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WMU

Western Michigan 24 at Air Force 38

AF
2014 · Famous Idaho Potato Bowl · Dec 20, 2014 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:07 · J. Schroeder punt for 53 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 8 yds to the WMich 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense+10.4Pregame prior−5.6Score differential+3.2Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:12: Shayne Davern 55 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick) — AF win probability +7.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:32: Devin Rushing 1 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick) — AF win probability +10.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:32: Will Conant 31 Yd Field Goal — AF win probability +6.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:26: Corey Davis 35 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick) — WMU win probability +25.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:52: Dexter Walker 60 Yd Fumble Return (Kale Pearson Pass to Jalen Robinette for Two-Point Conversion) — AF win probability +25.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:45WMU 4th & 3 at AF 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:23AF 4th & 4 at AF 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:05WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:36WMU 4th & 8 at AF 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15AF 4th & 7 at AF 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:31WMU 4th & 7 at AF 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:58AF 4th & 2 at AF 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:32AF 4th & 1 at WMU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−8.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:47WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:48WMU 4th & 26 at WMU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−3.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:43AF 4th & 3 at WMU 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:07WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 4, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:32AF 4th & 8 at WMU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−7.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:23WMU 4th & 16 at WMU 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:26AF 4th & 7 at AF 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:22AF 4th & 23 at AF 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−6.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:31WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:48AF 4th & 6 at WMU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:49AF 4th & 1 at WMU 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:24AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:26WMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:12AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:32AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:26WMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:52AF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:20AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:16WMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.9%
Devin Rushing run for 5 yds to the AFA 30 Devin Rushing fumbled, recovered by WMich Rontavious AtkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0363% → 63%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
36.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
36.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q1 14:41
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+15
36.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Darius Phillips for 15 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
37.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-9
37.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the AFA 10 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eric Boyden) to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
37.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+12
37.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 12 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
37.4%
Andrew Haldeman 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1738% → 38%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
37.5%
Shayne Davern run for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
37.6%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
37.7%
Devin Rushing run for 1 yd to the AFA 38 AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
37.8%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 41 AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
37.8%
Will Conant punt for 45 yds, downed at the WMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:1562% → 61%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
37.9%
Darius Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 13Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 11
OWN 13
-6
38.1%
Zach Terrell sacked by Jordan Pierce for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 7Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 17
OWN 7
+11
38.6%
Zach Terrell run for 11 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+9
39.0%
J. Schroeder punt for 52 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 9 yds to the AFA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:3639% → 43%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
38.6%
Devin Rushing run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
38.8%
Garrett Brown run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
50
+9
39.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
39.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
39.6%
Pearson, Kale pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the WESTMICH44 (Ash, Richard), PENALTY WESTMICH face mask (Ash, Richard) 15 yards to the WESTMICH24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AIRFORCE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
40.1%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
40.3%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
40.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (Cleveland Smith) to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
40.2%
Devin Rushing run for 4 yds to the WMich 9Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+8
40.4%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the WMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.5%
Shayne Davern 1 Yd Run (Team Extra Point Attempt Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 47 yds · 3:4258% → 57%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
41.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 17 Jarvion Franklin fumbled, forced by Connor Healy, recovered by WMichSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+41
42.2%
Zach Terrell run for 41 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
41.2%
Dareyon Chance run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-1
41.5%
Zach Terrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 42 Zach Terrell fumbled, recovered by WMich Zach TerrellSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+2
41.8%
Zach Terrell run for 2 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+15
42.7%
J. Schroeder punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 10 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Austin Guido) to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1143% → 43%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
42.9%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
43.5%
Johnson, D.J. rush for 3 yards to the AIRFORCE40, PENALTY AIRFORCE holding 10 yards to the AIRFORCE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+3
43.2%
Kale Pearson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+2
43.4%
Kale Pearson run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+8
42.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Devin Rushing for 8 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
43.2%
Will Conant punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Daniel Braverman at the WMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4356% → 61%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.2%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Jarvion FranklinSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
44.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 13 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
43.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Darius Phillips for 6 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
43.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
38.6%
Corey Davis 47 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:0341% → 48%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
41.0%
Devin Rushing run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+14
41.1%
Kale Pearson run for 14 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
48.2%
Shayne Davern 55 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:1654% → 53%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
46.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 24 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
44.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
45.0%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
45.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick RobertsSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
46.6%
J. Schroeder punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:5448% → 64%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
47.5%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
47.9%
Devin Rushing run for 7 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
49.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
49.5%
Kale Pearson run for 6 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+1
50.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+8
49.4%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+38
52.1%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 38 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
53.5%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the WMich 13Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+7
53.9%
Kale Pearson run for 7 yds to the WMich 6Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
53.2%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
54.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the WMich 1Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.7%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the WMich 1Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.8%
Kale Pearson run for no gain to the WMich 1Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.1%
Devin Rushing 1 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:2937% → 33%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
63.4%
Zach Terrell run for 2 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+9
64.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 9 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
63.9%
Zach Terrell run for 3 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
63.9%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
66.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
67.1%
J. Schroeder punt for 42 yds, downed at the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2666% → 66%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
66.2%
Paco Solano run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
66.3%
Paco Solano run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 0:5539% → 32%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
50
-8
60.8%
Daniel Braverman sacked by Justin DeCoud for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 42 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Daniel Braverman) to the WMich 42Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 18
OWN 42
-3
63.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 21
OWN 39
0
64.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 21
OWN 39
-5
65.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WMich 34Similar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 26
OWN 34
+1
67.7%
J. Schroeder punt for 36 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0066% → 68%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
66.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
67.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
69.2%
Paco Solano run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
69.5%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
68.8%
Jalen Robinette pass incomplete to Garrett GriffinSimilar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
67.8%
Will Conant punt for 42 yds, downed at the WMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3132% → 28%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
68.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 9Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 9
-5
69.1%
Zach Terrell sacked by Jordan Pierce for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 4Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 13
OWN 4
0
70.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Corey Davis) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 13
OWN 4
+8
72.0%
J. Schroeder punt for 53 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 8 yds to the WMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:3072% → 80%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
71.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+14
72.5%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 14 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
73.2%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
72.9%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+6
72.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the WMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
73.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the WMich 11Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-3
74.6%
D.J. Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 14Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
74.2%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett Griffin, broken up by Justin CurrieSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
80.4%
Will Conant 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:5723% → 18%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
76.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick RobertsSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
77.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 9 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
76.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
77.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-5
78.1%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Willie Beavers) to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 14
OWN 38
0
80.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 14
OWN 38
-2
80.9%
Zach Terrell sacked by David Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 36Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
82.0%
J. Schroeder punt for 37 yds, downed at the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4485% → 87%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
84.7%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
85.8%
Kale Pearson run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+7
86.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
87.3%
Paco Solano run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
87.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
87.2%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
86.5%
Will Conant punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 1:5315% → 43%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
84.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
85.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+27
85.7%
Zach Terrell run for 12 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (Weston Steelhammer) to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick RobertsSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
84.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 13 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
82.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
82.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+13
83.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 13 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
57.4%
Corey Davis 35 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:5074% → 75%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
73.7%
Paco Solano run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-12
74.8%
Kale Pearson sacked by Nathan Braster for a loss of 12 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 24
OWN 12
+1
73.6%
Kale Pearson run for 1 yd to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 23
OWN 13
+11
75.2%
Will Conant punt for 41 yds , Daniel Braverman returns for 11 yds to the WMich 24 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the WMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:2536% → 11%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
63.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 10 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
63.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-60
88.6%
Dexter Walker 60 Yd Fumble Return (Kale Pearson Pass to Jalen Robinette for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:067% → 6%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
92.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 1 yd to the WMich 31Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
93.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+7
93.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Darius Phillips for 7 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick Roberts, broken up by Justin DeCoudSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24TD
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:1196% → 100%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-16
96.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-16 Yards) to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.2%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cleveland Smith) to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+3
96.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+7
96.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
96.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
97.0%
Shayne Davern run for no gain to the WMich 35Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
97.2%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+26
97.0%
Colton Huntsman run for 26 yds to the WMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.6%
D.J. Johnson 9 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 1:501% → 3%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick Roberts, broken up by Christian SpearsSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+8
99.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Fabian Johnson for 8 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+13
99.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 13 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
97.0%
Corey Davis 51 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:5598% → 99%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
98.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
98.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
98.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+4
98.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 35Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 37Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 14
OPP 37
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:26
Corey Davis 35 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)
-25.6
TD · Q4 9:52
Dexter Walker 60 Yd Fumble Return (Kale Pearson Pass to Jalen Robinette for Two-Point Conversion)
+25.6
TD · Q2 2:32
Devin Rushing 1 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com