Try the model
APP

App State 13 at Louisiana 41

UL
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2021 · Cajun Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:46 · Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 12 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense+19.7Score differential+14.4Pregame prior−5.1Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:13: Chris Smith 1 Yd Run (Nate Snyder PAT failed) — UL win probability +9.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:44: Chandler Staton 27 Yd Field Goal — APP win probability +4.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:11: Chris Smith 21 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) — UL win probability +13.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:19: Chase Brice 5 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick) — APP win probability +15.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:38: Montrell Johnson 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) — UL win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 5:58APP 4th & 10 at UL 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:10APP 4th & 3 at APP 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:12UL 4th & 10 at UL 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:55UL 4th & 4 at APP 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−1.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:44APP 4th & 4 at UL 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.5
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−9.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00UL 4th & 8 at UL 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:46APP 4th & 3 at UL 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−1.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:28APP 4th & 2 at UL 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:21UL 4th & 4 at UL 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:38APP 4th & 1 at UL 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.0%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:32APP 4th & 14 at UL 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:38APP 4th & 7 at APP 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6APP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:45UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:22UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:13UL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:11UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:19APP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:38UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:16UL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1238% → 42%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.2%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+55
38.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 55 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
38.7%
Chris Smith run for 7 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
39.0%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
39.3%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
39.6%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
40.0%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 3Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.6%
Levi Lewis 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:3959% → 58%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
41.2%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+9
41.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
42.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+12
42.1%
Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
42.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 18 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
42.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 14 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
42.5%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
42.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-5
43.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Jalen Virgil) to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+1
43.5%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
42.4%
Chandler Staton 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 2:2843% → 49%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
42.6%
Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+36
42.8%
Montrell Johnson run for 36 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+36
44.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 36 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
44.8%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
44.9%
Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+13
44.8%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Stephens Jr., John, PENALTY APP STATE pass interference (Small, Donte) 13 yards to the APP STATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.3%
Kyren Lacy 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4652% → 51%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
47.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
48.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-2
48.9%
Chase Brice sacked by Zi'Yon Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 31 Chase Brice fumbled, forced by Zi'Yon Hill, recovered by LaLaf Percy Butler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 2:0550% → 60%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
49.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 26 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
50.5%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.2%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.4%
Chris Smith 1 Yd Run (Nate Snyder PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5541% → 40%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
59.4%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
59.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+5
59.7%
Jahmir Smith run for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
60.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5462% → 62%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
62.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
61.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for no gain to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
62.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:1339% → 37%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+19
61.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mike Evans for 19 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
61.4%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+8
63.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-11
63.5%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Brandon Bishop return for 11 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9INT
16 plays · 55 yds · 7:1668% → 75%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
68.2%
Emani Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+6
68.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 6 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
68.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 10 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
70.4%
Levi Lewis sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 16
OWN 46
-5
69.3%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (Jalen Williams) to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 21
OWN 41
+22
69.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 22 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
70.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 5 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+1
71.3%
Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
71.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael JeffersonSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+14
70.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 14 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
73.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 12 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-5
74.6%
Johnson, Montrell rush for no gain to the APP STATE5, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE illegal formation 5 yards to the APP STATE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
74.4%
Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.7%
Levi Lewis pass intercepted, touchback. Steven Jones Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 2:4528% → 34%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
71.7%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the AppSt 21Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
72.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
72.0%
Brice, Chase pass incomplete to Sutton, Corey, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Garror, Eric) 15 yards to the APP STATE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APP STATE.Similar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
71.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+25
72.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 10 yds to the ULLAFAYTTE 45 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Lorenzo McCaskill) to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
68.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Mike EvansSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
69.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 14 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
68.5%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
69.1%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+3
70.4%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
65.7%
Chandler Staton 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:2974% → 74%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
74.1%
Chris Smith run for 17 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
74.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
73.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-3
73.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
73.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5327% → 27%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
72.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
73.3%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-21
73.4%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Eric Garror return for 21 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:4276% → 90%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
76.3%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 21Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+21
89.9%
Chris Smith 21 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:4013% → 25%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
87.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 2 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
87.8%
Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Failure to Wear Required Equipment (Dalvin Hutchinson) to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
88.1%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
88.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 2 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
88.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+12
89.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 12 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
88.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Mike EvansSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
89.1%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+3
90.0%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+8
90.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
90.4%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.9%
Chase Brice 5 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4781% → 82%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
81.4%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
81.4%
Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
82.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+5
81.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 49 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 5 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:4622% → 15%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
78.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
78.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
78.4%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
79.6%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
78.9%
Brice, Chase pass incomplete to Sutton, Corey, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Garror, Eric) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APP STATE.Similar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
77.9%
Chase Brice sacked by Kris Moncrief for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+5
81.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 5 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 14
OPP 36
0
84.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
84.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17TD
16 plays · 98 yds · 7:4686% → 99%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
86.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Pearse Migl for 10 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
86.8%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
89.0%
Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+26
89.9%
Montrell Johnson run for 26 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
91.3%
Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+13
91.8%
Chris Smith run for 13 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
91.8%
Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
92.0%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
92.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+5
92.2%
Lewis, Levi rush for 9 yards to the APP STATE16, PENALTY APP STATE offside 5 yards to the APP STATE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
92.5%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
92.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
93.4%
Levi Lewis run for 7 yds to the AppSt 3Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.0%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the AppSt 2Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.8%
Montrell Johnson 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
98.2%
Jahmir Smith run for 5 yds to the AppSt 39 Jahmir Smith fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Lorenzo McCaskillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 2:0799% → 100%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
98.9%
Emani Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+6
98.9%
Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+9
99.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 9 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.8%
Emani Bailey 26 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Emani Bailey) to the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Daetrich Harrington for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+43
99.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds , Eric Garror returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 39 yds · 6:03100% → 100%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
99.9%
Montrell Johnson run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Montrell Johnson run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
T.J. Wisham run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
99.9%
T.J. Wisham run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.9%
T.J. Wisham run for 1 yd to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
T.J. Wisham run for 4 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-1
99.9%
T.J. Wisham run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:19
Chase Brice 5 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)
-15.5
TD · Q3 13:11
Chris Smith 21 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)
+13.7
TD · Q1 0:13
Chris Smith 1 Yd Run (Nate Snyder PAT failed)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com