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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreAPP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by PEASLEY, Andrew at WYO5 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:28: Andrew Peasley run for 9 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +6.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Michael Hughes 50 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +9.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:42: Tyrek Funderburk 18 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +21.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:31: Harrison Waylee run for 75 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +20.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:12: Timeout Wyoming, clock 02:12 — APP win probability +13.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 10:41APP 4th & 2 at WYO 8, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.7%54% to convertField goalTheir call40.6%−0.190% to makePunt40.0%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:33WYO 4th & 4 at APP 43, down 3Close callPunted · 59.1% before the snapGo for it59.2%48% to convertField goal58.9%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call59.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:00APP 4th & 11 at WYO 11, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snapGo for it41.2%−0.522% to convertField goalTheir call41.7%87% to makePunt39.2%−2.6average punt
- Q2 14:53WYO 4th & 16 at WYO 36, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snapGo for it53.2%−1.415% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.6%average punt
- Q2 9:20APP 4th & 1 at WYO 41, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.3%70% to convertField goal38.4%−1.932% to makePunt38.7%−1.5average punt
- Q2 7:40WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 43, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snapGo for it61.2%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.8%average punt
- Q2 1:09APP 4th & 3 at WYO 3, down 1Close callKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call39.6%−1.093% to makePunt33.8%−6.7average punt
- Q2 0:15WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 26, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snapGo for it49.1%−2.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.0%average punt
- Q3 14:00WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 32, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snapGo for it46.9%−0.652% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%average punt
- Q3 13:06APP 4th & 5 at APP 32, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snapGo for it53.5%−1.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q3 10:16WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 42, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snapGo for it43.8%−1.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q3 7:55APP 4th & 3 at APP 27, up 5Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snapGo for it57.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 6:13WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 41, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snapGo for it44.2%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.5%average punt
- Q3 3:43APP 4th & 8 at APP 18, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snapGo for it55.6%−2.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.2%average punt
- Q3 2:05WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 40, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it35.9%−4.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.4%average punt
- Q4 13:42APP 4th & 1 at WYO 48, up 5Numbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it66.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%−4.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:28WYO Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:42APP Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:31WYO Touchdown, down 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call32.4%−<0.197% to makeGo for two32.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAPPDrive 1FG12 plays · 67 yds · 4:1942% → 42%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
57.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
57.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 11 yds to the WYO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
57.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 8 yds to the WYO 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0858% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3FG12 plays · 87 yds · 5:3342% → 46%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
57.6%
Wyoming Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Shae Suiaunoa) to the APP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
57.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 8 yds to the APP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
57.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 13 yds to the WYO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+8
56.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 8 yds to the WYO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
56.9%
Joey Aguilar sacked by DeVonne Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 3:0755% → 53%
Q1 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
55.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 13 yds to the WYO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
50
-14
55.6%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Nate Johnson for a loss of 14 yards to the WYO 36Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
53.0%
Clayton Stewart punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · -2 yds · 0:1247% → 47%
WYODrive 6TD7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1357% → 61%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
55.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Alex Brown for 5 yds to the APP 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7DOWNS7 plays · 24 yds · 3:0841% → 42%
Q2 12:28
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
58.3%
AGUILAR, Joey pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN, Christan thrown to the APP50. PENALTY WYO Holding enforced 10 yards from the APP40 to the APP50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4061% → 60%
Q2 7:40
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
60.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9FG15 plays · 87 yds · 6:3140% → 50%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
60.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 9 yds to the APP 19Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
59.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 12 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 5
50
+6
57.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 6 yds to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5451% → 49%
Q2 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-6
51.1%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Shawn Collins and Montez Kelley for a loss of 6 yards to the WYO 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FG4 plays · 18 yds · 0:1551% → 60%
WYODrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0048% → 46%
Q3 14:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
45.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5456% → 54%
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
44.4%
Appalachian State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the APP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5046% → 44%
Q3 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
46.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 7 yds to the WYO 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:2157% → 56%
Q3 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
42.9%
NOEL, Nate rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the APP28 (GIBBS, Easton). PENALTY APP Holding enforced 10 yards from the APP22 to the APP12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+11
43.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 11 yds to the APP 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4244% → 43%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
44.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 5 yds to the WYO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3059% → 58%
WYODrive 18PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3845% → 39%
Q3 3:43
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-8
44.5%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Andrew Parker Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the WYO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 3:2362% → 67%
Q4 13:42
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
33.3%
Mitchell Lake punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Caleb Cooley at the WYO 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20INT TD4 plays · 15 yds · 2:0038% → 18%
WYODrive 21TD1 play · 75 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22MISSED FG22 plays · 55 yds · 9:2268% → 93%
APPDrive 23INT10 plays · 49 yds · 1:3394% → 98%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
5.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 12 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
5.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 11 yds to the WYO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
4.4%
AGUILAR, Joey pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for TUCKER, Milan thrown to the WYO0. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference enforced 15 yards to the WYO20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
11.1%
Kneel down by PEASLEY, Andrew at WYO5 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+88.9
TD · Q4 11:42
Tyrek Funderburk 18 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hughes Kick)
-21
TD · Q4 11:31
Harrison Waylee run for 75 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+20.5