Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 35 at Western Michigan 28

WMU
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2017 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:31 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:25: Shane Morris run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +13.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:28: Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK) — WMU win probability +9.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:13: Jonathan Ward run for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +16.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:50: Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +35.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:37: Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +44.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11CMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:51CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:57WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:51WMU 4th & 16 at WMU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:52CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:56CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:06WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:28CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:05WMU 4th & 1 at CMU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−1.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:29CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:20WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:46WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:27CMU 4th & 21 at CMU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−3.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:09WMU 4th & 3 at CMU 43, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−2.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:02CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:43WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:21CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:57WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:00CMU 4th & 2 at WMU 43, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.7 ptsPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−9.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−7.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:47WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−5.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:39WMU 4th & 19 at WMU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:42WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:26WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:00CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:05WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:25CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:28WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:13CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:50CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:37CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0357% → 58%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
56.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
56.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
56.8%
Reece Goddard run for 6 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
56.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+47
57.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 47 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4442% → 42%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.6%
Shane Morris run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
57.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 4 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
57.9%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
58.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 49 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 1 yd to the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5359% → 59%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
58.5%
Reece Goddard run for 1 yd to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+16
58.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 16 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
59.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
59.5%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
59.3%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to D'Wayne Eskridge, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
58.9%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 60 yds, downed at the CMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1241% → 40%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
59.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 8
-3
59.5%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 5
-2
59.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Clay Walderzak) to the CMich 3Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
60.1%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 9
OWN 3
-5
60.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 38 yds , Darius Phillips returns for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:1661% → 60%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
60.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-5
60.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Odell Miller) to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-5
60.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Odell Miller) to the WMich 48Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 16
OWN 48
0
60.7%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
60.4%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
60.0%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5240% → 39%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
60.6%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
61.1%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
61.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 60 yds, downed at the WMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:1861% → 68%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
61.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+20
61.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 20 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
61.8%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 15 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+39
62.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 39 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
63.0%
Reece Goddard run for 1 yd to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
68.1%
Davon Tucker run for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:1534% → 40%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
66.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 44 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
65.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
64.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+4
65.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 4 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+11
65.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (Caleb Bailey) to the WMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
65.1%
Shane Morris run for 8 yds to the WMich 3Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 2
OPP 3
0
65.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
60.4%
Shane Morris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5963% → 65%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
62.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 19 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
63.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
63.8%
Reece Goddard run for 7 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
63.8%
Reece Goddard run for 4 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
64.5%
Reece Goddard pass intercepted Sean Bunting return for 18 yds to the CMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4938% → 37%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
62.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
62.8%
Shane Morris run for 7 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
62.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
63.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4464% → 63%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
63.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
63.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-6
63.4%
Reece Goddard sacked by Mike Danna and Nate Brisson-Fast for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 26Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
62.7%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 58 yds, downed at the CMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3236% → 34%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
63.7%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 10 Romello Ross fumbled, recovered by CMich Romello RossSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 16
OWN 10
0
64.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+4
65.0%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
65.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 50 yds, downed at the WMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 6:0766% → 77%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
65.8%
Davon Tucker run for 8 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
66.8%
Davon Tucker run for 4 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
67.9%
Reece Goddard pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 8 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
68.3%
Davon Tucker run for 3 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
68.6%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 6 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
69.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
68.5%
Reece Goddard run for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+4
67.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
69.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
69.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+20
69.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 20 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2125% → 23%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
75.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-6
76.0%
Shane Morris sacked by Antonio Balabani for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
76.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
77.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds, downed at the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0578% → 78%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.1%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
78.0%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-1
77.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 42Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+4
78.4%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 45 yds , Mark Chapman returns for 4 yds to the CMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0520% → 20%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
79.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
80.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2021% → 35%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
79.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 14 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-17
78.8%
Ward, Jonathan rush for loss of 2 yards to the CENTMICH41, PENALTY CENTMICH face mask (Ward, Jonathan) 17 yards to the CENTMICH26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 27
OWN 26
+8
80.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+2
80.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+37
81.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 37 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
77.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Eric CooperSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+19
78.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 19 yds to the WMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
78.2%
Jonathan Ward pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
64.6%
Shane Morris run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2571% → 72%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
71.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 33Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
71.2%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 3 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
71.3%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
72.0%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 39 yds , Mark Chapman returns for no gain to the CMich 25 Mark Chapman fumbled, forced by Asantay Brown, recovered by WMich Asantay BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:0376% → 86%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
76.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+8
76.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
85.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:3317% → 15%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
83.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yard to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
83.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-15
83.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Cameron Cole) to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 21
OWN 16
0
84.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 21
OWN 16
0
85.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 34 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0588% → 88%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
50
+1
87.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+2
87.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+4
88.0%
Reece Goddard run for 4 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-3
88.0%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 33 yds , Mark Chapman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 7 Mark Chapman fumbled, recovered by WMich Caleb BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:3589% → 90%
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
89.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
89.5%
Reece Goddard run for a loss of 15 yards to the CMich 19 Reece Goddard fumbled, recovered by CMichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:1313% → 11%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
87.0%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+17
87.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 17 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
86.2%
Romello Ross run for 7 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
86.0%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
86.6%
Shane Morris run for 1 yd to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
86.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
87.2%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
88.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+46
89.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 51 yds for a touchback CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1792% → 92%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.2%
Davon Tucker run for 1 yd to the WMich 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
92.1%
Reece Goddard run for 3 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
92.1%
Reece Goddard run for 5 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.1%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 39 yds, downed at the CMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5910% → 9%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
89.8%
Shane Morris run for 1 yd to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+13
90.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 13 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
89.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
89.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
90.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 41 yds, downed at the WMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 2:0793% → 94%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
93.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+1
93.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+9
93.7%
Reece Goddard run for 9 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
94.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 13 yds to the WMich 43 Jarvion Franklin fumbled, recovered by CMichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:519% → 26%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
90.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+14
90.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 14 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
74.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0386% → 87%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
85.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
87.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-6
87.0%
Reece Goddard sacked by Nate Brisson-Fast for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+5
86.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the WMich 39Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+2
87.3%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 7 yds , Alex Briones returns for 2 yds to the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:4520% → 57%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+35
80.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 35 yds to the WMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
78.2%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the WMich 9Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
42.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 30FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4555% → 51%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
45.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
44.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-1
44.4%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
48.9%
Shane Morris punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:3859% → 55%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
58.6%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 11 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
59.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
59.5%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
57.5%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
55.3%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 44 yds, downed at the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 32TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
11.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 33DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:5122% → 14%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
22.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 22 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mike Danna) to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
21.2%
Reece Goddard sacked by Nate Brisson-Fast for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 14
OPP 46
0
17.1%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
15.1%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to D'Wayne Eskridge, broken up by Alonzo McCoySimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 14
OPP 46
-5
13.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Chukwuma Okorafor) to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 19
OWN 49
0
13.5%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 34END OF GAME
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:5595% → 96%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
5.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 14 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
4.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds to the WMich 26 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Robert Spillane) to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 15Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-2
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:37
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
-44.1
TD · Q4 5:50
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
-35.6
TD · Q4 9:13
Jonathan Ward run for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com