App State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2062nd
  Defense+0.0486th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.1%66th
  Defense37.0%92nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2853rd
  Defense+1.407th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0834th
  Defense+0.0570th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3481st
  Defense+0.0491st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.1%79th
  Defense42.7%90th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.1%31st
  Defense26.5%85th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1964th
  Defense2.4398th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.4%66th
  Defense26.9%99th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.1%60th
  Defense20.6%97th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what App State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ECU
2. L
   MIA
3. W
   ELON
4. W
   MRSH
5. W
   GAST
6. L
   UL
7. W
   CCU
8. W
   ULM
9. W
   ARST
10. W
    USA
11. W
    TROY
12. W
    GASO
13. L
    UL
14. L
    WKU

Bars above the line: better than expected for App State.

Players, 2021

1. Chase BriceQB381 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 81st of 219 QBs
   1.25WAR0.51 to 2.08
2. Camerun PeoplesRB132 plays · +0.232 pts/play · 47th of 387 RBs
   0.57WAR0.43 to 0.73
3. Nate NoelRB163 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 55th of 387 RBs
   0.55WAR0.39 to 0.73
4. Thomas HenniganWR59 plays · +0.216 pts/play · 36th of 474 WRs
   0.24WAR0.16 to 0.31
5. Malik WilliamsWR61 plays · +0.192 pts/play · 51st of 474 WRs
   0.22WAR0.14 to 0.30
6. Corey SuttonWR71 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 62nd of 474 WRs
   0.21WAR0.13 to 0.30
7. Daetrich HarringtonRB34 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 282nd of 387 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
8. Xavier SubotschP36 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 62nd of 101 punters
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares App State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  45045090th of 130Roster talent: 450, 90th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14414492nd of 130Recruiting: 144, 92nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  65%65%80th of 128Returning production: 65%, 80th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +10.3+10.335th of 130SP+ rating: +10.3, 35th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than App State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ULQ3 8:06 4th & 1 at UL 19, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
2. vs WKUQ4 14:53 4th & 17 at WKU 27, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.5 pts
3. vs USAQ2 6:06 4th & 1 at USA 48, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at ULQ4 5:06 4th & 10 at UL 24, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs ECUQ2 9:13 4th & 3 at ECU 4, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs MRSHQ2 3:54 4th & 13 at MRSH 36, down 6Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
7. vs GASOQ2 9:40 4th & 1 at APP 19, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs WKUQ2 2:55 4th & 4 at WKU 11, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

62nd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up App State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ECU
2. L

   MIA
3. W

   ELON
4. W

   MRSH
5. W

   GAST
6. L

   UL
7. W

   CCU
8. W

   ULM
9. W

   ARST
10. W

    USA
11. W

    TROY
12. W

    GASO
13. L

    UL
14. L

    WKU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at App State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.25
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.02
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.32

Game by game

• ECUW 33-19 vs ECU70% → 99%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +31
• MIAL 23-25 at MIA27% → 8%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts −2
• ELONW 44-10 vs ELON98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• MRSHW 31-30 vs MRSH70% → 97%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +26, Possession & field position +3
• GASTW 45-16 at GAST73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +32, Clock +1
• ULL 13-41 at UL62% → 0%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −55, Timeouts +1
• CCUW 30-27 vs CCU36% → 96%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +3
• ULMW 59-28 vs ULM95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +7
• ARSTW 48-14 at ARST92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +13
• USAW 31-7 vs USA92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +13
• TROYW 45-7 at TROY75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +31, Clock +1
• GASOW 27-3 vs GASO95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +9
• ULL 16-24 at UL58% → 2%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −2
• WKUL 38-59 vs WKU57% → 0%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −56, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from App State's side.

Closest call

MRSH 9-31 APP (2023) - App State dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.