Rachaad White run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-1
51.6%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
54.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+51
55.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 51 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:2055% → 66%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+34
54.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 34 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
56.8%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
56.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+11
56.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 11 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
57.2%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
57.3%
Jaren Hall run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
57.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
66.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 15 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4835% → 34%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
64.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+16
65.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 16 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
64.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-11
63.2%
Jayden Daniels sacked by TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the BYU 42 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
66.2%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Malik Moore return for no gain to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:1467% → 74%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
67.0%
Neil Pau'u run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Merlin Robertson) to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
68.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
69.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
70.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chase Lucas) to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+2
71.4%
Puka Nacua run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
72.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-5
72.9%
Jaren Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
74.4%
Jaren Hall pass intercepted, touchback. Jack Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.9%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4573% → 72%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
72.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
73.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
73.2%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
71.9%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5527% → 42%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
72.6%
Rachaad White run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
72.3%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+6
75.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 6 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+8
75.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
74.9%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+12
75.0%
Daniyel Ngata run for 12 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
75.0%
Daniyel Ngata run for 26 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
74.0%
Daniyel Ngata run for 3 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
58.5%
Daniyel Ngata run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1967% → 65%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
67.3%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
66.2%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
65.3%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 41 yds , LV Bunkley-Shelton returns for no gain to the ArzSt 35 LV Bunkley-Shelton fumbled, recovered by ArzSt LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:4936% → 36%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
64.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for 21 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
61.3%
Daniyel Ngata run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
61.8%
Daniyel Ngata run for 6 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+10
62.2%
Rachaad White run for 10 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
60.4%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-5
60.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (Jayden Daniels) to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+2
61.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for 2 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+11
64.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 11 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
62.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Stivers) to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 20
OPP 24
-5
63.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Ben Scott) to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 25
OPP 29
0
64.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Curtis HodgesSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 25
OPP 29
0
64.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 25
OPP 29
+7
68.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 7 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+40
64.5%
Cristian Zendejas 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19INT
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:0664% → 72%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
64.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
63.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 17 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
67.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+28
68.6%
Jaren Hall run for 28 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-60
72.1%
Jaren Hall pass intercepted Merlin Robertson return for 60 yds to the BYU 15 Merlin Robertson fumbled, recovered by BYU Tyler AllgeierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:2667% → 68%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
66.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 7 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+18
67.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Omarr Norman-Lott) to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
69.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 3 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
70.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
71.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+8
71.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
73.7%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+1
73.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 1 yd to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-7
72.2%
Jaren Hall sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 17
OPP 37
0
67.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 32 yds, fair catch by LV Bunkley-Shelton at the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21FUMBLE
11 plays · 9 yds · 4:4331% → 26%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
69.4%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 9
0
70.1%
Rachaad White run for no gain to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 9
-4
71.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (Henry Hattis) to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 5
-2
71.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Andre Johnson) to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+17
71.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 17 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
68.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
69.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Dohnovan West) to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-5
70.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Henry Hattis) to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 16
OWN 14
-8
71.1%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Pepe Tanuvasa for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 24
OWN 6
+8
73.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 8 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 16
OWN 14
-4
73.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 59 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 23 Hobbs Nyberg fumbled, recovered by BYUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:0079% → 97%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
78.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 17 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
82.5%
Jaren Hall run for 7 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
85.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
86.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+16
88.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Omarr Norman-Lott) to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
89.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+5
89.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
90.6%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+13
91.2%
Jaren Hall run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:114% → 4%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
96.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 19 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
96.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Scott) to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+18
96.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 18 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+18
95.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 18 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:42
Daniyel Ngata run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
-15.5
TD · Q2 8:54
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 34 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q2 4:40
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 15 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com