2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreASU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:27 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 52 yds , Giles Jackson returns for 5 yds to the Wash 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 7:39: Rachaad White run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +17.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:00: Kamari Pleasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +19.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:46: Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +30.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 1:11: Rachaad White run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +55.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:03: Dylan Morris pass complete to Devin Culp for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WASH win probability +18.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 8:49ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snapGo for it59.1%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.3%average punt
- Q1 0:30ASU 4th & 12 at WASH 38, down 14Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it47.5%−0.324% to convertField goal47.8%38% to makePuntTheir call47.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:47WASH 4th & 11 at WASH 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snapGo for it54.6%−2.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.8%average punt
- Q2 8:18ASU 4th & 2 at WASH 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.0%48% to convertField goal39.2%−1.994% to makePunt31.7%−9.3average punt
- Q2 6:37WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 11, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.9%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.0%average punt
- Q2 4:07ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 48, down 14Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it35.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 2:38WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 9, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snapGo for it64.5%−1.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q3 13:27ASU 4th & 20 at ASU 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it29.8%−3.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q3 13:27ASU 4th & 20 at ASU 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it29.8%−3.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q3 11:06WASH 4th & 17 at WASH 36, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snapGo for it64.5%−3.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.2%average punt
- Q3 8:58ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 13, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it26.1%−2.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.8%average punt
- Q3 6:32WASH 4th & 9 at WASH 31, up 3Numbers favored punt by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 54.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.0%−2.931% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt56.9%average punt
- Q3 3:11WASH 4th & 1 at ASU 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.9%70% to convertField goal54.5%−5.440% to makePunt54.1%−5.8average punt
- Q4 11:49ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.4%−2.5average punt
- Q4 4:06WASH 4th & 9 at WASH 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snapGo for it70.9%−5.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%average punt
- Q4 2:30ASU 4th & 1 at WASH 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.4%−10.7average punt
- Q4 0:32WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.7%−6.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 10:49WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.8%97% to makeGo for two38.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:06WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.2%97% to makeGo for two47.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:46ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.6%97% to makeGo for two39.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:39ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.3%97% to makeGo for two42.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:00WASH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.5%97% to makeGo for two81.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:46ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.9%97% to makeGo for two25.3%−1.645% to convert
- Q4 1:11ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.8%97% to makeGo for two75.2%−0.645% to convert
- Q4 0:32ASU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%−0.297% to makeGo for two95.2%45% to convert
- Q4 0:03WASH Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick4.6%−4.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call8.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1TD10 plays · 60 yds · 4:0434% → 38%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
34.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 6 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
34.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
34.3%
Morris,Dylan pass incomplete to Odunze,Rome PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Harts,Willie) 15 yards from ASU30 to ASU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4763% → 61%
Q1 10:15
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-4
37.8%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Lovell,Spencer) 4 yards from ASU19 to ASU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+4
38.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 4 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+5
38.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 5 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+7
39.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 50 yds , Giles Jackson returns for 7 yds to the Wash 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3TD9 plays · 67 yds · 3:4339% → 48%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
39.1%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 16 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
40.2%
(08:12) Odunze,Rome rush for 1 yard loss to the UW 48, End Of Play PENALTY ASU Face Mask (Norman-Lott,Omarr) 15 yards from UW 49 to ASU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+8
41.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cameron Davis for 8 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+10
41.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 10 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
42.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 10 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 37 yds · 4:1854% → 49%
Q1 4:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
45.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 4 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
47.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 4 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
46.8%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Diesch,Kellen) 5 yards from UW 32 to UW 37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-6
48.3%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Voi Tunuufi for a loss of 6 yards to the Wash 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:1353% → 55%
Q2 12:47
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
54.7%
Race Porter punt for 45 yds, fair catch by LV Bunkley-Shelton at the ArzSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6DOWNS11 plays · 57 yds · 4:2947% → 42%
WASHDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3560% → 61%
Q2 6:37
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+1
60.8%
Race Porter punt for 61 yds , LV Bunkley-Shelton returns for 1 yd to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2139% → 35%
Q2 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
65.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Giles Jackson at the Wash 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2967% → 68%
ASUDrive 10TD7 plays · 70 yds · 1:4032% → 47%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
67.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 6 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
67.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 4 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
66.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 18 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST down pass incomplete for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
53.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 18 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11FG9 plays · 27 yds · 0:2262% → 65%
ASUDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2038% → 33%
Q3 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-10
63.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Bralen Trice for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 20
OWN 28
+5
67.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 52 yds , Giles Jackson returns for 5 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 20
OWN 28
+5
67.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 52 yds , Giles Jackson returns for 5 yds to the Wash 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:1865% → 66%
Q3 13:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
65.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 18 yds to the Wash 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
68.4%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 8 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+1
66.4%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 1 yd to the Wash 36Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
66.1%
Race Porter punt for 51 yds, fair catch by LV Bunkley-Shelton at the ArzSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5732% → 29%
WASHDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3871% → 71%
ASUDrive 16TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:1735% → 53%
WASHDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5756% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18INT3 plays · 1 yds · 1:0151% → 49%
WASHDrive 19TD10 plays · 46 yds · 5:0461% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD22 plays · 81 yds · 8:5720% → 45%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
78.3%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Carson Bruener) to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
82.3%
(10:19) White,Rachaad rush for 47 yards gain to the UW 00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:09 PENALTY ASU Holding (Diesch,Kellen) 10 yards from UW 47 to ASU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+18
85.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 18 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+9
86.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 9 yds to the Wash 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3071% → 74%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22TD8 plays · 56 yds · 2:4238% → 93%
Q4 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
7.0%
Rachaad White run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23INT TD6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3524% → 4%
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.8%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the Wash 34Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-37
4.6%
Merlin Robertson 37 Yd Interception Return (Cristian Zendejas Kick)Similar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
4.0%
PENALTY ASU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lucas,Chase) 15 yards from ASU35 to ASU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24TD7 plays · 63 yds · 0:235% → 25%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
4.9%
PENALTY ASU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jones,Jack) 15 yards from UW 37 to ASU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
5.7%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 20 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
7.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Devin Culp for 26 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Devin Culp for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 25END OF GAME3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Rachaad White run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
-55
TD · Q4 5:46
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
-30.5
TD · Q3 0:00
Kamari Pleasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+19