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ECU

East Carolina 19 at App State 33

APP
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2021 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:38 · Chase Brice run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:50: Camerun Peoples run for 21 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +3.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:13: Chandler Staton 21 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +2.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:29: Chandler Staton 43 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +2.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:53: Owen Daffer 38 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +3.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:19: Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 18 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +10.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:36ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:28APP 4th & 5 at APP 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:24ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 43, down 8
    Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:13APP 4th & 3 at ECU 4, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:35ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:29APP 4th & 18 at ECU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:41ECU 4th & 9 at APP 35, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ECU 4th & 27 at APP 40, down 14
    Numbers favored punt by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    14.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:56APP 4th & 5 at APP 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:37ECU 4th & 5 at APP 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:53ECU 4th & 8 at APP 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:38ECU 4th & 9 at APP 42, down 18
    Close callPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:11APP 4th & 13 at ECU 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:48ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:04APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:26ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:24APP Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:50APP Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:19APP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:19APP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:10ECU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1730% → 30%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.5%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Jonn Young punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0070% → 70%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
70.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
70.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
70.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+3
70.0%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 48 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 3 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:5730% → 31%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
70.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
70.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
69.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 7 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
69.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 13 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
69.2%
Harris, Rahjai rush for no gain to the EASTCRLINA47, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Johnson, C.J.) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+63
68.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 63 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:5269% → 71%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
68.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 6 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
68.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 5 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
68.7%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
68.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
68.6%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+3
68.6%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
70.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 34 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5531% → 30%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
69.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
69.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Rahjai HarrisSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+4
69.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
70.0%
Jonn Young punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:2270% → 74%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
69.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-5
70.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+13
69.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 13 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
69.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 36Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+13
69.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 13 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
70.1%
Brice, Chase pass complete to Hennigan, Thomas for 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA36, PENALTY APP STATE holding (Hardy, Anderson) 10 yards to the APP STATE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+15
69.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
70.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+21
70.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 6 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Quan McMillian) to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
74.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 21 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:1727% → 26%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
72.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
73.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
73.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 41 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Avery Jones) to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+12
73.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 12 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
73.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
74.0%
Jonn Young punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8FG
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:0574% → 78%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
73.9%
Nate Noel run for 19 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
74.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 7 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
75.1%
Chase Brice run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
75.2%
Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+18
75.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 3 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Quan McMillian) to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
75.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+15
75.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 15 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
75.8%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+6
76.0%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 2
OPP 3
-1
75.7%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 4Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
78.3%
Chandler Staton 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2423% → 21%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
77.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
77.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
78.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
78.6%
Jonn Young punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 5:0279% → 83%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
78.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
78.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+18
78.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 18 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
80.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Milan Tucker for 20 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
80.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+8
80.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+7
80.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
81.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Miller GibbsSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
81.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for no gain to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-8
81.1%
Chase Brice sacked by Suirad Ware for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
83.4%
Chandler Staton 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11INT
13 plays · 35 yds · 2:2217% → 16%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
82.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 29 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
81.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
81.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 1 yd to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
82.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+12
83.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 12 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
81.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-8
82.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 18
OPP 31
-9
84.0%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Tim Frizzell for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 27
OPP 40
0
84.2%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted, touchback. Ryan Huff return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5385% → 85%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
85.0%
Nate Noel run for 19 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
85.8%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
85.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 4 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
85.9%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
85.0%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:5915% → 19%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
85.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
85.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 39 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
83.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
83.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-3
83.4%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+9
84.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
83.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
83.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
84.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
81.5%
Owen Daffer 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 0:1584% → 94%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+68
83.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 68 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
93.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 18 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FUMBLE
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:358% → 7%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
91.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 18 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
91.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 10 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
91.5%
Harris, Rahjai rush for no gain to the APP STATE43, PENALTY APP STATE offside (Harrington, Brendan) 5 yards to the APP STATE38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 5
OPP 38
-7
91.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Brendan Harrington for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+3
92.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 3 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
92.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
93.1%
Jonn Young punt for 37 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 5 Thomas Hennigan fumbled, recovered by AppSt Thomas HenniganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:2294% → 96%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
93.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 10 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
94.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Cooper Hodges) to the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+12
93.0%
Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+19
94.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 19 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
95.2%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah Foote) to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
95.3%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-2
95.4%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+3
95.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 3 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 8
OPP 40
-5
95.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
95.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:195% → 4%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
95.0%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Brendan Harrington and Tommy Dawkins Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+3
95.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+2
95.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 2 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
95.7%
Jonn Young punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 1:2697% → 99%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
96.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+46
97.1%
Nate Noel run for 46 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1899% → 99%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
98.8%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-20
98.8%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Ja'Quan McMillian return for 20 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:461% → 1%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
98.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 12 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+34
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 19 yds to the APP STATE 39 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Ross) to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
98.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 7 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+11
99.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 11 yds to the AppSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
99.2%
Ahlers, Holton pass complete to Calhoun, Shane for 6 yards to the APP STATE0, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Johnson, C.J.) 15 yards to the APP STATE21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
0
99.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Keaton MitchellSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+39
99.2%
Owen Daffer 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1499% → 100%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.6%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:471% → 3%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for no gain to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+15
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 15 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
99.4%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Hatfield, Jsi, PENALTY APP STATE pass interference (Jolly, Shaun) 15 yards to the APP STATE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SavageSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Rahjai HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+38
97.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 38 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2698% → 99%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.3%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-3
98.6%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-1
98.6%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:19
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 18 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q1 0:50
Camerun Peoples run for 21 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
+3.9
FG · Q3 8:53
Owen Daffer 38 yd FG GOOD
-3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com