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APP

App State 48 at Arkansas State 14

ARST
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:38 · Xavier Subotsch punt for 44 yds, downed at the ArkSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior−27.5Home team on offense−10.7Score differential−5.7Garbage-time factor−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:15: M. Williams pass,to T. Hennigan for 34 yds for a TD, (C. Staton KICK) — APP win probability +0.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:18: L. Hatcher pass,to E. Stevenson for 7 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +2.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:18: L. Hatcher pass,to R. Painter for 20 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK) — ARST win probability +3.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:02: N. Noel run for 18 yds for a TD, (C. Staton KICK) — APP win probability +5.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:59: Camerun Peoples 27 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick) — APP win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:59ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42APP 4th & 2 at ARST 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:09ARST 4th & 12 at APP 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26APP 4th & 9 at APP 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:41APP 4th & 3 at ARST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:23ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:03APP 4th & 9 at ARST 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:38APP 4th & 6 at APP 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:12ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:14ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:16APP 4th & 1 at ARST 5, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:30ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 48, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:15APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:22APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:18ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:18ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:02APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:59APP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:01APP Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:388% → 9%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
8.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 5 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
8.4%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+13
8.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 13 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
8.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
8.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
8.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
8.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds, downed at the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:3691% → 91%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
8.9%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
9.0%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+13
9.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 13 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
9.3%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+21
9.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 21 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
9.5%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-3
9.8%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+4
10.1%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+2
10.4%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
9.5%
M. Williams pass,to T. Hennigan for 34 yds for a TD, (C. Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4410% → 9%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
9.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
9.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 8 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-47
9.1%
Steven Jones Jr. 47 Yd Interception Return (Chandler Staton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:539% → 10%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
9.1%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
9.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jack Combs for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+17
9.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Adam Jones for 17 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
9.4%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 16 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
9.5%
LANG, Johnnie rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the APP33 (JACKSON, D'Marco;TUCKER, Milan). PENALTY ASU Personal Foul on COMBS, Jack enforced 15 yards from the APP33 to the APP48, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with 6 yards on the play [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 19
OPP 48
0
9.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+7
9.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jack Combs for 7 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
9.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for no gain to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
9.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4391% → 91%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
9.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+6
9.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
9.4%
Chase Brice sacked by Joe Ozougwu for 0 yards to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
9.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang Jr. at the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:0110% → 13%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
9.7%
Alan Lamar run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
9.8%
Layne Hatcher sacked for 0 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 25
OWN 30
+15
9.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jordon Earle) to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
10.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 16 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
10.1%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the AppSt 23Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
10.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
10.1%
HATCHER, Layne pass to the left incomplete intended for STEVENSON, Emmanual broken up by CONE, Madison at the APP4. PENALTY APP Pass Interference on CONE, Madison enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the APP8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
10.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 2 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
10.4%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 7Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
12.8%
L. Hatcher pass,to E. Stevenson for 7 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1988% → 88%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
12.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 5 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
12.1%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
12.0%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
12.2%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
12.2%
Chase Brice pass intercepted return for no gain to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:2014% → 19%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
14.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+18
14.4%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 18 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
14.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
14.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+20
18.5%
L. Hatcher pass,to R. Painter for 20 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5584% → 88%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
16.5%
Camerun Peoples run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
16.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+7
16.2%
Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
16.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
16.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+2
16.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+5
17.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
12.1%
N. Noel run for 18 yds for a TD, (C. Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1314% → 14%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
14.0%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
13.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+9
13.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+1
13.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 1 yd to the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:5586% → 87%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
13.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
13.3%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
13.3%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
13.4%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
12.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
12.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 13 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
12.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+17
12.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 17 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
12.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-5
12.3%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+1
12.7%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
12.8%
Chandler Staton 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:0186% → 86%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
13.8%
Nate Noel run for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
13.5%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
13.3%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
13.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
14.1%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 44 yds, downed at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0814% → 13%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
13.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
13.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Nick Hampton for 0 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
13.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
12.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 55 yds , returns for no gain to the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:1786% → 86%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
13.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
13.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+15
14.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 15 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
13.5%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
13.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+13
14.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 13 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
13.8%
Chase Brice run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
13.6%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+8
13.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
13.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Thomas Hennigan) to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 25
OPP 29
+19
14.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:458% → 8%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Nick Hampton for 0 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
8.1%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Tyler Bird for 0 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+2
8.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
8.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:1093% → 98%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
6.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
6.4%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+20
6.4%
Nate Noel run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
6.0%
BRICE, Chase pass to the left complete for 4 yards to DAVIS, Dashaun caught at the ASU27 and advanced to the ASU21 (BLACKWELL, Denzel). PENALTY APP Holding on SUTTON, Corey enforced 10 yards from the ASU25 to the ASU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
6.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+8
6.2%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+27
1.9%
Camerun Peoples 27 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:393% → 2%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.6%
HATCHER, Layne pass to the left incomplete intended for COMBS, Jack thrown to the ASU35. PENALTY APP Targeting on TUCKER, Milan enforced 15 yards from the ASU25 to the ASU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
2.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
2.7%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+14
2.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 14 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
2.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+11
2.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jack Combs for 11 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
2.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-22
2.6%
Wyatt Begeal run for a loss of 22 yards to the AppSt 32Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 28
OPP 32
0
2.1%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted return for no gain to the AppSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FG
17 plays · 92 yds · 8:3698% → 100%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
1.8%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+7
1.7%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
1.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 17Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
1.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 8 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+5
1.6%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
1.4%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
1.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
1.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 4 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
1.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
1.1%
BRICE, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN, Christan broken up by HARRIS, Kenneth at the ASU9. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on HARRIS, Kenneth enforced 15 yards to the ASU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
1.1%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+14
1.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 14 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
1.0%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-1
0.9%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+6
0.5%
Anderson Castle run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+22
0.2%
Chandler Staton 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
0.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-34
0.1%
Steven Jones Jr. 34 Yd Interception Return (Chandler Staton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Josh Edwards run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.1%
Wyatt Begeal run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+23
0.1%
Wyatt Begeal run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
0.1%
Josh Edwards run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-5
0.1%
Wyatt Begeal run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+11
0.1%
Wyatt Begeal run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+2
0.1%
Wyatt Begeal run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:02
N. Noel run for 18 yds for a TD, (C. Staton KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q3 2:59
Camerun Peoples 27 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)
-4.4
TD · Q2 10:18
L. Hatcher pass,to R. Painter for 20 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com