Western Michigan

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2791st
  Defense+0.0976th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.9%74th
  Defense39.4%80th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2880th
  Defense+1.2723rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1774th
  Defense+0.0761st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4294th
  Defense+0.1283rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.1%71st
  Defense43.3%85th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.7%65th
  Defense31.9%57th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9450th
  Defense2.8061st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.2%89th
  Defense20.6%61st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.7%14th
  Defense2.7%81st

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Western Michigan allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   PUR
2. W
   IDHO
3. W
   MUR
4. L
   VT
5. L
   TOL
6. W
   BALL
7. W
   BGSU
8. W
   OHIO
9. W
   M-OH
10. W
    EMU
11. W
    CMU
12. L
    NIU
13. L
    AF

Bars above the line: better than expected for Western Michigan.

Players, 2014

1. Zach TerrellQB282 plays · +0.275 pts/play · 66th of 199 QBs
   1.45WAR0.98 to 1.91
2. Jarvion FranklinRB196 plays · +0.075 pts/play · 81st of 350 RBs
   0.28WAR0.09 to 0.44
3. Corey DavisWR76 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 54th of 469 WRs
   0.23WAR0.08 to 0.36
4. Daniel BravermanWR65 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 107th of 469 WRs
   0.16WAR0.08 to 0.25
5. J. SchroederP36 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 57th of 94 punters
   0.07WAR0.00 to 0.12
6. Andrew HaldemanPK9 plays · +0.380 pts/play · 95th of 114 kickers
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.09
7. Eric BoydenTE10 plays · −0.031 pts/play · 113th of 212 TEs
   −0.01WAR−0.02 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Western Michigan's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Western Michigan's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at IDHOQ3 8:03 4th & 1 at IDHO 1, up 16Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.7 pts
2. at CMUQ3 0:59 4th & 2 at CMU 2, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
3. vs OHIOQ2 6:13 4th & 1 at WMU 29, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. at BGSUQ3 8:06 4th & 3 at WMU 20, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. at AFQ2 8:31 4th & 7 at AF 38, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
6. at CMUQ4 2:27 4th & 2 at WMU 10, up 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. vs NIUQ2 1:08 4th & 3 at WMU 45, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at IDHOQ4 3:03 4th & 5 at IDHO 41, up 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

25th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Western Michigan's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 12 of 13 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. L

   PUR
2. W

   IDHO
3. W

   MUR
4. L

   VT
5. L

   TOL
6. W

   BALL
7. W

   BGSU
8. W

   OHIO
9. W

   M-OH
10. W

    EMU
11. W

    CMU
12. L

    NIU
13. L

    AF

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Western Michigan's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.46
• Clock+0.09
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.52

Game by game

• PURL 34-43 at PUR30% → 4%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts −2
• IDHOW 45-33 at IDHO49% → 97%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +50, Clock +3
• MURW 45-14 vs MUR88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +15
• VTL 17-35 at VT4% → 1%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −8
• BALLW 42-38 at BALL44% → 93%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +51, Clock +3
• BGSUW 26-14 at BGSU50% → 98%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +51, Clock +3
• OHIOW 42-21 vs OHIO77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26
• M-OHW 41-10 at M-OH67% → 100%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +38, Clock +1
• EMUW 51-7 vs EMU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +8
• CMUW 32-20 at CMU55% → 97%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +48, Clock +3
• NIUL 21-31 vs NIU72% → 5%Before kickoff +22 · On the field −68: Scoreboard −56, Clock −4
• AFL 24-38 at AF63% → 1%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −48, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Western Michigan's side.

Closest call

TOL 38-41 WMU (2020) - Western Michigan dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.