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WMU

Western Michigan 48 at Buffalo 41

BUF
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:46 · Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the WMU 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:55: Blake Bosma 12 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Luka Zurak Kick) — BUF win probability +2.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 11:45: Luka Zurak 35 Yd Field Goal — BUF win probability +7.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:08: Al-Jay Henderson 68 Yd Run (C.J. Ogbonna Pass to Chance Morrow for Two-Point Conversion) — BUF win probability +2.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:59: Luka Zurak 37 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +4.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:43: Jaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick) — BUF win probability +3.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:32BUF 4th & 5 at WMU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11BUF 4th & 2 at WMU 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:45BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 39, up 6
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:22BUF 4th & 6 at WMU 26, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:28WMU 4th & 1 at BUF 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:46BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:16BUF 4th & 2 at WMU 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−1.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−9.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:04WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:45WMU 4th & 10 at BUF 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−3.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−12.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:59WMU 4th & 8 at BUF 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−13.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:10BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−1.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:02BUF 4th & 4 at WMU 4, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:46WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−8.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:38BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.8%
Messiah Burch run for 7 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+24
38.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 24 yds to the WMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
37.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 18 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-12
38.0%
Hayden Wolff run for a loss of 12 yards to the WMU 31 Hayden Wolff fumbled, recovered by BUF Kobe StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
37.9%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush middle , fumble by Henderson,Al-Jay recovered by BUF Henderson,Al-Jay, Henderson,Al-Jay rush (Wahlberg,Jacob). Al-Jay Henderson fumbled, recovered by BUF Al-Jay Henderson Henderson,Al-Jay rush middle , fumble by Henderson,Al-Jay recovered by BUF Henderson,Al-Jay, Henderson,Al-Jay rush (Wahlberg,Jacob).Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+24
37.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 24 yds to the WMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2662% → 61%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the WMU 26Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
38.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 11 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+41
38.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 41 yds to the BUF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
38.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
38.2%
pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
38.9%
Blake Bosma 16 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (L. Zurak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:4039% → 41%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
39.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+12
39.4%
Victor Snow run for 12 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+42
39.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Tadd Barr for 42 yds to the WMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
39.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the WMU 10Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
39.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the WMU 7Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
39.8%
pass incomplete to Jake OrlandoSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+26
40.9%
Upton Bellenfant 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5558% → 57%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.7%
Wolff,Hayden rush left (Murdock,Red).Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
41.7%
pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
41.9%
pass incomplete to Blake BosmaSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
42.8%
Ryan Millmore punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:2643% → 45%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
43.1%
Messiah Burch run for 15 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
43.2%
Burch,Messiah rush (Roberson,Damari), PENALTY BUF personal foul (Shepard,Caelan) 15 yards to the WMU25. Buffalo Penalty, personal foul (Caelan Shepard) to the BUF 45Similar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 25
OWN 45
+20
42.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 20 yds to the WMU 35Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
43.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 4 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-1
43.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 32Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+1
44.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the WMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 15:4362% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
37.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 13 yds to the BUF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
43.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 6 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+12
43.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 12 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
42.9%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 47Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+2
43.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 2 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+21
43.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 21 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
42.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 6 yds to the BUF 24Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+7
42.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 7 yds to the BUF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
44.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the BUF 1Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.4%
Jaden Nixon 1 Yd Run (L. Zurak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2848% → 50%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
48.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+7
48.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
48.3%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 8 yards to the BUF 24 Ogbonna,C.J. rush middle for loss of 8 yards to the BUF24, Snow,Victor rush , out-of-bounds.Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+3
47.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 3 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+12
47.4%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 12 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
49.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:5652% → 53%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
48.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
48.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordin Parker for 3 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+17
48.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordin Parker for 2 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, personal foul (Jalen McNair) to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
47.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 27 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
45.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Mareyohn Hrabowski for 14 yds to the BUF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
47.0%
Blake Bosma 14 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Luka Zurak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:4853% → 51%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
47.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the BUF 12Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
47.1%
pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
49.3%
Blake Bosma 12 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Luka Zurak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:2654% → 58%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
54.2%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
54.8%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+9
54.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 9 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
55.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 12 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
56.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 13 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
56.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 3 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
56.2%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-1
55.4%
Messiah Burch run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 26Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+26
57.5%
Victor Snow 26 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5446% → 46%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
54.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Mareyohn Hrabowski for 15 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
53.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 6 yds to the WMU 46Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
52.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
51.5%
Hayden Wolff run for 3 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
51.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
52.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
53.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth Womack, broken up by Marcus FuquaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:2360% → 62%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.4%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+21
60.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 21 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
62.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to JJ Jenkins, broken up by Bilhal Kone Buffalo Penalty, Defensive holding (Henry Tabansi) to the WMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:1459% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
59.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
59.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Jake Orlando, broken up by Tate HallockSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+27
58.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 27 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
61.7%
pass incomplete to JJ JenkinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
61.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
59.6%
pass incomplete to JJ JenkinsSimilar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+31
59.4%
Ethan Duane punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Messiah Burch) to the WMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:2542% → 45%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
58.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+10
57.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 10 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
57.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 14 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
54.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 19 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
53.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+14
52.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 14 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
52.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth Womack, broken up by Charles McCartherens for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Charles McCartherens) to the BUF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
52.7%
Lowry,Broc rush left (Murdock,Red;Folsom,Daishon).Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.7%
Jaden Nixon 2 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:2964% → 69%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
64.2%
Messiah Burch run for 31 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
67.4%
Messiah Burch run for 4 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
67.4%
pass incomplete to Messiah BurchSimilar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
66.2%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the WMU 26Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+3
64.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the WMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
67.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 12 yds to the WMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
69.2%
Taji Johnson 11 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3738% → 36%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
62.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 32Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
61.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
62.2%
pass incomplete to Mareyohn HrabowskiSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
63.9%
Ryan Millmore punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 15:0862% → 77%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
62.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 11 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
67.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 5 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+10
68.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 10 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
69.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
69.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
69.2%
Messiah Burch run for 2 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
70.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+7
70.4%
Lamar Sperling run for 7 yds to the WMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
70.9%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
76.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 8 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
76.8%
Victor Snow 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
76.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for no gain to the BUF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:0335% → 32%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
65.5%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth Womack, broken up by Charles McCartherensSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
65.9%
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 25Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+21
67.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 21 yds to the WMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+36
61.9%
Jordin Parker run for 36 yds to the BUF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
58.3%
Nixon,Jaden rush left (Souza,Tristan).Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
59.0%
pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
61.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Malique Dieudonne, broken up by Clevester Hines IIISimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
68.4%
Luka Zurak 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3779% → 83%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.3%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
81.5%
Al-Jay Henderson 68 Yd Run (C.J. Ogbonna Pass to Chance Morrow for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
83.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Chance Morrow for no gain to the BUF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22FG
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5938% → 29%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
62.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-6
62.8%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Kobe Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the BUF 27Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+13
68.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 13 yds to the BUF 14Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 3
OPP 14
-5
66.8%
Western Michigan Penalty, delay of game (DaShon Bussell) to the BUF 19Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
71.1%
Luka Zurak 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4982% → 83%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 6 yds to the BUF 31Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
82.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
82.0%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 31 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUF C.J. OgbonnaSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
83.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 4:2725% → 24%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
75.1%
Nixon,Jaden rush left (Murdock,Red).Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
75.4%
Jaden Nixon run for 4 yds to the WMU 19Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+6
76.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 6 yds to the WMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jordin Parker, broken up by Marquis CooperSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
74.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 9 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
72.1%
Jaden Nixon run for 6 yds to the WMU 46Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+54
75.7%
Jaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Luka Zurak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 1:3693% → 94%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
93.2%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 7 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+18
93.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 18 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete, broken up by Corey WalkerSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
94.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to JJ Jenkins, broken up by Nyquann WashingtonSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+30
94.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Chance Morrow for 30 yds to the WMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.8%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Donald WillisSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
94.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 3 yds to the WMU 4Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
94.3%
Upton Bellenfant 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26Uncategorized
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:1618% → 18%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
80.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
80.4%
Lowry,Broc rush left (Brown,Solomon;Dolac,Shaun).Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
82.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-82.3
FG · Q4 11:45
Luka Zurak 35 Yd Field Goal
+7.1
FG · Q4 8:59
Luka Zurak 37 yd FG GOOD
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com