TOL
Toledo 13 at Western Michigan 14
WMU2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey play
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WMU · Drive 1PUNT · 9 plays · 3 yds
Q1 15:00
Robert Hammond III kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
20.5%
0.0
Q1 14:52
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 30
22.1%
+1.6
Q1 13:32
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 31
22.3%
+0.2
Q1 13:10
Broc Lowry pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 5 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST down
22.3%
0.0
Q1 12:53
Devin Miles run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 33
22.5%
+0.2
Q1 12:27
Talique Williams run for no gain to the WMU 33
22.3%
-0.2
Q1 11:54
Broc Lowry pass incomplete
22.3%
0.0
Q1 11:54
PENALTY WMU False Start (Franklin,Josh) 5 yards from WMU33 to WMU28. NO PLAY.
22.1%
-0.2
Q1 11:41
Ryan Millmore punt for 47 yds
22.1%
0.0
TOL · Drive 2INT · 14 plays · 55 yds
Q1 11:28
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the TOL 26
20.1%
-2.0
Q1 11:06
Chip Trayanum run for 7 yds to the TOL 33
20.1%
0.0
Q1 10:28
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST down
20.1%
0.0
Q1 10:24
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 10:24
19.4%
-0.7
Q1 9:55
Chip Trayanum run for 20 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST down
19.4%
0.0
Q1 9:34
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the WMU 38
17.9%
-1.5
Q1 8:46
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 6 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST down
17.4%
-0.5
Q1 8:23
Kenji Christian run for 4 yds to the WMU 28
17.8%
+0.4
Q1 7:52
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd to the WMU 27
17.8%
0.0
Q1 7:22
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the WMU 24
17.8%
0.0
Q1 6:50
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Jones for 3 yds to the WMU 21 for a 1ST down
18.3%
+0.5
Q1 6:24
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete
17.9%
-0.4
Q1 6:17
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the WMU 20
17.9%
0.0
Q1 5:32
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Joey Pope return for no gain to the WMU 7
17.9%
0.0
WMU · Drive 3INT · 4 plays · 23 yds
Q1 5:32
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 05:32
24.0%
+6.0
Q1 5:24
Broc Lowry run for 8 yds to the WMU 15
24.2%
+0.2
Q1 4:34
Broc Lowry pass complete to Cade Conley for 15 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST down
24.2%
0.0
Q1 4:11
Broc Lowry pass intercepted Andre Fuller return for no gain to the TOL 47
24.2%
0.0
TOL · Drive 4PUNT · 8 plays · 6 yds
Q1 3:56
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 03:56
16.9%
-7.3
Q1 3:47
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the WMU 46
17.1%
+0.2
Q1 3:27
Tucker Gleason run for 10 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST down
17.0%
-0.1
Q1 3:07
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the WMU 31
16.7%
-0.3
Q1 2:48
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete deep left to Vandeross III,Junior thrown to WMU00 QB hurried by Fisher,Kershawn PENALTY TOL Holding (Rhett,Cole) 10 yards from WMU31 to WMU41. NO PLAY.
16.7%
0.0
Q1 2:30
Tucker Gleason sacked by Joshua Franklin for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 48
16.9%
+0.2
Q1 2:04
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the WMU 47
17.0%
+0.1
Q1 1:22
Emilio Duran punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 5
17.2%
+0.3
WMU · Drive 5PUNT · 8 plays · 13 yds
Q1 1:15
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 8
21.6%
+4.4
Q1 0:47
PENALTY TOL Offside (Ray Jr.,Doran) 5 yards from WMU08 to WMU13. NO PLAY.
21.8%
+0.1
Q1 0:00
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 14
22.6%
+0.9
Q2 14:48
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST down
22.7%
+0.1
Q2 13:57
Broc Lowry pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 7 yds to the WMU 13
22.7%
0.0
Q2 13:38
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd to the WMU 14
22.7%
0.0
Q2 13:02
Devin Miles run for 4 yds to the WMU 18
22.7%
0.0
Q2 12:44
Ryan Millmore punt for 52 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 11 yds to the TOL 41
22.5%
-0.2
TOL · Drive 6INT · 10 plays · 46 yds
Q2 12:36
Kenji Christian run for 21 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST down
19.5%
-3.0
Q2 12:20
Kenji Christian run for 6 yds to the WMU 32
18.5%
-1.0
Q2 11:51
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the WMU 30
18.5%
0.0
Q2 11:13
Timeout Toledo, clock 11:13
19.9%
+1.4
Q2 11:06
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the WMU 28 for a 1ST down
19.9%
0.0
Q2 10:22
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 8 yds to the WMU 20
20.5%
+0.6
Q2 9:55
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST down
20.5%
0.0
Q2 9:24
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the WMU 14
20.5%
0.0
Q2 8:49
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the WMU 13
20.5%
0.0
Q2 8:10
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted John Peters return for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 8
19.2%
-1.3
WMU · Drive 7DOWNS · 12 plays · 65 yds
Q2 7:59
Broc Lowry pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 6 yds to the WMU 14
26.3%
+7.1
Q2 7:36
Ofa Mataele run for 5 yds to the WMU 19 for a 1ST down
26.3%
0.0
Q2 6:58
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Terence Marshall
26.3%
0.0
Q2 6:43
Broc Lowry pass complete to Ofa Mataele for 2 yds to the WMU 21
26.3%
0.0
Q2 5:57
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 8 yds to the WMU 29 for a 1ST down
27.1%
+0.7
Q2 5:34
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Malique Dieudonne
27.1%
0.0
Q2 5:21
Broc Lowry sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 26
27.1%
0.0
Q2 4:40
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 38 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST down
27.9%
+0.8
Q2 4:11
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Jalen Buckley
29.7%
+1.9
Q2 4:01
Broc Lowry run for 9 yds to the TOL 27
29.7%
0.0
Q2 3:24
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Malique Dieudonne
29.5%
-0.2
Q2 3:15
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the TOL 27
29.2%
+6.8
TOL · Drive 8PUNT · 13 plays · 29 yds
Q2 3:17
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 03:17
22.4%
-7.1
Q2 3:10
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the TOL 30
22.4%
-6.8
Q2 2:43
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Javon Brown
22.4%
0.0
Q2 2:16
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 11 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST down
22.6%
+0.2
Q2 2:06
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III
22.0%
-0.7
Q2 2:00
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the TOL 46
22.0%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 02:00
21.4%
-0.5
Q2 1:45
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 10 yds to the WMU 44 for a 1ST down
21.4%
0.0
Q2 1:44
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 01:44
21.2%
-0.2
Q2 1:41
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Kenji Christian
21.2%
0.0
Q2 1:31
Kenji Christian run for no gain to the WMU 44
22.5%
+1.3
Q2 1:10
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.
23.0%
+0.5
Q2 1:00
Emilio Duran punt for 31 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for no gain to the WMU 12 Keivin Boone-Nelson II fumbled, recovered by TOL James Roe
23.3%
+0.2
TOL · Drive 9FG · 8 plays · 1 yds
Q2 1:00
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 01:00
23.0%
-0.3
Q2 0:53
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the WMU 8
23.0%
0.0
Q2 0:30
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the WMU 6
23.1%
+0.1
Q2 0:30
Timeout Toledo, clock 00:30
24.2%
+1.1
Q2 0:30
PENALTY TOL False Start (Petersen,Jacob) 5 yards from WMU06 to WMU11. NO PLAY.
24.2%
0.0
Q2 0:30
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 00:30
24.2%
0.0
Q2 0:26
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacob Petersen
24.1%
-0.1
Q2 0:22
Dylan Cunanan 30 yd FG GOOD
19.6%
-4.5
WMU · Drive 10END OF HALF · 3 plays · -7 yds
Q2 0:22
Robert Hammond III kickoff for 50 yds
20.3%
+0.7
Q2 0:18
Broc Lowry pass incomplete
21.3%
+1.0
Q2 0:00
Broc Lowry sacked by Malachi Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 28
21.6%
+0.3
TOL · Drive 11TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
22.3%
+0.7
Q3 14:52
Chip Trayanum run for 12 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST down
21.5%
-0.8
Q3 14:52
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 14:52
20.0%
-1.5
Q3 14:28
Chip Trayanum run for 63 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
10.8%
-9.3
WMU · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q3 14:28
Robert Hammond III kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
11.0%
+0.2
Q3 14:22
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique Williams
11.3%
+0.4
Q3 14:05
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 27
11.3%
0.0
Q3 13:38
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique Williams
11.1%
-0.2
Q3 13:31
Ryan Millmore punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 32
11.1%
0.0
TOL · Drive 13PUNT · 7 plays · 16 yds
Q3 13:26
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the TOL 33
11.0%
-0.1
Q3 13:18
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 13:18
11.0%
0.0
Q3 13:01
Western Michigan Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Joshua Franklin) to the TOL 46 for a 1ST down
11.0%
0.0
Q3 12:43
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph
10.4%
-0.6
Q3 12:38
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Kenji Christian
10.4%
0.0
Q3 12:16
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 2 yds to the TOL 48
10.4%
0.0
Q3 11:46
Emilio Duran punt for 42 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 2 yds to the WMU 12
10.5%
+0.1
WMU · Drive 14FUMBLE · 3 plays · 13 yds
Q3 11:39
Ofa Mataele run for 4 yds to the WMU 16
11.0%
+0.5
Q3 10:59
Broc Lowry pass complete to Ofa Mataele for no gain to the WMU 16
11.0%
0.0
Q3 10:20
Broc Lowry pass complete to Cade Conley for 9 yds Cade Conley fumbled, recovered by TOL Andre Fuller
11.6%
+0.6
TOL · Drive 15FG · 6 plays · 16 yds
Q3 10:15
Kenji Christian run for no gain to the WMU 25
10.4%
-1.2
Q3 9:32
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 11 yds to the WMU 14 for a 1ST down
10.5%
+0.1
Q3 9:09
Kenji Christian run for 2 yds to the WMU 12
10.5%
0.0
Q3 8:30
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the WMU 9
10.5%
0.0
Q3 7:48
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip Trayanum
10.5%
0.0
Q3 7:43
Dylan Cunanan 27 yd FG GOOD
6.8%
-3.7
WMU · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · -7 yds
Q3 7:43
Robert Hammond III kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
7.0%
+0.1
Q3 7:35
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 27
9.3%
+2.3
Q3 6:56
Broc Lowry run for no gain to the WMU 27
9.2%
-0.1
Q3 6:24
Broc Lowry sacked by Malachi Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the WMU 18
9.2%
0.0
Q3 5:52
Ryan Millmore punt for 37 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 6 yds to the WMU 49
9.1%
-0.1
TOL · Drive 17PUNT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q3 5:39
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for no gain to the WMU 49
6.5%
-2.6
Q3 5:04
Kenji Christian run for 1 yd to the WMU 48
6.4%
-0.1
Q3 4:43
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip Trayanum
6.7%
+0.3
Q3 4:35
Emilio Duran punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 10
6.7%
0.0
WMU · Drive 18TD · 8 plays · 90 yds
Q3 4:24
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 24 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST down
10.3%
+3.6
Q3 3:56
Broc Lowry pass complete to Christian Leary for 15 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST down
10.3%
0.0
Q3 2:50
Devin Miles run for 2 yds to the TOL 49
10.3%
0.0
Q3 2:50
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass incomplete short middle to Williams,Tailique thrown to TOL34, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Fuller,Andre) 13 yards from TOL49 to TOL36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
10.3%
0.0
Q3 2:05
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 24 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST down
11.2%
+1.0
Q3 1:44
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 5 yds to the TOL 7
11.9%
+0.7
Q3 1:12
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the TOL 6
11.5%
-0.4
Q3 0:48
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke PAT MISSED)
23.3%
+11.8
TOL · Drive 19PUNT · 6 plays · -1 yds
Q3 0:48
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
21.0%
-2.3
Q3 0:30
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 22
14.6%
-6.5
Q3 0:03
Timeout Toledo, clock 00:03
14.3%
-0.2
Q3 0:00
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the TOL 24
14.3%
0.0
Q4 14:52
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacob Petersen
14.3%
0.0
Q4 14:45
Emilio Duran punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 35
14.5%
+0.2
WMU · Drive 20PUNT · 6 plays · 10 yds
Q4 14:34
Broc Lowry run for 7 yds to the WMU 42
19.4%
+4.9
Q4 13:54
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST down
19.1%
-0.2
Q4 13:18
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Jalen Buckley
18.4%
-0.8
Q4 13:00
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 45
18.4%
0.0
Q4 12:36
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault
18.4%
0.0
Q4 12:30
Ryan Millmore punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 18
19.2%
+0.9
TOL · Drive 21PUNT · 11 plays · 32 yds
Q4 12:30
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 12:30
14.2%
-5.0
Q4 12:20
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the TOL 22
14.2%
0.0
Q4 11:48
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 16 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST down
14.2%
0.0
Q4 11:11
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 41
13.5%
-0.7
Q4 10:35
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the TOL 47
12.4%
-1.2
Q4 10:00
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST down
11.8%
-0.6
Q4 9:13
Tucker Gleason sacked for a loss of 17 yards to the TOL 34
11.3%
-0.6
Q4 8:30
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the TOL 40
11.1%
-0.1
Q4 8:11
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 10 yds to the 50 yard line
10.2%
-1.0
Q4 7:30
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 4 yds to the WMU 17
10.3%
+0.1
Q4 7:30
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for 4 yds to the WMU 17
10.3%
0.0
WMU · Drive 22DOWNS · 15 plays · 67 yds
Q4 7:23
Devin Miles run for 8 yds to the WMU 25
16.0%
+5.7
Q4 6:55
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST down
16.1%
+0.1
Q4 6:26
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault
17.5%
+1.4
Q4 6:18
Broc Lowry pass complete to Aveion Chenault for 7 yds to the WMU 37
17.5%
0.0
Q4 5:59
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Lowry,Broc pass incomplete short middle to Chenault,Aveion thrown to WMU44 PENALTY TOL Personal Foul (Awls,Braden) 15 yards from WMU37 to TOL48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
17.0%
-0.5
Q4 5:49
Broc Lowry run for 7 yds to the TOL 41
16.8%
-0.2
Q4 5:22
Broc Lowry run for 8 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST down
17.7%
+0.9
Q4 4:47
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 7 yds to the TOL 26
17.3%
-0.4
Q4 4:25
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the TOL 24
17.7%
+0.4
Q4 3:11
Broc Lowry run for 5 yds to the TOL 19 Broc Lowry fumbled, recovered by WMU Broc Lowry for a 1ST down
17.9%
+0.1
Q4 3:01
Broc Lowry sacked by Martez Poynter for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 23
18.0%
+0.1
Q4 2:47
Broc Lowry run for 7 yds to the TOL 16
18.0%
0.0
Q4 2:16
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault
15.0%
-2.9
Q4 2:16
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 02:16
15.0%
0.0
Q4 2:10
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Baylin Brooks
15.0%
0.0
TOL · Drive 23PUNT · 6 plays · 1 yds
Q4 2:03
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the TOL 16
6.3%
-8.7
Q4 2:00
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 02:00
6.3%
0.0
Q4 1:56
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 14
6.0%
-0.3
Q4 1:56
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 01:56
5.4%
-0.6
Q4 1:46
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the TOL 17
5.4%
0.0
Q4 1:40
Emilio Duran punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the TOL 48
5.4%
0.0
WMU · Drive 24TD · 8 plays · 48 yds
Q4 1:33
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Talique Williams
10.8%
+5.3
Q4 1:30
Broc Lowry pass incomplete to Aveion Chenault
10.8%
0.0
Q4 1:24
Broc Lowry pass incomplete
10.7%
0.0
Q4 1:12
Broc Lowry pass complete to Talique Williams for 43 yds to the TOL 5 for a 1ST down
10.0%
-0.7
Q4 0:55
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the TOL 2
11.1%
+1.1
Q4 0:52
Timeout Toledo, clock 00:52
11.1%
0.0
Q4 0:52
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Lowry Run For Two-point Conversion)
63.0%
+51.9
Q4 0:52
Timeout Western Michigan, clock 00:52
64.1%
+1.1
TOL · Drive 25DOWNS · 6 plays · 3 yds
Q4 0:45
Hunter Smith kickoff for 65 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 33 yds to the TOL 33
64.3%
+0.2
Q4 0:36
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the TOL 34 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Anthony Boswell
54.5%
-9.8
Q4 0:30
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 2 yds to the TOL 36
54.5%
0.0
Q4 0:26
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip Trayanum
54.5%
0.0
Q4 0:19
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.
58.8%
+4.3
Q4 0:19
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.
58.8%
0.0
WMU · Drive 26Uncategorized · 1 play · -1 yds
Q4 0:00
(00:17) Kneel down by Western Mich. at TOL37 for loss of 1 yard.
87.2%
+28.4
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:52
Broc Lowry run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Lowry Run For Two-point Conversion)
+51.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
(00:17) Kneel down by Western Mich. at TOL37 for loss of 1 yard.
+28.4
TD · Q3 0:48
Broc Lowry run for 6 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke PAT MISSED)
+11.8