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ULM

UL Monroe 28 at App State 59

APP
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:52 · Xavier Subotsch punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+26.3Blowout margin+12.9Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:08: Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — ULM win probability +0.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:26: Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 16 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:08: Chase Brice pass complete to Caleb Spurlin for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:27: Camerun Peoples run for 26 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 7:11: Chase Brice pass complete to Caleb Spurlin for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 10 of 10ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:49APP 4th & 5 at ULM 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:38ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:02APP 4th & 2 at ULM 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:15APP 4th & 4 at ULM 39, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44ULM 4th & 4 at APP 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:27APP 4th & 4 at ULM 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:25ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:20ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 28, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:55APP 4th & 1 at APP 42, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:10APP 4th & 7 at APP 28, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:45APP 4th & 1 at ULM 18, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:05APP 4th & 9 at ULM 14, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:05ULM 4th & 2 at APP 20, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:49APP 4th & 8 at APP 38, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:31ULM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:52APP 4th & 12 at APP 24, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:08APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:26APP Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:08APP Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:27APP Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:11APP Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00APP Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:26ULM Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:1195% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.1%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
95.1%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
95.1%
Nate Noel run for 10 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
95.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
95.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-1
95.1%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
95.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+4
94.4%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:116% → 6%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
94.4%
Charlie Norman run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
94.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Charlie Norman for 1 yd to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
94.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+11
94.1%
Devyn McCormick punt for 42 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 11 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:3094% → 94%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
94.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
94.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for no gain to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
94.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
94.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 1
50
+38
94.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 38 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
94.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
94.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
93.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.7%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28 run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:3694% → 95%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
94.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 1 yd to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+5
94.0%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+2
93.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+4
93.8%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
94.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 16 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.2%
Chandler Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0795% → 96%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.9%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
94.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 3 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
94.8%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+29
94.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 29 yds to the LaMon 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
94.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Caleb Spurlin for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:244% → 4%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
96.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 12 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
96.0%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
96.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
96.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+15
96.2%
ROGERS, Chandler pass to the right incomplete intended for KNIGHT, Boogie broken up by CONE, Madison at the APP45. PENALTY APP Roughing the Passer on JACKSON, D'Marco enforced 15 yards from the ULM49 to the APP36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
96.1%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
96.0%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+2
96.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 2 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+30
96.3%
run for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:1796% → 98%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
96.1%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
96.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 8 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
96.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 3 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
96.3%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+7
96.4%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
96.4%
Nate Noel run for 14 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
96.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+6
96.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+26
98.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 26 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:022% → 2%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.3%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
98.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
98.3%
Jiya Wright run for 7 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:1498% → 99%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
98.3%
Nate Noel run for 17 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
98.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 13 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+28
98.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mike Evans for 28 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
98.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 10 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Caleb Spurlin for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:511% → 1%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Jiya Wright run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
98.9%
Devyn McCormick punt for 46 yds , Malik Williams returns for 7 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
98.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
98.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
98.9%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:541% → 2%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.1%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+40
99.1%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Jevin Frett for 40 yds to the AppSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
98.8%
Abraham Alce run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 3Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.5%
Jiya Wright run for 3 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
98.9%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
99.0%
Jiya Wright pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:4999% → 99%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
99.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
99.1%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+4
99.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 14 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18INT TD
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:341% → 1%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
99.3%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
99.4%
Jiya Wright pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:251% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.5%
Andrew Henry run for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
99.4%
Jiya Wright run for no gain to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Jared Sparks for 5 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.4%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+22
99.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Zach Jackson for 22 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.4%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
99.4%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+24
99.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Jared Sparks for 24 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
99.3%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 13Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
99.6%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 13 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20FG
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+56
99.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 56 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
99.6%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+2
99.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 2 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
99.7%
Chandler Staton 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:390% → 0%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.7%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
99.7%
Jiya Wright run for 9 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.7%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
99.7%
Jiya Wright run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+14
99.7%
Jiya Wright run for 14 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
99.7%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-5
99.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (Malik Jackson) to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+15
99.7%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 15 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
99.6%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.6%
Jiya Wright run for 5 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
99.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-5
99.6%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass to the right incomplete intended for SPARKS, Jared thrown to the APP15; QB hurried by TAYLOR, Demetrius and EARLE, Jordon. PENALTY ULM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DAVIS, Aries enforced 5 yards from the APP23 to the APP28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.7%
Jiya Wright run for 8 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+17
99.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 17 yds to the AppSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.5%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the AppSt 3Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.5%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the AppSt 2Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Abraham Alce run for 2 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.9%
Jiya Wright run for 9 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
99.8%
Abraham Alce run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Jiya Wright run for 5 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
99.8%
Jiya Wright run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
50
0
99.8%
Charlie Norman run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 1
50
0
99.9%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
50
+17
99.9%
Nate Noel run for 17 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
99.9%
Nate Noel run for 26 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
99.9%
Jiya Wright run for 18 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Christian Wells) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 7
OWN 29
-5
99.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (KeSean Brown) to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27FUMBLE
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:200% → 0%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Jakyle Holmes run for 3 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Jiya Wright run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Jakyle Holmes run for 5 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass to the left incomplete intended for CAVIL, Coby thrown to the APP20. PENALTY APP Offsides on MCKNIGHT, DeShawn enforced 5 yards from the APP45 to the APP40 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
99.9%
Abraham Alce run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+17
99.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Coby Cavil for 17 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
Jiya Wright run for 5 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Charlie Norman run for 3 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+9
99.9%
Jiya Wright run for 9 yds to the AppSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.9%
Abraham Alce run for 1 yd to the AppSt 7Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Will Derrick for 5 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-98
99.9%
Abraham Alce run for a loss of 98 yards to the AppSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
100.0%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+8
100.0%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Eli Wilson for 8 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
100.0%
Anderson Castle run for 9 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+6
100.0%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Christian Wells for 6 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
100.0%
Anderson Castle run for 10 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:27
Camerun Peoples run for 26 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q1 2:08
Chase Brice pass complete to Caleb Spurlin for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 4:26
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 16 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com