2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:39 · J. Schroeder punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dustin Creel at the EMich 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:58: Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 54 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +0.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:56: Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:27: Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 54 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman PAT MISSED) — WMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:13: Zach Terrell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:11: Dareyon Chance run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 14:48EMU 4th & 1 at WMU 45, down 7Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%70% to convertField goal6.8%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call6.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:58EMU 4th & 20 at EMU 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.49% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 29, down 27Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it3.0%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:50EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 23, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 5:11EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 30, down 41Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 46, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 5:39WMU 4th & 2 at EMU 14, up 48Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%56% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−0.184% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 4:03WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 23, up 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 5 at WMU 13, down 44Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.2%85% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:39WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 41, up 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 1:27WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 11, up 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:48WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:58WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:56WMU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:27WMU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:13WMU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:11WMU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:43WMU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:03EMU Touchdown, down 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 34 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+21
94.3%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 21 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD8 plays · 96 yds · 3:5294% → 94%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
93.9%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the WMich 9Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+29
93.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 29 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+16
93.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 16 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
94.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 54 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 7:58
2ND & 2
50
-10
93.9%
BELL, Reginald rush for 1 yard to the WMU49 (SPILLANE, R), PENALTY EMU holding (HANSEN, Lincoln) 10 yards to the EMU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-8
94.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Grant DePalma for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 32Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 20
OWN 32
0
94.1%
Owen Dubiel punt for 37 yds , Daniel Braverman returns for no gain to the WMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD2 plays · 69 yds · 0:3394% → 95%
EMUDrive 6INT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+17
95.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Cole Gardner for 17 yds to the EMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-2
95.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Ronald Zamort for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
95.1%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass intercepted Ronald Zamort return for no gain to the WMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD3 plays · 77 yds · 1:1595% → 97%
EMUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:273% → 2%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+29
97.6%
Owen Dubiel punt for 44 yds, downed at the WESTMICH 27 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, kick catching interference (Kenny Jones) to the WMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD6 plays · 58 yds · 2:4097% → 98%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+43
97.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 43 yds to the EMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:232% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD10 plays · 56 yds · 4:4997% → 99%
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+13
97.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 13 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-1
97.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 34Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+8
97.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.2%
TERRELL, Zach pass incomplete to DAVIS, Corey, PENALTY EMU pass interference (CREEAR, Willie) 1 yards to the EMU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Darius Jackson, broken up by Rontavious AtkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13TD8 plays · 69 yds · 3:1899% → 100%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.3%
Fabian Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 30 Fabian Johnson fumbled,Similar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
99.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Darius Phillips for 33 yds to the EMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
99.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
99.4%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Darius Jackson for 14 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-10
99.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Donald Celiscar for a loss of 10 yards to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+9
99.5%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyler Allen for 9 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.5%
Owen Dubiel punt for 25 yds , Daniel Braverman returns for 2 yds to the WMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16FG14 plays · 55 yds · 6:18100% → 100%
Q3 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+17
99.7%
Dareyon Chance run for 2 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for no gain to the EMich 46Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Dareyon Chance for 8 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 2 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-7
99.7%
Dareyon Chance run for 3 yds to the EMich 19 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Eric Boyden) to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 17
OPP 29
0
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Darius Phillips, broken up by Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+7
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Eric Boyden for 7 yds to the EMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17TD6 plays · 77 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-13
99.8%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Robert Spillane for a loss of 13 yards to the EMich 10 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, intentional grounding (Reginald Bell Jr.) to the EMich 10Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+25
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 25 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-21
99.8%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Andre Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 39 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Andrew Wylie) to the EMich 24Similar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 31
OWN 24
+76
99.8%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Bronson Hill for 76 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:03
4TH & 15
OWN 23
+52
99.7%
J. Schroeder punt for 52 yds , Dustin Creel returns for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19DOWNS13 plays · 63 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kray'shawn Brewer for no gain to the EMich 24Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+18
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kray'shawn Brewer for 18 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 12 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kray'shawn Brewer for 15 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-9
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. sacked by Robert Spillane for a loss of 9 yards to the WMich 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 25
+12
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to David Gibson for 12 yds to the WMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Cameron Thomas pass complete to Darius Phillips for 3 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-3
99.9%
Cameron Thomas sacked by Mike Brown and Pat O'Connor for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 41Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
99.9%
J. Schroeder punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dustin Creel at the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21FUMBLE6 plays · 80 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+29
100.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 29 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
100.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 15 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to David Gibson, broken up by Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+23
100.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 23 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
99.9%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 16 yds to the WMich 5 Reginald Bell Jr. fumbled, forced by Asantay Brown, recovered by WMich Joe CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 1:27
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
100.0%
J. Schroeder punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dustin Creel at the WMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23INT4 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
100.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Austin Stone for 8 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+16
100.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Cole Gardner for 16 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
100.0%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass intercepted Deontae Brown return for 9 yds to the WMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:11
Dareyon Chance run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+2
TD · Q1 1:27
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 54 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman PAT MISSED)
+1.7
TD · Q1 4:56
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+1.1